ConocoPhillips COP

NYSE · Petroleum Refining · $164.5B

Every report since 2023 →

No closes on file for COP yet.

Data provided by Databento (end of day). Next close = the first close after a story against the close before it; official daily closes only, not a call, not advice.

1 story has a settled next close so far (1 on the Wire). The record starts speaking at three.

The numbers

fiscal 2025, as filed with the SEC · 66-metric EOD snapshot via Databento

Market cap$164.5B

Enterprise value$181.4B

Revenue$58.9B +7.7%

EPS, diluted$6.35 −18.7%

Modern Valuation (EOD)

Market Cap$164.5B

Enterprise Value$181.4B

EV / True FCF—

EV / FCF—

EV / Gross Profit—

EV / EBIT—

EV / Sales3.08

P / E (GAAP)20.59

P / FCF—

P / Oper. CF8.31

P / Book2.55

Owner & Cash Yields

True FCF Yield—

FCF Yield—

Owner Earn. Yield—

Earnings Yield4.9%

Shareholder Yield+5.3%

Buyback Yield3.1%

Dividend Yield—

Dividend / sh$3.18

Payout Ratio50%

FCF / sh—

EPS (diluted)$6.35

Compounder & Returns

Rule of 40—

ROIC—

Cash ROIC (CROIC)—

GP / Assets—

ROE12.4%

ROA6.6%

Gross Margin—

Oper. Margin—

Net Margin13.6%

FCF Margin—

True FCF Margin—

Quality & Dilution

Cash Conversion—

Accrual Ratio−9.7%

SBC % of FCF—

SBC % of Rev0.6%

Reinvest. Rate0%

Sales Growth Y/Y+7.7%

Sales 3Y CAGR−9.1%

EPS Growth Y/Y−18.7%

FCF Growth Y/Y—

FCF 3Y CAGR—

Share Change Y/Y+6.1%

Balance Sheet & Scale

Revenue (FY)$58.9B

Gross Profit (FY)—

Oper. Income (FY)—

GAAP Net Income$8.0B

True FCF (ex-SBC)—

Cash & Equiv$6.9B

Total Debt$23.8B

Net Cash (Debt)$-16.9B

Net Cash % MCap−10.3%

Debt / FCF (yrs)—

Current Ratio1.301.18B sh

Price & Technicals (EOD)

Perf Week—

Perf Month—

Perf Quarter—

Perf Half Y—

Perf YTD—

SMA 20 Dist—

SMA 50 Dist—

SMA 100 Dist—

Window High—

Window Low—

RSI (14) · Vol—

Income Distribution & Cash Flow ConversionHow every dollar of COP revenue flows through cost of goods, operating expenses, taxes, GAAP net income, and dilution-adjusted free cash flow

Where Every $100 of Revenue Goes (FY2025)

Cost of Revenue (COGS)$22.3B ($37.9 / $100)

R&D Reinvestment$78.0M ($0.1 / $100)

SG&A & Other OpEx$893.0M ($1.5 / $100)

Tax & Non-Operating$28.6B ($48.6 / $100)

Net Profit Kept$8.0B ($11.9 / $100)

Earnings Quality: GAAP Profit → True Owner Cash (FY2025)

GAAP Net Income$8.0B (13.6% margin)

Operating Cash Flow (OCF)$19.8B(33.6% of rev)

Less: Capital Expenditures—

Standard Free Cash Flow (FCF)—

Less: Stock-Based Comp (SBC)−$336.0M

True FCF (Owner Cash ex-SBC)—

Revenue by fiscal year

Operating leverage — margins

GrossOperatingNet

Line Item (USD)	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	YoY Δ	4Y CAGR
Income Statement
Revenue	$45.8B	$78.5B	$56.1B	$54.7B	$58.9B	+7.7%	+6.5%
Cost of Revenue (COGS)	$18.2B	$34.0B	$22.0B	$20.0B	$22.3B	+11.6%	+5.3%
Research & Development (R&D)	$62.0M	$71.0M	$81.0M	$81.0M	$78.0M	−3.7%	+5.9%
Selling, General & Admin (SG&A)	$719.0M	$623.0M	$705.0M	$1.2B	$893.0M	−22.9%	+5.6%
Income Tax Expense	$4.6B	$9.5B	$5.3B	$4.4B	$4.7B	+5.4%	+0.2%
GAAP Net Income	$8.1B	$18.7B	$11.0B	$9.2B	$8.0B	−13.6%	−0.3%
Diluted EPS	$6.07	$14.57	$9.06	$7.81	$6.35	−18.7%	+1.1%
Diluted Shares	1.33B	1.28B	1.21B	1.18B	1.25B	+6.1%	−1.4%
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalents	$5.4B	$6.7B	$5.9B	$5.9B	$6.9B	+17.1%	+6.4%
Inventory	$1.2B	$1.2B	$1.4B	$1.8B	$1.9B	+3.5%	+11.6%
Total Current Assets	$16.1B	$18.7B	$14.3B	$15.6B	$15.5B	−0.7%	−0.8%
Total Assets	$90.7B	$93.8B	$95.9B	$122.8B	$121.9B	−0.7%	+7.7%
Total Current Liabilities	$12.0B	$12.8B	$10.0B	$12.1B	$12.0B	−1.3%	−0.1%
Total Debt (Short + Long Term)	$24.0B	$23.2B	$23.9B	$23.8B	$23.8B	−0.1%	−0.2%
Total Liabilities	$45.3B	$45.8B	$46.6B	$58.0B	$57.5B	−0.9%	+6.1%
Stockholders' Equity	$45.4B	$48.0B	$49.3B	$64.8B	$64.5B	−0.5%	+9.2%
Net Cash / (Net Debt)	$-18.6B	$-16.5B	$-18.0B	$-17.9B	$-16.9B	+5.7%	—
Invested Capital	$64.0B	$64.5B	$67.3B	$82.7B	$81.4B	−1.6%	+6.2%
Cash Flow & Capital Allocation
Operating Cash Flow (OCF)	$17.0B	$28.3B	$20.0B	$20.1B	$19.8B	−1.6%	+3.9%
Depreciation & Amortization (D&A)	$7.2B	$7.5B	$8.3B	$9.6B	$11.5B	+19.8%	+12.4%
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)	$304.0M	$377.0M	$334.0M	$268.0M	$336.0M	+25.4%	+2.5%
Share Repurchases (Buybacks)	$3.6B	$9.3B	$5.4B	$5.5B	$5.0B	−8.1%	+8.5%
Dividends Paid	$2.4B	$5.7B	$5.6B	$3.6B	$4.0B	+9.6%	+14.1%

Fundamentals, income distribution and multi-year statements from SEC EDGAR filings (public domain). Valuation multiples, performance and technicals computed from Databento 1D EOD closes. For information only, not investment advice.

On the Wire

what COP did at the next close after each story

Sep 1

Trump’s Venezuela Deal Leaves $100 Billion Question Unanswered

Bloomberg Television · 3:19 PM ET

+2.79%

Jul 6

Saudi Arabia cuts crude prices for Asian buyers amid US-Iran nuclear deal talks

Crypto Briefing · 12:44 PM ET

—

Jun 15

Oil prices fall to three-month lows as U.S. and Iran agree to 60-day ceasefire framework

MarketWatch · 8:25 AM ET

—

What happened · big days

12 big days in a year, and what we hold on each

A big day is a close more than 3.96% from the one before, three times COP’s median day (1.32%). On 9 of the 12, its peer group moved the same way at least half as far. We show what we hold. We never name a cause.

every other trading daya big day, numbered in the list below±3.96%Hover a bar for its day. Click a big day to open it.

Shaded: since our stories began, Jun 10. Tap a bar for its day.

#DayCOPWhat we hold that dayGroup (median of 4) · each

1 Dec 17, 2025+4.62%
Before our storiesgroup +0.1%, did not move with it
1Dec 17, 2025+4.62%
Before our stories
+0.1% did not move with itCVX +1.9 · VLO +0.1 · MPC −1.3
2 Jan 8, 2026+5.09%
Before our storiesgroup +2.6%, moved with COP
2Jan 8, 2026+5.09%
Before our stories
+2.6% moved with COPVLO +4.1 · MPC +2.6 · CVX +2.6
3 Jan 14, 2026+4.02%
Before our storiesgroup +2.6%, moved with COP
3Jan 14, 2026+4.02%
Before our stories
+2.6% moved with COPMPC +3.0 · VLO +2.6 · CVX +2.1
4 Mar 2, 2026+4.21%
Before our storiesgroup +5.0%, moved with COP
4Mar 2, 2026+4.21%
Before our stories
+5.0% moved with COPMPC +5.9 · VLO +5.0 · CVX +1.5
5 Apr 8, 2026−4.97%
Before our storiesgroup −4.7%, moved with COP
5Apr 8, 2026−4.97%
Before our stories
−4.7% moved with COPMPC −5.5 · VLO −4.7 · CVX −4.3
6 Apr 17, 2026−4.55%
Before our storiesgroup −5.5%, moved with COP
6Apr 17, 2026−4.55%
Before our stories
−5.5% moved with COPVLO −7.5 · MPC −5.5 · CVX −2.2
7 Jun 15, 2026−4.03%
Nothing on COPgroup −4.5%, moved with COP
7Jun 15, 2026−4.03%
Nothing on COPNo COP story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−4.5% moved with COPMPC −4.8 · VLO −4.5 · CVX −3.6
8 Jul 7, 2026+4.69%
Nothing on COPgroup −1.0%, did not move with it
8Jul 7, 2026+4.69%
Nothing on COPNo COP story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−1.0% did not move with itCVX +3.5 · MPC −1.0 · VLO −1.5
9 Aug 10, 2026+4.61%
Nothing on COPgroup +5.6%, moved with COP
9Aug 10, 2026+4.61%
Nothing on COPNo COP story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+5.6% moved with COPMPC +7.4 · VLO +5.6 · CVX +4.5
10 Sep 16, 2026−6.15%
Nothing on COPgroup +0.8%, did not move with it
10Sep 16, 2026−6.15%
Nothing on COPNo COP story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+0.8% did not move with itCVX −2.9 · MPC +0.8 · VLO +1.6
11 Nov 2, 2026−4.67%
Nothing on COPgroup −3.7%, moved with COP
11Nov 2, 2026−4.67%
Nothing on COPNo COP story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−3.7% moved with COPVLO −4.5 · XOM −4.0 · CVX −3.3 · MPC −3.2
12 Nov 4, 2026−5.17%
Nothing on COPgroup −5.2%, moved with COP
12Nov 4, 2026−5.17%
Nothing on COPNo COP story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−5.2% moved with COPMPC −8.1 · VLO −5.8 · XOM −4.6 · CVX −3.7

A story on the same day is not a cause, and a group move is not proof either. Group: the median of XOM, CVX, MPC and VLO that day, the largest companies in COP’s SEC industry; “moved with COP” means the same direction and at least half the size.

What’s next · results

Before the next report: what the first day after the last four did

Six trading days after each results filing (SEC 8-K, Item 2.02). COP reports before the open, so day 1 is that day’s close. 2 of 4 times, day 6 ended on the same side as day 1.

Reported Nov 6, 2025

day 1−2.33%day 6+1.96%

Reported Feb 5, 2026

day 1−2.43%day 6+3.01%

Reported Apr 30, 2026

day 1−1.93%day 6−10.42%

Reported Aug 6, 2026

day 1+1.50%day 6+8.24%

Next report: expected early FebruaryEstimated from the dates of its last four results filings. Not announced. Four reports is a small sample.

Every report since 2023 →

Each line is COP’s close against its close before the filing, on licensed end-of-day closes. What happened after each report, not a forecast; a move on the day is not a cause.

Same industry

COP against four refining peers, a year at 100

COP is up 57.7% in a year. Valero Energy is up 2.1 times, Marathon Petroleum 2.0 and Phillips 66 is up 88.2%. Of these four, only Chevron (+40.0%) did less. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, on a log scale so a twofold rise and a 40.0% rise both read honestly.

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COP +57.7%. Valero Energy ×2.1, Marathon Petroleum ×2.0, Phillips 66 +88.2%, Chevron +40.0%. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, log scale.

Share this chart

End-of-day closes (Databento EOD), the last close of each week. The four peers are the largest US-listed companies by market value in COP’s SEC industry (Petroleum Refining) with a year of closes. It shows what the closes did; a move here is not a cause, a forecast or a call.

The Wire at 7 AM ET, free. Top stories with a bull and a bear case on each, every morning. No account needed.

XOM	Exxon Mobil	$701.6B	—
CVX	Chevron	$428.7B	—
MPC	Marathon Petroleum	$110.3B	—
VLO	Valero Energy	$105.2B	—
PSX	Phillips 66	$103.6B	—
PBF	PBF Energy	$8.3B	—
CVI	CVR Energy	$4.3B	—
DK	Delek US	$4.0B	—