Oil prices dropped after U.S. and Iranian officials agreed to a ceasefire framework, with a 60-day window set for finalizing deal arrangements. Iranian crude exports have been suppressed by sanctions, and any durable agreement could add an estimated 1–1.5 mb/d of supply back to the global market, a meaningful increment against current OPEC+ balances.

The 60-day negotiating window is the key variable — markets are pricing some probability of a full deal, but the path to final agreement on a nuclear accord has historically been fragmented and reversible. Watch for OPEC+ response signals, any Iranian export pre-positioning, and whether the ceasefire holds through the negotiating period; a breakdown in talks would sharply reverse the initial price decline.