Bitcoin's recent decline has been primarily driven by macroeconomic factors rather than structural pressures from Strategy's activities, according to 10xResearch analyst Markus Thielen. The weakness stems from ETF outflows that were triggered following hotter-than-expected April U.S. inflation data, reflecting broader market sensitivity to price pressures and monetary policy implications. This distinction is important for understanding whether the sell-off represents genuine deterioration in crypto fundamentals or a cyclical reaction to inflation concerns.

Market participants are now focused on Wednesday's Consumer Price Index print as the critical near-term inflection point. Depending on whether the data shows cooling or persistent inflation, the current unwind could accelerate further or trigger a relief bounce that reverses some of bitcoin's losses. The outcome will likely shape positioning across both crypto and broader risk assets in the immediate term.