Strategy MSTR

Nasdaq · Finance Services · $39.6B
$129.30−9.29%Nov 5 close · Databento
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MSTR Wire Story Reactions & EOD Technical StudyDaily closes (Databento EOD) pinned with every AlgoThesis Wire story (dot colour = next trading day close) and SEC filing
Nov 5, 2026CLOSE $129.301D −9.29%3M +32.85%SMA20 $142.57SMA50 $144.60RSI(14) 41.6
129.30
RSI (14, Wilder EOD) · 70 Overbought / 30 OversoldRSI 41.6

Data provided by Databento (end of day). Next close = the first close after a story against the close before it; official daily closes only, not a call, not advice.

After a story on MSTR, the first close moved a median +1.25%. Up 2 of 4; over the next three trading days, a median −3.30%.

The numbers

fiscal 2025, as filed with the SEC · 66-metric EOD snapshot via Databento
Market cap$39.6B
Enterprise value$45.5B
Revenue$477.2M +3.0%
True FCF (ex-SBC)$-128.8M −34.7%
Rule of 40-12.8%
ROIC-7.6%
True FCF Yield-0.3%
EPS, diluted$-15.23 −151.3%
Modern Valuation (EOD)
Market Cap$39.6B
Enterprise Value$45.5B
EV / True FCF—
EV / FCF—
EV / Gross Profit138.79
EV / EBIT—
EV / Sales95.34
P / E (GAAP)—
P / FCF—
P / Oper. CF—
P / Book0.90
Owner & Cash Yields
True FCF Yield-0.3%
FCF Yield-0.2%
Owner Earn. Yield-9.8%
Earnings Yield-9.7%
Shareholder Yield−0.1%
Buyback Yield0.0%
Dividend Yield—
Dividend / sh—
Payout Ratio0%
FCF / sh—
EPS (diluted)$-15.23
Compounder & Returns
Rule of 40-12.8%
ROIC-7.6%
Cash ROIC (CROIC)-0.2%
GP / Assets0.5%
ROE-8.7%
ROA-6.2%
Gross Margin68.7%
Oper. Margin-1140.8%
Net Margin-806.3%
FCF Margin-15.8%
True FCF Margin-27.0%
Quality & Dilution
Cash Conversion—
Accrual Ratio−6.1%
SBC % of FCF—
SBC % of Rev11.2%
Reinvest. Rate—
Sales Growth Y/Y+3.0%
Sales 3Y CAGR−1.5%
EPS Growth Y/Y−151.3%
FCF Growth Y/Y−34.7%
FCF 3Y CAGR—
Share Change Y/Y+44.2%
Balance Sheet & Scale
Revenue (FY)$477.2M
Gross Profit (FY)$327.8M
Oper. Income (FY)$-5.4B
GAAP Net Income$-3.8B
True FCF (ex-SBC)$-128.8M
Cash & Equiv$2.3B
Total Debt$8.2B
Net Cash (Debt)$-5.9B
Net Cash % MCap−15.0%
Debt / FCF (yrs)—
Current Ratio5.62
Price & Technicals (EOD)
Perf Week−8.70%
Perf Month−15.69%
Perf Quarter+29.29%
Perf Half Y−28.10%
Perf YTD−24.30%
SMA 20 Dist−9.31%$142.57
SMA 50 Dist−10.58%$144.60
SMA 100 Dist+5.84%$122.16
Window High−34.01%$195.94
Window Low+57.09%$82.31
RSI (14) · Vol41.681%v
Income Distribution & Cash Flow ConversionHow every dollar of MSTR revenue flows through cost of goods, operating expenses, taxes, GAAP net income, and dilution-adjusted free cash flow
REVENUE · 100%$477.2MGROSS PROFIT · 68.7%$327.8MCOST OF REV · 31.3%$149.4MOPER. INCOME · -1140.8%$-5.4BOPEX · 1209.5%R&D $93.9MNET INCOME · -806.3%$-3.8B
Where Every $100 of Revenue Goes (FY2025)
Cost of Revenue (COGS)$149.4M ($31.3 / $100)
R&D Reinvestment$93.9M ($19.7 / $100)
Operating Expenses$5.7B ($100.0 / $100)
Tax & Non-Operating$0 ($0.0 / $100)
Net Profit Kept$-3.8B ($0.0 / $100)
Earnings Quality: GAAP Profit → True Owner Cash (FY2025)
GAAP Net Income$-3.8B (-806.3% margin)
Operating Cash Flow (OCF)$-67.2M(-14.1% of rev)
Less: Capital Expenditures−$8.2M(1.7% of rev)
Standard Free Cash Flow (FCF)$-75.5M(-15.8% margin)
Less: Stock-Based Comp (SBC)−$53.4M
True FCF (Owner Cash ex-SBC)$-128.8M(-27.0% of rev)

Operating leverage — margins

GrossOperatingNet
0%50%100%69%-1141%-806%FY21FY22FY23FY24FY25
Unlocked SEC EDGAR Accounting Statements (USD)All 3 statements · Common-size (% of Revenue / Assets) · YoY growth · Tap any core row to explain
Line Item (USD)FY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025YoY Δ4Y CAGRTrend
Income Statement
Cost of Revenue (COGS)$91.9M$103.0M$109.9M$129.5M$149.4M+15.4%+12.9%
Research & Development (R&D)$117.1M$127.4M$120.5M$118.5M$93.9M−20.8%−5.4%
Total Operating Expenses$1.2B$1.7B$501.4M$2.2B$5.8B+163.9%+48.0%
Income Tax Expense$-275.9M$147.3M$-553.6M$-767.7M$-1.7B−118.6%—
Diluted Shares10.0M113.2M165.7M192.5M277.7M+44.2%+129.4%
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalents$63.4M$43.8M$46.8M$38.1M$2.3B+5937.9%+145.5%
Total Current Assets$268.0M$264.6M$267.9M$252.3M$2.6B+916.2%+75.9%
Total Assets$3.6B$2.4B$4.8B$25.8B$61.6B+138.5%+104.0%
Total Current Liabilities$312.0M$317.4M$323.3M$355.4M$456.5M+28.5%+10.0%
Total Debt (Short + Long Term)$2.2B$2.4B$2.2B$7.2B$8.2B+14.3%+39.8%
Total Liabilities$2.6B$2.8B$2.6B$7.6B$10.6B+39.2%+42.4%
Stockholders' Equity$979.0M$-383.1M$2.2B$31.0B$44.1B+42.4%+159.1%
Net Cash / (Net Debt)$-2.1B$-2.3B$-2.1B$-7.2B$-5.9B+17.2%—
Invested Capital$3.1B$2.0B$4.3B$38.1B$50.0B+31.2%+100.9%
Cash Flow & Capital Allocation
Depreciation & Amortization (D&A)$11.4M$10.9M$14.5M$17.8M$25.5M+43.3%+22.4%
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)$44.1M$63.6M$69.6M$77.1M$53.4M−30.8%+4.9%
Capital Expenditures (CapEx)$2.7M$2.5M$2.9M$3.0M$8.2M+175.8%+32.0%
True FCF (ex-SBC Owner Cash)$47.0M$-62.9M$-59.8M$-133.1M$-128.8M+3.2%—
Share Repurchases (Buybacks)$0$0——$0——
Dividends Paid————$0——

Fundamentals, income distribution and multi-year statements from SEC EDGAR filings (public domain). Valuation multiples, performance and technicals computed from Databento 1D EOD closes. For information only, not investment advice.

On the Wire

what MSTR did at the next close after each story
Oct 13−0.33%
Sep 14+4.56%
Aug 24+2.83%
Aug 11−1.27%
Jun 24—
Jun 23—
Jun 18—
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