Michael Burry, the Scion Asset Management founder famed for his 2008 mortgage short, has initiated a short position in Tesla, which he described as 'finally' doing so — implying he had been watching for an entry point. The timing is notable: Q2 2025 delivery numbers are imminent, a binary data point that often swings TSLA by double digits in either direction.

Gary Black, a former institutional Tesla bull and frequent commentator on the stock, says he models a Q2 delivery beat relative to consensus estimates — but crucially, still won't buy the stock. That combination of 'beat expectations, still won't own it' is a meaningful signal about the bull-bear tension in TSLA's current setup. Both Burry and Black, coming from opposite camps, are effectively expressing skepticism about the equity at current prices.

Tesla's fundamentals frame the difficulty: FY2025 revenue is running at $94.8B, down 2.9% year-over-year, gross margins sit at 18.0% — respectable but pressured by aggressive pricing — and net margins have compressed to 4.1%. Diluted EPS of $1.08 against a stock trading at a significant premium leaves the valuation highly sensitive to delivery trajectory and any guidance language around margins.

The bull case rests on a delivery beat triggering a momentum squeeze — TSLA has a historically large short interest and can run violently on positive surprises. The bear case is that even a beat may not resolve the deeper issues: revenue contraction YoY, margin compression, and no credible near-term catalyst to re-accelerate growth, which is exactly what Burry and Black's shared skepticism reflects.

Watchers should track the headline delivery number vs. the Street consensus, any color on pricing per vehicle (a margin proxy), and whether Musk offers forward guidance on new model timelines. A miss would validate the Burry short; a beat followed by a rally fade would validate Black's 'beat but don't own' framing.