Fed Governor Christopher Waller flagged near-term rate hikes, triggering a broad risk-off session with Bitcoin, equities, and bonds all selling off simultaneously. The correlation underscores how macro rate expectations continue to dominate crypto price action, something that was less true in prior cycles.

Liquidations tracked by CoinGlass were running at roughly one-sixth of the 30-day peak, meaning the forced-sell cascade that typically amplifies crypto drawdowns has not yet materialized at scale. That is a double-edged data point: it suggests the move has been relatively orderly so far, but also that significant leveraged longs remain open and could feed additional selling.

The key tension is whether Waller's comments represent a genuine policy pivot toward additional hikes or are a hawkish shot across the bow that gets walked back. If the market reprices the Fed's terminal rate meaningfully higher, risk assets — especially high-beta crypto — face renewed multiple compression. Bitcoin's sensitivity to real rates has been well-documented in 2022-2023.

What to watch: Fed Funds futures for any shift in the implied path, Bitcoin's ability to hold key technical support levels, and whether liquidation volumes accelerate toward the 30-day highs. A pickup in liquidations toward those prior extremes would confirm the sell-off is entering a more dangerous, momentum-driven phase.