NatPower, Tesla reach deal on first phase of $5 billion battery storage plan
1 min readAnalysis by AlgoThesis Editorial Desk
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The story
NatPower and Tesla have struck a deal on the first phase of a $5 billion battery storage partnership, a notable contract for Tesla's Energy Generation & Storage segment which has been one of the company's faster-growing divisions. This comes as Tesla's overall revenue declined 2.9% YoY to $94.8B in FY2025, with net margins compressed to just 4.1% and diluted EPS at $1.08, making meaningful new Energy revenue more important to the bull thesis.
The headline is light on specifics — phase sizing, delivery schedule, and margin profile on the contract are all unknown — which limits how much this moves the needle quantitatively. Investors will watch for confirmation of Megapack production capacity being sufficient to fulfill the deal and whether subsequent phases get announced, as Energy becoming a larger share of Tesla's mix could structurally re-rate the stock.
The two-sided take
The house read
Two-sidedWrong ifIf phase 1 is a small fraction of the $5B headline and delivery extends beyond 2026, the market quickly discounts the news; additionally, if Megapack production is capacity-constrained, the deal could actually highlight bottlenecks rather than growth.
Published read · research, not advice