Intel's chip business is generating cautious optimism after a prolonged stretch of manufacturing delays, market share erosion against TSMC and AMD, and leadership turnover. The NYT piece frames Intel as the flagship of the Trump administration's push to reshore semiconductor production to the U.S., giving the stock a political tailwind that goes beyond pure fundamentals.
The enrichment data tells a more sobering story: FY2025 revenue of $52.9B is essentially flat year-over-year (-0.5%), gross margins sit at a modest 34.8%, and diluted EPS is barely negative at -$0.06 — meaning Intel is running at breakeven at best, with no real earnings engine yet rebuilt. Net margin is effectively zero. These are not the numbers of a confirmed turnaround; they are the numbers of a company that has stopped bleeding out.
The bull case rests on the CHIPS Act funding pipeline, Intel Foundry Services as a long-term revenue diversifier, and the idea that geopolitical tailwinds make Intel strategically untouchable. If IFS wins meaningful external customers and margins inflect upward, the operating leverage could be substantial given the fixed-cost nature of fabs.
The bear case is equally concrete: Intel is still losing ground in data center CPUs to AMD, has not proven it can manufacture at competitive nodes, and gross margins of 34.8% lag TSMC and Nvidia by a wide margin. Any slowdown in government support or a delay in next-gen process nodes could push the stock back toward cycle lows.
The honest read here is a genuinely two-sided setup — political and structural tailwinds versus weak near-term financials and competitive headwinds. The trade lacks a clear near-term catalyst date, making sizing and timeframe difficult to pin down.