Crude oil fell sharply to its lowest level in roughly 3.5 months after the U.S. and Iran reached a ceasefire agreement, removing a key geopolitical risk premium that had supported prices. Iran holds significant spare capacity — potentially 1–2 mb/d of additional supply — and any diplomatic thaw raises the prospect of sanctions relief and increased Iranian exports hitting an already-cautious market.

The setup now hinges on whether the deal holds and translates into actual sanctions relief, or whether it stalls in implementation. Watch OPEC+ response, Brent/WTI spreads, and energy equity names like XOM, CVX, OXY, and refiners for follow-through; a sustained break lower in crude would pressure upstream earnings estimates heading into next quarter.