Goldman Sachs lifted its Q2 delivery estimate for Tesla, bucking the trend of a broad auto industry sales downturn — a signal that Tesla may be gaining incremental market share or benefiting from promotional pricing at a time when legacy OEMs are struggling. However, the enrichment data is sobering: FY2025 revenue is tracking at $94.8B, down 2.9% YoY, with gross margins at 18.0% and net margins compressed to just 4.1%, suggesting that volume is being bought with price.
The Q2 delivery print is the near-term catalyst to watch — a beat could drive a sentiment re-rating, but the market will quickly pivot to asking whether deliveries came at the cost of further margin erosion. If Goldman's raised forecast proves accurate but margins disappoint, any delivery-driven rally could be faded hard into the earnings call.