In his first rate decision as Fed chair, Kevin Warsh held the benchmark rate unchanged but signaled the next move would be a rate increase, a notably hawkish tilt relative to prior market expectations of cuts. The pivot in forward guidance is the key development — not the hold itself — and it marks a clean break from the dovish-leaning trajectory many had priced in.

The immediate setup is a flatter-to-inverted re-pricing of rate-sensitive sectors: REITs, utilities, and long-duration Treasuries face renewed headwinds, while the dollar and financials (particularly banks with asset-sensitive balance sheets) could catch a bid. Watch the next CPI print and any Warsh speeches for confirmation of the hiking timeline, as the signal is directional but not yet dated.