Fed rate hike on Wednesday now likely, say economists, and at least one more to follow: Reuters Poll
Economists now expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates on Wednesday, with at least one more increase also projected, according to a Reuters poll. The shift tightens the rate path and raises the risk that policy-sensitive assets face renewed pressure beyond this week’s decision.
The Reuters poll found economists now see a Federal Reserve rate hike on Wednesday as likely and expect at least one additional increase afterward. The report did not specify the expected size of the move, the number of economists surveyed or the timing of the further hike.
That outlook represents a change in the economists’ expected path relative to the prior consensus referenced by Reuters, although the excerpt did not provide the earlier probability or forecast. The story was published on September 14, ahead of the Fed’s Wednesday decision.
The direct mechanism runs through the federal funds rate and the discount rate applied across financial markets. A higher expected policy path can lift borrowing costs and weigh on interest-rate-sensitive assets, while changing the relative appeal of cash and short-duration instruments.
The Reuters report did not identify the economists polled individually or detail the assumptions behind the forecast. It also did not establish that the Fed has committed to either Wednesday’s move or another increase; the reported evidence is an economist survey rather than a policy announcement.
The next decisive event is the Federal Reserve’s Wednesday rate decision and accompanying communication. The size of the move, the updated projections and Chair Jerome Powell’s guidance on the path after Wednesday would determine whether the poll marks a durable repricing or an expectation that is already reflected in markets.
The Reuters poll shifts the macro risk toward tighter policy, with no single-company read to attach.
The immediate consequence is a tighter expected policy path, with the Wednesday decision and subsequent guidance determining whether the repricing extends beyond the initial move. The absence of a specified hike size, named respondents or market positioning limits a more precise directional call across assets.
The Fed could leave rates unchanged or signal fewer subsequent increases than economists expect, unwinding the reported tightening bias.
CoverageSource: Reuters · Published here MON, SEP 14 · 8:32 AM ET · the only report in this recordHow this is decided →
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For rate-sensitive assets, the strongest positive case is that the poll’s expectation is already reflected before Wednesday and the Fed delivers no more hawkish signal.
The tightening case is that economists now expect a Wednesday hike plus at least one more increase, extending pressure on assets exposed to higher discount rates.
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