Quantum-Si QSI

Nasdaq · Measuring & Controlling Devices, Nec · $255M

$1.17−9.30%Nov 5 close · Databento

Every report since 2023 →

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QSI Wire Story Reactions & EOD Technical StudyDaily closes (Databento EOD) pinned with every AlgoThesis Wire story (dot colour = next trading day close) and SEC filing

Nov 5, 2026CLOSE $1.171D −9.30%3M +48.08%SMA20 $1.36SMA50 $1.08RSI(14) 46.0

1.17

RSI (14, Wilder EOD) · 70 Overbought / 30 OversoldRSI 46.0

Data provided by Databento (end of day). Next close = the first close after a story against the close before it; official daily closes only, not a call, not advice.

The numbers

fiscal 2025, as filed with the SEC · 66-metric EOD snapshot via Databento

Market cap$255M

Enterprise value$233.5M

Revenue$2.4M −20.3%

True FCF (ex-SBC)$-108.0M −5.3%

Rule of 40-4011.8%

ROIC-58.5%

True FCF Yield-42.3%

EPS, diluted$-0.51 +28.2%

Modern Valuation (EOD)

Market Cap$255M

Enterprise Value$233.5M

EV / True FCF—

EV / FCF—

EV / Gross Profit202.50

EV / EBIT—

EV / Sales95.84

P / E (GAAP)—

P / FCF—

P / Oper. CF—

P / Book1.16

Owner & Cash Yields

True FCF Yield-42.3%

FCF Yield-38.1%

Owner Earn. Yield-43.2%

Earnings Yield-39.7%

Shareholder Yield—

Buyback Yield—

Dividend Yield—

Dividend / sh—

Payout Ratio—

FCF / sh—

EPS (diluted)$-0.51

Compounder & Returns

Rule of 40-4011.8%

ROIC-58.5%

Cash ROIC (CROIC)-49.0%

GP / Assets0.5%

ROE-46.0%

ROA-41.3%

Gross Margin47.3%

Oper. Margin-4766.0%

Net Margin-4160.1%

FCF Margin-3991.5%

True FCF Margin-4433.8%

Quality & Dilution

Cash Conversion—

Accrual Ratio−2.7%

SBC % of FCF—

SBC % of Rev442.2%

Reinvest. Rate—

Sales Growth Y/Y−20.3%

Sales 3Y CAGR—

EPS Growth Y/Y+28.2%

FCF Growth Y/Y−5.3%

FCF 3Y CAGR—

Share Change Y/Y+38.1%

Balance Sheet & Scale

Revenue (FY)$2.4M

Gross Profit (FY)$1.2M

Oper. Income (FY)$-116.1M

GAAP Net Income$-101.3M

True FCF (ex-SBC)$-108.0M

Cash & Equiv$21.6M

Total Debt—

Net Cash (Debt)$21.6M

Net Cash % MCap+8.5%

Debt / FCF (yrs)—

Current Ratio7.64

Price & Technicals (EOD)

Perf Week−33.14%

Perf Month−8.59%

Perf Quarter+43.66%

Perf Half Y+19.31%

Perf YTD+15.84%

SMA 20 Dist−14.00%$1.36

SMA 50 Dist+8.32%$1.08

SMA 100 Dist+22.50%$0.96

Window High−33.14%$1.75

Window Low+66.60%$0.70

RSI (14) · Vol46.0175%v

Income Distribution & Cash Flow ConversionHow every dollar of QSI revenue flows through cost of goods, operating expenses, taxes, GAAP net income, and dilution-adjusted free cash flow

Where Every $100 of Revenue Goes (FY2025)

Cost of Revenue (COGS)$1.3M ($52.7 / $100)

R&D Reinvestment$53.8M ($100.0 / $100)

SG&A & Other OpEx$63.5M ($200.0 / $100)

Tax & Non-Operating$0 ($0.0 / $100)

Net Profit Kept$-101.3M ($0.0 / $100)

Earnings Quality: GAAP Profit → True Owner Cash (FY2025)

GAAP Net Income$-101.3M (-4160.1% margin)

Operating Cash Flow (OCF)$-94.7M(-3888.2% of rev)

Less: Capital Expenditures−$2.5M(103.3% of rev)

Standard Free Cash Flow (FCF)$-97.2M(-3991.5% margin)

Less: Stock-Based Comp (SBC)−$10.8M

True FCF (Owner Cash ex-SBC)$-108.0M(-4433.8% of rev)

Revenue by fiscal year

Operating leverage — margins

GrossOperatingNet

Line Item (USD)	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	YoY Δ	4Y CAGR
Income Statement
Revenue	$0	$0	$1.1M	$3.1M	$2.4M	−20.3%	—
Cost of Revenue (COGS)	$0	$0	$594,000	$1.5M	$1.3M	−12.0%	—
Gross Profit	$0	$0	$488,000	$1.6M	$1.2M	−27.9%	—
Research & Development (R&D)	$46.6M	$72.1M	$67.0M	$59.6M	$53.8M	−9.9%	+3.7%
Selling, General & Admin (SG&A)	$50.3M	$42.3M	$44.6M	$50.5M	$44.8M	−11.4%	−2.9%
Total Operating Expenses	$96.9M	$123.8M	$111.7M	$110.2M	$117.3M	+6.4%	+4.9%
Operating Income (EBIT)	$-96.9M	$-123.8M	$-111.2M	$-108.6M	$-116.1M	−6.9%	—
Interest Expense	$5,000	$0	—	—	$0	—	—
Income Tax Expense	$0	$0	$0	$56,000	$58,000	+3.6%	—
GAAP Net Income	$-95.0M	$-132.4M	$-96.0M	$-101.0M	$-101.3M	−0.3%	—
Diluted EPS	$-1.19	$-0.95	$-0.68	$-0.71	$-0.51	+28.2%	—
Diluted Shares	79.6M	139.3M	141.3M	143.2M	197.8M	+38.1%	+25.6%
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalents	$35.8M	$84.3M	$133.9M	$49.2M	$21.6M	−56.1%	−11.8%
Inventory	$1.6M	$0	$3.9M	$4.1M	$3.2M	−21.4%	+18.2%
Total Current Assets	$477.2M	$358.2M	$266.3M	$218.0M	$175.9M	−19.3%	−22.1%
Total Assets	$503.2M	$391.5M	$298.3M	$247.9M	$245.6M	−0.9%	−16.4%
Total Current Liabilities	$11.5M	$15.7M	$11.6M	$18.2M	$23.0M	+26.6%	+18.9%
Total Liabilities	$26.2M	$32.8M	$26.6M	$32.5M	$25.4M	−21.8%	−0.8%
Stockholders' Equity	$477.0M	$358.7M	$271.6M	$215.4M	$220.2M	+2.2%	−17.6%
Net Cash / (Net Debt)	$35.8M	$84.3M	$133.9M	$49.2M	$21.6M	−56.1%	−11.8%
Invested Capital	$441.2M	$274.4M	$137.8M	$166.2M	$198.6M	+19.5%	−18.1%
Cash Flow & Capital Allocation
Operating Cash Flow (OCF)	$-66.8M	$-90.6M	$-94.0M	$-87.8M	$-94.7M	−7.9%	—
Depreciation & Amortization (D&A)	$1.0M	$2.6M	$4.2M	$4.6M	$4.5M	−3.2%	+43.8%
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)	$24.9M	$11.2M	$8.5M	$8.9M	$10.8M	+21.2%	−18.9%
Capital Expenditures (CapEx)	$5.8M	$10.7M	$4.5M	$4.6M	$2.5M	−45.1%	−18.7%
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	$-72.6M	$-101.3M	$-98.5M	$-92.4M	$-97.2M	−5.3%	—
True FCF (ex-SBC Owner Cash)	$-97.5M	$-112.5M	$-107.1M	$-101.3M	$-108.0M	−6.7%	—

Fundamentals, income distribution and multi-year statements from SEC EDGAR filings (public domain). Valuation multiples, performance and technicals computed from Databento 1D EOD closes. For information only, not investment advice.

On the Wire

what QSI did at the next close after each story

No Wire story has named QSI yet.

What happened · big days

19 big days in a year, and what we hold on each

A big day is a close more than 10.01% from the one before, three times QSI’s median day (3.34%). On 0 of the 19, its peer group moved the same way at least half as far. We show what we hold. We never name a cause.

every other trading daya big day, numbered in the list below±10.01%Hover a bar for its day. Click a big day to open it.

Shaded: since our stories began, Jun 10. Tap a bar for its day.

#DayQSIWhat we hold that dayGroup (median of 4) · each

1 Feb 6, 2026+14.26%
Before our storiesgroup +2.7%, did not move with it
1Feb 6, 2026+14.26%
Before our stories
+2.7% did not move with itONTO +10.4 · TRMB +3.4 · ROK +2.0 · TMO +0.1
2 Mar 10, 2026+12.32%
Before our storiesgroup −1.2%, did not move with it
2Mar 10, 2026+12.32%
Before our stories
−1.2% did not move with itONTO +1.1 · ROK −0.4 · TMO −1.9 · TRMB −2.1
3 Apr 15, 2026+24.88%
Before our storiesgroup −0.3%, did not move with it
3Apr 15, 2026+24.88%
Before our stories
−0.3% did not move with itTMO +0.8 · TRMB +0.4 · ONTO −1.0 · ROK −1.9
4 Apr 23, 2026−11.26%
Before our storiesgroup −2.3%, did not move with it
4Apr 23, 2026−11.26%
Before our stories
−2.3% did not move with itTMO −9.2 · TRMB −3.0 · ONTO −1.7 · ROK +0.5
5 Apr 30, 2026+13.39%
Before our storiesgroup +2.5%, did not move with it
5Apr 30, 2026+13.39%
Before our stories
+2.5% did not move with itONTO +3.8 · TMO +2.7 · ROK +2.2 · TRMB +1.6
6 May 21, 2026+13.05%
Before our storiesgroup −0.3%, did not move with it
6May 21, 2026+13.05%
Before our stories
−0.3% did not move with itROK +0.9 · TRMB 0.0 · TMO −0.5 · ONTO −0.6
7 Jun 5, 2026−17.97%
Before our storiesgroup −3.0%, did not move with it
7Jun 5, 2026−17.97%
Before our stories
−3.0% did not move with itONTO −7.8 · ROK −3.4 · TRMB −2.7 · TMO −1.9
8 Aug 25, 2026+10.14%
Nothing on QSIgroup −0.1%, did not move with it
8Aug 25, 2026+10.14%
Nothing on QSINo QSI story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−0.1% did not move with itONTO +3.1 · ROK −0.1 · TMO −0.1 · TRMB −2.0
9 Sep 29, 2026+20.52%
Nothing on QSIgroup +0.1%, did not move with it
9Sep 29, 2026+20.52%
Nothing on QSINo QSI story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+0.1% did not move with itONTO +5.5 · TMO +0.1 · ROK +0.1 · TRMB −0.3
10 Sep 30, 2026+11.68%
Nothing on QSIgroup +0.2%, did not move with it
10Sep 30, 2026+11.68%
Nothing on QSINo QSI story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+0.2% did not move with itONTO +1.0 · ROK +0.9 · TRMB −0.4 · TMO −0.7
11 Oct 1, 2026+33.64%
Nothing on QSIgroup +1.2%, did not move with it
11Oct 1, 2026+33.64%
Nothing on QSINo QSI story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+1.2% did not move with itONTO +2.3 · ROK +1.6 · TRMB +0.7 · TMO −3.3
12 Oct 5, 2026−17.42%
Nothing on QSIgroup +1.2%, did not move with it
12Oct 5, 2026−17.42%
Nothing on QSINo QSI story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+1.2% did not move with itONTO −0.7 · ROK +0.2 · TRMB +2.2 · TMO +3.4
13 Oct 9, 2026+25.41%
Nothing on QSIgroup +0.5%, did not move with it
13Oct 9, 2026+25.41%
Nothing on QSINo QSI story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+0.5% did not move with itTMO +0.9 · ONTO +0.6 · TRMB +0.4 · ROK −0.4
14 Oct 12, 2026−11.11%
Nothing on QSIgroup −0.3%, did not move with it
14Oct 12, 2026−11.11%
Nothing on QSINo QSI story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−0.3% did not move with itONTO −7.1 · TRMB −1.0 · ROK +0.3 · TMO +0.6
15 Oct 16, 2026−14.50%
Nothing on QSIgroup −1.7%, did not move with it
15Oct 16, 2026−14.50%
Nothing on QSINo QSI story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−1.7% did not move with itONTO −4.8 · TRMB −2.5 · TMO −0.9 · ROK +1.0
16 Oct 23, 2026+21.74%
Nothing on QSIgroup −0.2%, did not move with it
16Oct 23, 2026+21.74%
Nothing on QSINo QSI story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−0.2% did not move with itROK +0.5 · ONTO +0.0 · TMO −0.4 · TRMB −0.8
17 Oct 27, 2026+13.01%
Nothing on QSIgroup +1.7%, did not move with it
17Oct 27, 2026+13.01%
Nothing on QSINo QSI story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+1.7% did not move with itONTO +5.2 · ROK +2.2 · TMO +1.2 · TRMB −0.3
18 Oct 30, 2026−16.57%
Nothing on QSIgroup −2.5%, did not move with it
18Oct 30, 2026−16.57%
Nothing on QSINo QSI story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−2.5% did not move with itONTO −9.2 · ROK −3.4 · TMO −1.7 · TRMB −0.6
19 Nov 2, 2026−13.70%
Nothing on QSIgroup −0.6%, did not move with it
19Nov 2, 2026−13.70%
Nothing on QSINo QSI story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−0.6% did not move with itONTO −5.0 · TMO −2.1 · ROK +0.9 · TRMB +1.4

A story on the same day is not a cause, and a group move is not proof either. Group: the median of TMO, ROK, TRMB and ONTO that day, the largest companies in QSI’s SEC industry; “moved with QSI” means the same direction and at least half the size.

What’s next · results

Before the next report: what the first day after the last four did

Six trading days after each results filing (SEC 8-K, Item 2.02). QSI reports after the close, so day 1 is the next close. 2 of 4 times, day 6 ended on the same side as day 1.

Reported Nov 5, 2025

day 1−8.33%day 6−22.78%

Reported Mar 3, 2026

day 1−4.01%day 6+10.76%

Reported May 7, 2026

day 1−7.55%day 6−9.23%

Reported Aug 13, 2026

day 1−6.35%day 6+5.70%

Next report: expected early FebruaryEstimated from the dates of its last four results filings. Not announced. Four reports is a small sample.

Every report since 2023 →

Each line is QSI’s close against its close before the filing, on licensed end-of-day closes. What happened after each report, not a forecast; a move on the day is not a cause.

Same industry

QSI against four same-industry peers, a year at 100

QSI is down 25.7% in a year. Thermo Fisher Scientific is up 18.3%, Onto Innovation 12.2% and Rockwell Automation 2.0%. Of these four, only Trimble (−32.0%) did less. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, on a log scale, so the same percentage move is the same height on every line.

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QSI −25.7%. Thermo Fisher Scientific +18.3%, Onto Innovation +12.2%, Rockwell Automation +2.0%, Trimble −32.0%. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, log scale.

Share this chart

End-of-day closes (Databento EOD), the last close of each week. The four peers are the largest US-listed companies by market value in QSI’s SEC industry (Measuring & Controlling Devices, Nec) with a year of closes. It shows what the closes did; a move here is not a cause, a forecast or a call.

The Wire at 7 AM ET, free. Top stories with a bull and a bear case on each, every morning. No account needed.

TMO	Thermo Fisher Scientific	$261.1B	−4.14%
ROK	Rockwell Automation	$49.3B	−14.15%
TRMB	Trimble	$12.7B	−1.12%
ONTO	Onto Innovation	$9.1B	−15.60%
MIR	Mirion Technologies	$4.7B	−4.67%
OWLT	Owlet	$132M	−6.40%
GEOS	Geospace Technologies	$51M	−8.63%
BCHT	Birchtech	$29M	−6.36%