UnitedHealth UNH

NYSE · Hospital & Medical Service Plans · $367.5B

$395.72−3.34%Nov 5 close · Databento

Every report since 2023 →

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UNH Wire Story Reactions & EOD Technical StudyDaily closes (Databento EOD) pinned with every AlgoThesis Wire story (dot colour = next trading day close) and SEC filing

Nov 5, 2026CLOSE $395.721D −3.34%3M −3.19%SMA20 $404.08SMA50 $390.67RSI(14) 47.2

395.72

RSI (14, Wilder EOD) · 70 Overbought / 30 OversoldRSI 47.2

Data provided by Databento (end of day). Next close = the first close after a story against the close before it; official daily closes only, not a call, not advice.

1 story has a settled next close so far (1 on the Wire). The record starts speaking at three.

The numbers

fiscal 2025, as filed with the SEC · 66-metric EOD snapshot via Databento

Market cap$367.5B

EV / True FCF27.9x

Revenue$447.6B +11.8%

True FCF (ex-SBC)$15.1B −22.4%

Rule of 4015.4%

ROIC10.7%

True FCF Yield4.1%

EPS, diluted$13.23 −14.7%

Modern Valuation (EOD)

Market Cap$367.5B

Enterprise Value$421.5B

EV / True FCF27.91

EV / FCF26.22

EV / Gross Profit—

EV / EBIT22.23

EV / Sales0.94

P / E (GAAP)30.48

P / FCF22.86

P / Oper. CF18.66

P / Book3.67

Owner & Cash Yields

True FCF Yield4.1%

FCF Yield4.4%

Owner Earn. Yield3.2%

Earnings Yield3.3%

Shareholder Yield+3.4%

Buyback Yield1.5%

Dividend Yield2.21%

Dividend / sh$8.73

Payout Ratio66%

FCF / sh$17.94

EPS (diluted)$13.23

Compounder & Returns

Rule of 4015.4%

ROIC10.7%

Cash ROIC (CROIC)10.4%

GP / Assets—

ROE12.0%

ROA3.9%

Gross Margin—

Oper. Margin4.2%

Net Margin2.7%

FCF Margin3.6%

True FCF Margin3.4%

Quality & Dilution

Cash Conversion133%

Accrual Ratio−2.5%

SBC % of FCF6.0%

SBC % of Rev0.2%

Reinvest. Rate18%

Sales Growth Y/Y+11.8%

Sales 3Y CAGR+11.4%

EPS Growth Y/Y−14.7%

FCF Growth Y/Y−22.4%

FCF 3Y CAGR−11.8%

Share Change Y/Y−1.9%

Balance Sheet & Scale

Revenue (FY)$447.6B

Gross Profit (FY)—

Oper. Income (FY)$19.0B

GAAP Net Income$12.1B

True FCF (ex-SBC)$15.1B

Cash & Equiv$24.4B

Total Debt$78.4B

Net Cash (Debt)$-54.0B

Net Cash % MCap−14.7%

Debt / FCF (yrs)4.9y

Current Ratio0.79896.02M sh

Price & Technicals (EOD)

Perf Week−3.70%

Perf Month+5.25%

Perf Quarter−2.79%

Perf Half Y+7.03%

Perf YTD+22.33%

SMA 20 Dist−2.07%$404.08

SMA 50 Dist+1.29%$390.67

SMA 100 Dist−1.55%$401.94

Window High−9.31%$436.35

Window Low+22.33%$323.48

RSI (14) · Vol47.231%v

Income Distribution & Cash Flow ConversionHow every dollar of UNH revenue flows through cost of goods, operating expenses, taxes, GAAP net income, and dilution-adjusted free cash flow

Where Every $100 of Revenue Goes (FY2025)

Cost of Revenue (COGS)$50.7B ($11.3 / $100)

SG&A & Other OpEx$377.9B ($84.4 / $100)

Tax & Non-Operating$6.9B ($1.5 / $100)

Net Profit Kept$12.1B ($2.7 / $100)

Earnings Quality: GAAP Profit → True Owner Cash (FY2025)

GAAP Net Income$12.1B (2.7% margin)

Operating Cash Flow (OCF)$19.7B(4.4% of rev)

Less: Capital Expenditures−$3.6B(0.8% of rev)

Standard Free Cash Flow (FCF)$16.1B(3.6% margin)

Less: Stock-Based Comp (SBC)−$971.0M(6.0% of FCF)

True FCF (Owner Cash ex-SBC)$15.1B(3.4% of rev)

Revenue by fiscal year

Operating leverage — margins

GrossOperatingNet

Line Item (USD)	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	YoY Δ	4Y CAGR
Income Statement
Revenue	$287.6B	$324.2B	$371.6B	$400.3B	$447.6B	+11.8%	+11.7%
Cost of Revenue (COGS)	$31.0B	$33.7B	$38.8B	$46.7B	$50.7B	+8.5%	+13.0%
Selling, General & Admin (SG&A)	$42.6B	$47.8B	$54.6B	$53.0B	$59.6B	+12.4%	+8.8%
Operating Income (EBIT)	$24.0B	$28.4B	$32.4B	$32.3B	$19.0B	−41.3%	−5.7%
Interest Expense	$1.7B	$2.1B	$3.2B	$3.9B	$4.0B	+2.5%	+24.6%
Income Tax Expense	$4.6B	$5.7B	$6.0B	$4.8B	$1.9B	−60.9%	−19.8%
GAAP Net Income	$17.3B	$20.1B	$22.4B	$14.4B	$12.1B	−16.3%	−8.6%
Diluted EPS	$18.08	$21.18	$23.86	$15.51	$13.23	−14.7%	−7.5%
Diluted Shares	956.0M	950.0M	938.0M	929.0M	911.0M	−1.9%	−1.2%
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalents	$21.4B	$23.4B	$25.4B	$25.3B	$24.4B	−3.7%	+3.3%
Inventory	$2.9B	$3.5B	$2.8B	$3.8B	$3.3B	−13.2%	+3.3%
Total Current Assets	$61.8B	$69.1B	$78.4B	$85.8B	$90.6B	+5.6%	+10.0%
Total Assets	$212.2B	$245.7B	$273.7B	$298.3B	$309.6B	+3.8%	+9.9%
Total Current Liabilities	$78.3B	$89.2B	$99.1B	$103.8B	$114.9B	+10.7%	+10.1%
Total Debt (Short + Long Term)	$46.0B	$57.6B	$62.5B	$76.9B	$78.4B	+1.9%	+14.3%
Total Liabilities	$135.7B	$159.4B	$174.8B	$195.7B	$207.9B	+6.2%	+11.2%
Stockholders' Equity	$75.0B	$81.5B	$94.4B	$98.3B	$100.1B	+1.9%	+7.5%
Net Cash / (Net Debt)	$-24.6B	$-34.3B	$-37.1B	$-51.6B	$-54.0B	−4.7%	—
Invested Capital	$99.7B	$115.7B	$131.5B	$149.9B	$154.1B	+2.8%	+11.5%
Cash Flow & Capital Allocation
Operating Cash Flow (OCF)	$22.3B	$26.2B	$29.1B	$24.2B	$19.7B	−18.6%	−3.1%
Depreciation & Amortization (D&A)	$3.1B	$3.4B	$4.0B	$4.1B	$4.4B	+6.4%	+8.9%
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)	$800.0M	$925.0M	$1.1B	$1.0B	$971.0M	−4.6%	+5.0%
Capital Expenditures (CapEx)	$2.5B	$2.8B	$3.4B	$3.5B	$3.6B	+3.5%	+10.2%
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	$19.9B	$23.4B	$25.7B	$20.7B	$16.1B	−22.4%	−5.2%
True FCF (ex-SBC Owner Cash)	$19.1B	$22.5B	$24.6B	$19.7B	$15.1B	−23.3%	−5.7%
Share Repurchases (Buybacks)	$5.0B	$7.0B	$8.0B	$9.0B	$5.5B	−38.4%	+2.6%
Dividends Paid	$5.3B	$6.0B	$6.8B	$7.5B	$7.9B	+5.1%	+10.7%

Fundamentals, income distribution and multi-year statements from SEC EDGAR filings (public domain). Valuation multiples, performance and technicals computed from Databento 1D EOD closes. For information only, not investment advice.

On the Wire

what UNH did at the next close after each story

Sep 9

CVS warns medical-cost growth remains at high trend; UnitedHealth, Oscar shares fall

Yahoo Finance · 2:05 PM ET

—

Aug 11

Health insurers withdrawing Medicare Advantage plans, affecting seniors in rural markets

MarketWatch · 2:02 PM ET

−1.60%

What happened · big days

10 big days in a year, and what we hold on each

A big day is a close more than 3.42% from the one before, three times UNH’s median day (1.14%). On 3 of the 10, its peer group moved the same way at least half as far. We show what we hold. We never name a cause.

every other trading daya big day, numbered in the list below±3.42%Hover a bar for its day. Click a big day to open it.

Shaded: since our stories began, Jun 10. Tap a bar for its day.

#DayUNHWhat we hold that dayGroup (median of 4) · each

1 Nov 12, 2025+3.55%
Before our storiesgroup +1.7%, did not move with it
1Nov 12, 2025+3.55%
Before our stories
+1.7% did not move with itELV +3.9 · CNC +2.4 · CI +1.0 · HUM −1.2
2 Dec 3, 2025+4.67%
Before our storiesgroup −0.0%, did not move with it
2Dec 3, 2025+4.67%
Before our stories
−0.0% did not move with itHUM +6.2 · CNC 0.0 · ELV −0.1 · CI −1.4
3 Jan 27, 2026−19.61%
Resultsgroup −12.3%, moved with UNH
3Jan 27, 2026−19.61%
ResultsFirst close after the Jan 27 results filing
−12.3% moved with UNHHUM −21.1 · ELV −14.3 · CNC −10.3 · CI −3.7
4 Jan 28, 2026+4.00%
Before our storiesgroup +0.9%, did not move with it
4Jan 28, 2026+4.00%
Before our stories
+0.9% did not move with itELV +5.9 · CNC +0.9 · CI +0.8 · HUM −6.7
5 Feb 25, 2026+3.74%
Before our storiesgroup +0.9%, did not move with it
5Feb 25, 2026+3.74%
Before our stories
+0.9% did not move with itCI +1.2 · ELV +1.0 · HUM +0.8 · CNC +0.8
6 Apr 7, 2026+9.37%
Before our storiesgroup +2.8%, did not move with it
6Apr 7, 2026+9.37%
Before our stories
+2.8% did not move with itHUM +7.9 · ELV +3.0 · CNC +2.6 · CI −0.5
7 Apr 21, 2026+6.96%
Resultsgroup +2.5%, did not move with it
7Apr 21, 2026+6.96%
ResultsFirst close after the Apr 21 results filing
+2.5% did not move with itHUM +3.3 · ELV +2.7 · CNC +2.2 · CI −1.1
8 Jun 4, 2026+5.16%
Before our storiesgroup +5.0%, moved with UNH
8Jun 4, 2026+5.16%
Before our stories
+5.0% moved with UNHHUM +6.8 · CNC +5.3 · ELV +4.6 · CI +3.7
9 Jul 21, 2026+3.51%
Nothing on UNHgroup +2.5%, moved with UNH
9Jul 21, 2026+3.51%
Nothing on UNHNo UNH story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+2.5% moved with UNHELV +2.9 · CNC +2.7 · CI +2.3 · HUM +1.5
10 Oct 14, 2026+4.73%
Nothing on UNHgroup +1.8%, did not move with it
10Oct 14, 2026+4.73%
Nothing on UNHNo UNH story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+1.8% did not move with itCI +2.5 · CNC +1.9 · HUM +1.7 · ELV +0.7

A story on the same day is not a cause, and a group move is not proof either. Group: the median of ELV, CI, HUM and CNC that day, the largest companies in UNH’s SEC industry; “moved with UNH” means the same direction and at least half the size.

What’s next · results

Before the next report: what the first day after the last four did

Six trading days after each results filing (SEC 8-K, Item 2.02). UNH reports before the open, so day 1 is that day’s close. 3 of 4 times, day 6 ended on the same side as day 1.

Reported Jan 27, 2026

day 1−19.61%day 6−19.18%

Reported Apr 21, 2026

day 1+6.96%day 6+13.38%

Reported Jul 16, 2026

day 1+1.16%day 6+1.20%

Reported Oct 13, 2026

day 1−0.20%day 6+10.76%

Next report: expected mid-to-late JanuaryEstimated from the dates of its last four results filings. Not announced. Since the Oct 13 report: +8.15%. Four reports is a small sample.

Every report since 2023 →

Each line is UNH’s close against its close before the filing, on licensed end-of-day closes. What happened after each report, not a forecast; a move on the day is not a cause.

Same industry

UNH against four health insurance peers, a year at 100

UNH is up 26.3% in a year. Centene is up 2.0 times, Humana is up 65.6% and Elevance Health 36.6%. Of these four, only Cigna Group (+15.4%) did less. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, on a log scale so a twofold rise and a 15.4% rise both read honestly.

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UNH +26.3%. Centene ×2.0, Humana +65.6%, Elevance Health +36.6%, Cigna Group +15.4%. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, log scale.

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End-of-day closes (Databento EOD), the last close of each week. The four peers are the largest US-listed companies by market value in UNH’s SEC industry (Hospital & Medical Service Plans) with a year of closes. It shows what the closes did; a move here is not a cause, a forecast or a call.

The Wire at 7 AM ET, free. Top stories with a bull and a bear case on each, every morning. No account needed.

ELV	Elevance Health	$94.2B	−0.50%
CI	Cigna Group	$80.7B	−1.29%
HUM	Humana	$50.1B	−1.35%
CNC	Centene	$37.5B	−2.42%
MOH	Molina Healthcare	$11.8B	−4.32%
OSCR	Oscar Health	$9.2B	−5.71%
CLOV	Clover Health Investments	$2.4B	−4.48%
ALHC	Alignment Healthcare	$1.7B	−7.13%