Nasdaq futures are down over 2% as markets grapple with two converging headwinds: growing investor skepticism about the near-term return on massive AI infrastructure buildouts, and a Fed rate outlook that has shifted more hawkish than the market priced heading into the session. The dual pressure is particularly acute for large-cap tech names whose valuations embed both a high-growth premium and an implicit assumption of falling rates.

The second-order setup is a potential unwind of the AI trade's most crowded long positions — hyperscalers, GPU suppliers, and data center plays — at a moment when the macro tailwind of rate cuts is being pushed further out. Key things to watch: any forward guidance commentary from major tech names on capex discipline, the next Fed speakers for tone on the timeline, and whether this futures gap holds or gets bought into the open.