META Wire Story Reactions & EOD Technical StudyDaily closes (Databento EOD) pinned with every AlgoThesis Wire story (dot colour = next trading day close) and SEC filing
Nov 5, 2026CLOSE $605.081D −3.96%3M +1.71%SMA20 $668.10SMA50 $674.14RSI(14) 34.9
Data provided by Databento (end of day). Next close = the first close after a story against the close before it; official daily closes only, not a call, not advice.
After a story on META, the first close moved a median −0.12%. Up 10 of 20; over the next three trading days, a median +1.63%.
The numbers
fiscal 2025, as filed with the SEC · 66-metric EOD snapshot via Databento
Market cap$1.62T
EV / True FCF63.9x
Revenue$201.0B +22.2%
True FCF (ex-SBC)$25.7B −14.7%
Rule of 4045.1%
ROIC24.7%
True FCF Yield1.6%
EPS, diluted$23.49 −1.6%
Modern Valuation (EOD)
Market Cap$1.62T
Enterprise Value$1,641B
EV / True FCF63.91
EV / FCF35.60
EV / Gross Profit—
EV / EBIT19.71
EV / Sales8.17
P / E (GAAP)26.82
P / FCF35.17
P / Oper. CF14.00
P / Book7.46
Owner & Cash Yields
True FCF Yield1.6%
FCF Yield2.8%
Owner Earn. Yield-0.7%
Earnings Yield3.7%
Shareholder Yield+0.7%
Buyback Yield1.6%
Dividend Yield0.35%
Dividend / sh$2.10
Payout Ratio9%
FCF / sh—
EPS (diluted)$23.49
Compounder & Returns
Rule of 4045.1%
ROIC24.7%
Cash ROIC (CROIC)19.5%
GP / Assets—
ROE27.8%
ROA16.5%
Gross Margin—
Oper. Margin41.4%
Net Margin30.1%
FCF Margin22.9%
True FCF Margin12.8%
Quality & Dilution
Cash Conversion76%
Accrual Ratio−15.1%
SBC % of FCF44.3%
SBC % of Rev10.2%
Reinvest. Rate110%
Sales Growth Y/Y+22.2%
Sales 3Y CAGR+19.9%
EPS Growth Y/Y−1.6%
FCF Growth Y/Y−14.7%
FCF 3Y CAGR+33.7%
Share Change Y/Y−1.5%
Balance Sheet & Scale
Revenue (FY)$201.0B
Gross Profit (FY)—
Oper. Income (FY)$83.3B
GAAP Net Income$60.5B
True FCF (ex-SBC)$25.7B
Cash & Equiv$39.1B
Total Debt$58.7B
Net Cash (Debt)$-19.6B
Net Cash % MCap−1.2%
Debt / FCF (yrs)1.3y
Current Ratio2.60
Price & Technicals (EOD)
Perf Week−3.11%
Perf Month−16.11%
Perf Quarter+2.19%
Perf Half Y−1.90%
Perf YTD−9.81%
SMA 20 Dist−9.43%$668.10
SMA 50 Dist−10.24%$674.14
SMA 100 Dist−4.46%$633.33
Window High−22.19%$777.59
Window Low+12.25%$539.03
RSI (14) · Vol34.941%v
Income Distribution & Cash Flow ConversionHow every dollar of META revenue flows through cost of goods, operating expenses, taxes, GAAP net income, and dilution-adjusted free cash flow
Unlocked SEC EDGAR Accounting Statements (USD)All 3 statements · Common-size (% of Revenue / Assets) · YoY growth · Tap any core row to explain
Line Item (USD)
FY2021
FY2022
FY2023
FY2024
FY2025
YoY Δ
4Y CAGR
Trend
Income Statement
Revenue ▸
$117.9B
$116.6B
$134.9B
$164.5B
$201.0B
+22.2%
+14.3%
Cost of Revenue (COGS)
$22.6B
$25.2B
$26.0B
$30.2B
$36.2B
+19.9%
+12.4%
Research & Development (R&D)
$24.7B
$35.3B
$38.5B
$43.9B
$57.4B
+30.8%
+23.5%
Operating Income (EBIT) ▸
$46.8B
$28.9B
$46.8B
$69.4B
$83.3B
+20.0%
+15.5%
Interest Expense
$23.0M
$185.0M
$446.0M
$715.0M
$1.2B
+62.9%
+166.8%
Income Tax Expense
$7.9B
$5.6B
$8.3B
$8.3B
$25.5B
+206.8%
+33.9%
GAAP Net Income ▸
$39.4B
$23.2B
$39.1B
$62.4B
$60.5B
−3.1%
+11.3%
Diluted EPS ▸
$13.77
$8.59
$14.87
$23.86
$23.49
−1.6%
+14.3%
Diluted Shares
2.86B
2.70B
2.63B
2.61B
2.57B
−1.5%
−2.6%
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalents
$16.9B
$15.6B
$42.8B
$45.4B
$39.1B
−13.9%
+23.4%
Total Current Assets
$66.7B
$59.5B
$85.4B
$100.0B
$108.7B
+8.7%
+13.0%
Total Assets
$166.0B
$185.7B
$229.6B
$276.1B
$366.0B
+32.6%
+21.9%
Total Current Liabilities
$21.1B
$27.0B
$32.0B
$33.6B
$41.8B
+24.5%
+18.6%
Total Debt (Short + Long Term)
$2.7B
$12.7B
$21.1B
$31.6B
$58.7B
+86.1%
+115.0%
Total Liabilities
$41.1B
$60.0B
$76.5B
$93.4B
$148.8B
+59.3%
+37.9%
Stockholders' Equity
$124.9B
$125.7B
$153.2B
$182.6B
$217.2B
+18.9%
+14.8%
Net Cash / (Net Debt)
$14.1B
$2.9B
$21.7B
$13.9B
$-19.6B
−241.7%
—
Invested Capital
$110.8B
$122.8B
$131.5B
$168.8B
$236.9B
+40.4%
+20.9%
Cash Flow & Capital Allocation
Operating Cash Flow (OCF) ▸
$57.7B
$50.5B
$71.1B
$91.3B
$115.8B
+26.8%
+19.0%
Depreciation & Amortization (D&A)
$8.0B
$8.7B
$11.2B
$15.5B
$18.6B
+20.1%
+23.6%
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)
$9.2B
$12.0B
$14.0B
$16.7B
$20.4B
+22.4%
+22.2%
Capital Expenditures (CapEx)
$18.7B
$31.2B
$27.0B
$37.3B
$69.7B
+87.1%
+39.0%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) ▸
$39.0B
$19.3B
$44.1B
$54.1B
$46.1B
−14.7%
+4.3%
True FCF (ex-SBC Owner Cash)
$29.8B
$7.3B
$30.0B
$37.4B
$25.7B
−31.3%
−3.7%
Share Repurchases (Buybacks)
$44.5B
$28.0B
$19.8B
$30.1B
$26.2B
−12.9%
−12.4%
Dividends Paid
—
$0
$0
$5.1B
$5.3B
+5.0%
—
Fundamentals, income distribution and multi-year statements from SEC EDGAR filings (public domain). Valuation multiples, performance and technicals computed from Databento 1D EOD closes. For information only, not investment advice.
The Wire at 7 AM ET, free. Top stories with a bull and a bear case on each, every morning. No account needed.
What happened · big days
25 big days in a year, and what we hold on each
A big day is a close more than 3.91% from the one before, three times META’s median day (1.30%). On 8 of the 25, its peer group moved the same way at least half as far. We show what we hold. We never name a cause.
every other trading daya big day, numbered in the list below±3.91%Hover a bar for its day. Click a big day to open it.
Shaded: since our stories began, Jun 10. Tap a bar for its day.
#DayMETAWhat we hold that dayGroup (median of 4) · each
1 Jan 22, 2026+5.66%
Before our storiesgroup −0.7%, did not move with it
1Jan 22, 2026+5.66%
Before our stories
−0.7% did not move with itZM +4.3 · GOOGL +0.7 · APP −2.0 · NBIS −2.0
2 Jan 29, 2026+10.40%
Resultsgroup −1.6%, did not move with it
2Jan 29, 2026+10.40%
ResultsFirst close after the Jan 28 results filing
−1.6% did not move with itAPP +5.0 · GOOGL +0.7 · ZM −3.8 · NBIS −5.5
3 Mar 26, 2026−7.96%
Before our storiesgroup −5.7%, moved with META
3Mar 26, 2026−7.96%
Before our stories
−5.7% moved with METAAPP −10.4 · NBIS −7.9 · GOOGL −3.4 · ZM +1.6
4 Mar 27, 2026−3.99%
Before our storiesgroup −2.5%, moved with META
4Mar 27, 2026−3.99%
Before our stories
−2.5% moved with METANBIS −4.9 · APP −2.6 · GOOGL −2.3 · ZM −2.0
5 Mar 31, 2026+6.67%
Before our storiesgroup +6.0%, moved with META
5Mar 31, 2026+6.67%
Before our stories
+6.0% moved with METANBIS +12.5 · APP +7.0 · GOOGL +5.1 · ZM +2.2
6 Apr 8, 2026+6.50%
Before our storiesgroup +1.5%, did not move with it
6Apr 8, 2026+6.50%
Before our stories
+1.5% did not move with itNBIS +6.5 · GOOGL +3.9 · ZM −0.9 · APP −4.7
7 Apr 14, 2026+4.41%
Before our storiesgroup +3.7%, moved with META
7Apr 14, 2026+4.41%
Before our stories
+3.7% moved with METANBIS +4.8 · APP +3.9 · GOOGL +3.6 · ZM −0.5
8 Apr 30, 2026−8.55%
Resultsgroup +1.1%, did not move with it
8Apr 30, 2026−8.55%
ResultsFirst close after the Apr 29 results filing
+1.1% did not move with itNBIS −2.1 · APP +0.7 · ZM +1.4 · GOOGL +10.0
9 Jun 1, 2026−5.07%
Before our storiesgroup +5.0%, did not move with it
9Jun 1, 2026−5.07%
Before our stories
+5.0% did not move with itGOOGL −1.0 · APP +0.1 · ZM +9.9 · NBIS +14.5
10 Jun 3, 2026+4.24%
Before our storiesgroup −4.3%, did not move with it
10Jun 3, 2026+4.24%
Before our stories
−4.3% did not move with itGOOGL −0.8 · NBIS −3.4 · ZM −5.1 · APP −5.8
11 Jun 5, 2026−5.51%
Before our storiesgroup −2.2%, did not move with it
11Jun 5, 2026−5.51%
Before our stories
−2.2% did not move with itNBIS −12.3 · ZM −3.4 · GOOGL −1.0 · APP −0.3
12 Jun 15, 2026+4.67%
Nothing on METAgroup +3.8%, moved with META
12Jun 15, 2026+4.67%
Nothing on METANo META story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+3.8% moved with METANBIS +11.9 · APP +4.8 · GOOGL +2.7 · ZM +0.6
13 Jun 17, 2026−5.44%
Nothing on METAgroup −3.8%, moved with META
13Jun 17, 2026−5.44%
Nothing on METANo META story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−3.8% moved with METAAPP −6.9 · ZM −5.1 · GOOGL −2.5 · NBIS +6.0
14 Jul 1, 2026+8.81%
Nothing on METAgroup +2.8%, did not move with it
14Jul 1, 2026+8.81%
Nothing on METANo META story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+2.8% did not move with itAPP +9.6 · ZM +4.4 · GOOGL +1.1 · NBIS −17.0
15 Jul 2, 2026−4.90%
Nothing on METAgroup −4.6%, moved with META
15Jul 2, 2026−4.90%
Nothing on METANo META story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−4.6% moved with METAAPP −6.7 · NBIS −5.9 · ZM −3.3 · GOOGL −0.4
16 Jul 9, 2026+4.70%
Nothing on METAgroup −0.2%, did not move with it
16Jul 9, 2026+4.70%
Nothing on METANo META story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−0.2% did not move with itZM +2.8 · NBIS −0.1 · APP −0.3 · GOOGL −0.8
17 Jul 10, 2026+5.97%
Nothing on METAgroup −0.3%, did not move with it
17Jul 10, 2026+5.97%
Nothing on METANo META story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−0.3% did not move with itNBIS +1.6 · ZM −0.1 · GOOGL −0.5 · APP −2.6
18 Jul 30, 2026−7.95%
Resultsgroup +0.5%, did not move with it
18Jul 30, 2026−7.95%
ResultsFirst close after the Jul 29 results filing
+0.5% did not move with itGOOGL −0.9 · ZM −0.1 · APP +1.1 · NBIS +27.1
19 Aug 3, 2026+6.02%
Nothing on METAgroup +3.7%, moved with META
19Aug 3, 2026+6.02%
Nothing on METANo META story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+3.7% moved with METANBIS +11.6 · GOOGL +4.9 · APP +2.6 · ZM +2.3
−3.2% did not move with itNBIS −7.2 · ZM −3.3 · GOOGL −3.1 · APP −1.4
A story on the same day is not a cause, and a group move is not proof either. Group: the median of GOOGL, APP, NBIS and ZM that day, the largest companies in META’s SEC industry; “moved with META” means the same direction and at least half the size.
What’s next · results
Before the next report: what the first day after the last four did
Six trading days after each results filing (SEC 8-K, Item 2.02). META reports after the close, so day 1 is the next close. 3 of 4 times, day 6 ended on the same side as day 1.
Reported Jan 28, 2026
day 1+10.40%day 6+0.22%
Reported Apr 29, 2026
day 1−8.55%day 6−7.82%
Reported Jul 29, 2026
day 1−7.95%day 6+0.73%
Reported Oct 21, 2026
day 1−6.98%day 6−10.47%
Next report: expected mid-to-late JanuaryEstimated from the dates of its last four results filings. Not announced. Since the Oct 21 report: −9.68%. Four reports is a small sample.
Each line is META’s close against its close before the filing, on licensed end-of-day closes. What happened after each report, not a forecast; a move on the day is not a cause.
Same industry
META against four same-industry peers, a year at 100
META is up 1.3% in a year. Nebius Group is up 27.2%, Zoom Communications 12.4% and Alphabet 3.6%. Of these four, only AppLovin (−56.2%) did less. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, on a log scale, so the same percentage move is the same height on every line.
End-of-day closes (Databento EOD), the last close of each week. The four peers are the largest US-listed companies by market value in META’s SEC industry (Services-Computer Programming, Data Processing, Etc.) with a year of closes. It shows what the closes did; a move here is not a cause, a forecast or a call.