Microsoft MSFT

Nasdaq · Services-Prepackaged Software · $4.13T
$535.93−3.58%Nov 5 close · Databento
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MSFT Wire Story Reactions & EOD Technical StudyDaily closes (Databento EOD) pinned with every AlgoThesis Wire story (dot colour = next trading day close) and SEC filing
Nov 5, 2026CLOSE $535.931D −3.58%3M +5.90%SMA20 $531.63SMA50 $516.13RSI(14) 54.4
535.93
RSI (14, Wilder EOD) · 70 Overbought / 30 OversoldRSI 54.4

Data provided by Databento (end of day). Next close = the first close after a story against the close before it; official daily closes only, not a call, not advice.

After a story on MSFT, the first close moved a median −0.06%. Up 4 of 9; over the next three trading days, a median −0.58%.

The numbers

fiscal 2026, as filed with the SEC · 66-metric EOD snapshot via Databento
Market cap$4.13T
EV / True FCF76.1x
Revenue$331.8B +17.8%
True FCF (ex-SBC)$54.6B −6.5%
Rule of 4038.0%
ROIC26.6%
True FCF Yield1.3%
EPS, diluted$17.95 +31.6%
Modern Valuation (EOD)
Market Cap$4.13T
Enterprise Value$4,156B
EV / True FCF76.14
EV / FCF62.04
EV / Gross Profit18.43
EV / EBIT26.77
EV / Sales12.52
P / E (GAAP)30.86
P / FCF61.61
P / Oper. CF22.56
P / Book9.33
Owner & Cash Yields
True FCF Yield1.3%
FCF Yield1.6%
Owner Earn. Yield1.0%
Earnings Yield3.2%
Shareholder Yield+0.9%
Buyback Yield0.5%
Dividend Yield0.68%
Dividend / sh$3.64
Payout Ratio20%
FCF / sh$9.02
EPS (diluted)$17.95
Compounder & Returns
Rule of 4038.0%
ROIC26.6%
Cash ROIC (CROIC)14.2%
GP / Assets29.7%
ROE30.2%
ROA17.6%
Gross Margin67.9%
Oper. Margin46.8%
Net Margin40.3%
FCF Margin20.2%
True FCF Margin16.4%
Quality & Dilution
Cash Conversion50%
Accrual Ratio−6.5%
SBC % of FCF18.5%
SBC % of Rev3.7%
Reinvest. Rate83%
Sales Growth Y/Y+17.8%
Sales 3Y CAGR+16.1%
EPS Growth Y/Y+31.6%
FCF Growth Y/Y−6.5%
FCF 3Y CAGR+4.0%
Share Change Y/Y−0.2%
Balance Sheet & Scale
Revenue (FY)$331.8B
Gross Profit (FY)$225.5B
Oper. Income (FY)$155.2B
GAAP Net Income$133.7B
True FCF (ex-SBC)$54.6B
Cash & Equiv$20.9B
Total Debt$49.5B
Net Cash (Debt)$-28.6B
Net Cash % MCap−0.7%
Debt / FCF (yrs)0.7y
Current Ratio1.237.43B sh
Price & Technicals (EOD)
Perf Week+1.09%
Perf Month+1.16%
Perf Quarter+7.19%
Perf Half Y+27.37%
Perf YTD+28.19%
SMA 20 Dist+0.81%$531.63
SMA 50 Dist+3.84%$516.13
SMA 100 Dist+13.80%$470.94
Window High−3.58%$555.80
Window Low+51.89%$352.83
RSI (14) · Vol54.436%v
Income Distribution & Cash Flow ConversionHow every dollar of MSFT revenue flows through cost of goods, operating expenses, taxes, GAAP net income, and dilution-adjusted free cash flow
REVENUE · 100%$331.8BGROSS PROFIT · 67.9%$225.5BCOST OF REV · 32.1%$106.4BOPER. INCOME · 46.8%$155.2BOPEX · 21.2%R&D $35.6BNET INCOME · 40.3%$133.7BTAX & OTHER · 6.5%$21.5B
Where Every $100 of Revenue Goes (FY2026)
Cost of Revenue (COGS)$106.4B ($32.1 / $100)
R&D Reinvestment$35.6B ($10.7 / $100)
Operating Expenses$34.7B ($10.4 / $100)
Tax & Non-Operating$21.5B ($6.5 / $100)
Net Profit Kept$133.7B ($40.3 / $100)
Earnings Quality: GAAP Profit → True Owner Cash (FY2026)
GAAP Net Income$133.7B (40.3% margin)
Operating Cash Flow (OCF)$182.9B(55.1% of rev)
Less: Capital Expenditures−$115.9B(34.9% of rev)
Standard Free Cash Flow (FCF)$67.0B(20.2% margin)
Less: Stock-Based Comp (SBC)−$12.4B(18.5% of FCF)
True FCF (Owner Cash ex-SBC)$54.6B(16.4% of rev)

Operating leverage — margins

GrossOperatingNet
0%40%80%68%47%40%FY22FY23FY24FY25FY26
Unlocked SEC EDGAR Accounting Statements (USD)All 3 statements · Common-size (% of Revenue / Assets) · YoY growth · Tap any core row to explain
Line Item (USD)FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025FY2026YoY Δ4Y CAGRTrend
Income Statement
Cost of Revenue (COGS)$62.6B$65.9B$74.1B$87.8B$106.4B+21.1%+14.2%
Research & Development (R&D)$24.5B$27.2B$29.5B$32.5B$35.6B+9.5%+9.7%
Total Operating Expenses$52.2B$57.5B$61.6B$65.4B$70.2B+7.4%+7.7%
Interest Expense$2.1B$2.0B$2.9B$2.4B$3.1B+27.9%+10.3%
Income Tax Expense$11.0B$16.9B$19.7B$21.8B$32.2B+47.7%+30.9%
Diluted Shares7.54B7.47B7.47B7.46B7.45B−0.2%−0.3%
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalents$13.9B$34.7B$18.3B$30.2B$20.9B−30.8%+10.7%
Inventory$3.7B$2.5B$1.2B$938.0M$1.4B+48.9%−21.8%
Total Current Assets$169.7B$184.3B$159.7B$191.1B$207.7B+8.7%+5.2%
Total Assets$364.8B$412.0B$512.2B$619.0B$758.4B+22.5%+20.1%
Total Current Liabilities$95.1B$104.1B$125.3B$141.2B$168.8B+19.5%+15.4%
Total Debt (Short + Long Term)$52.5B$52.5B$47.2B$46.1B$49.5B+7.3%−1.5%
Total Liabilities$198.3B$205.8B$243.7B$275.5B$316.0B+14.7%+12.4%
Stockholders' Equity$166.5B$206.2B$268.5B$343.5B$442.4B+28.8%+27.7%
Net Cash / (Net Debt)$-38.6B$-17.8B$-28.9B$-15.9B$-28.6B−79.7%—
Invested Capital$205.1B$224.0B$297.3B$359.4B$471.0B+31.0%+23.1%
Cash Flow & Capital Allocation
Depreciation & Amortization (D&A)$12.6B$11.0B$15.2B$22.0B$34.3B+55.9%+28.4%
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)$7.5B$9.6B$10.7B$12.0B$12.4B+3.6%+13.4%
Capital Expenditures (CapEx)$23.9B$28.1B$44.5B$64.6B$115.9B+79.6%+48.4%
True FCF (ex-SBC Owner Cash)$57.6B$49.9B$63.3B$59.6B$54.6B−8.5%−1.4%
Share Repurchases (Buybacks)$32.7B$22.2B$17.3B$18.4B$22.3B+20.9%−9.2%
Dividends Paid$18.1B$19.8B$21.8B$24.1B$26.4B+9.8%+9.9%

Fundamentals, income distribution and multi-year statements from SEC EDGAR filings (public domain). Valuation multiples, performance and technicals computed from Databento 1D EOD closes. For information only, not investment advice.

On the Wire

what MSFT did at the next close after each story
Oct 28−0.16%
Oct 28−0.06%
Oct 28—
Oct 26+1.54%
Oct 8−1.35%
Sep 11+1.97%
Sep 2+2.68%
Sep 2−0.84%
Aug 20−0.65%
Aug 18+0.27%

The record, by topic

last 90 days · stories · median first close
cloud5+1.54%
regulation2−0.70%
earnings1−0.16%
energy1−0.84%
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