TSMC (TSM) is set to report earnings with options markets pricing an expected move in the stock. The company posted $2.9T TWD in revenue for FY2024, a 33.9% year-over-year jump, with gross margins of 56.1% and diluted EPS of $44.67 — metrics that reflect its near-monopoly on leading-edge AI chip production for clients including NVIDIA, Apple, and AMD.
The earnings event matters because TSMC is effectively a proxy for global AI capex demand. If hyperscaler and fabless chip customers continue to accelerate orders for 3nm and 2nm capacity, TSMC's guidance can move the entire semiconductor supply chain. Any guidance miss or demand commentary softening would ripple into NVDA, AMD, AVGO, and AMAT.
The bull case rests on the continued AI infrastructure buildout: with 33.9% revenue growth and 56% gross margins already in the books, any upside to CoWoS advanced packaging demand or N3/N2 utilization could push the stock higher. The bear case is that geopolitical tension around Taiwan and potential U.S. tariff/export-control escalation remain genuine overhangs that options traders are pricing alongside the fundamental momentum.
What to watch: management commentary on 2025 capex plans, N2 ramp trajectory, and any guidance that diverges from the buyside's aggressive AI-demand expectations. The implied move from options will define near-term risk/reward around the print.