Nasdaq futures are off more than 2% in a broad risk-off move driven by two compounding concerns: the escalating cost of AI infrastructure (capex cycle fears at Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon) and a Fed that appears less inclined to cut rates in the near term. The selloff suggests the market is beginning to price in the possibility that AI monetization timelines are longer than the capital commitments already made, squeezing free cash flow narratives that have underpinned lofty valuations.

The second-order setup is a potential multiple compression across high-duration growth names — particularly those trading at elevated forward P/Es with AI-heavy capex profiles. Watch whether this remains a futures-driven gap or follows through on open volume; a sustained move would pressure QQQ support levels and could accelerate rotations into value and defensives.