FedEx slumps 6% as CY2026 profit forecast misses expectations despite Q4 beat

FedEx posted a Q4 earnings beat on revenue of roughly $87.9B for FY2025 (ended May 31), with diluted EPS of $16.81 and a net margin of ~4.7% — modest but in line with a company in the middle of a cost restructuring push. Despite the headline beat, the stock slumped around 6% as management's CY2026 profit forecast fell short of analyst expectations, spooking investors who had hoped the DRIVE cost-savings program would produce stronger forward earnings power.

The gap between a solid Q4 and a disappointing forward guide is the crux of the story. FedEx has been aggressively cutting costs and restructuring its network, but flattish revenue growth of just 0.3% YoY suggests the top-line environment remains under pressure — a combination of soft global goods demand, pricing competition, and macro uncertainty around trade volumes.

The 6% selloff pulls valuations lower, which bulls will argue creates a buying opportunity if the DRIVE program accelerates margin expansion through FY2026. Bears, however, will point to the explicit guidance miss as management signaling that profit improvement will be slower and harder than consensus had modeled, especially with a fragile freight macro backdrop.

Key things to watch: any analyst price-target cuts in the days following the print, whether the DRIVE savings run-rate is being revised, and macro shipping data (PMIs, import volumes) that could confirm or refute the cautious outlook management has embedded in guidance.