Micron's fiscal 2025 revenue landed at $37.4B, a 49% year-over-year surge, with gross margins expanding to 39.8% and diluted EPS of $7.59 — a dramatic recovery from the deep trough of 2023. The AI memory supercycle, specifically HBM3E adoption by hyperscalers and GPU makers, is the central driver, with Micron now a critical supplier alongside Samsung and SK Hynix.

The magnitude of the recovery matters for how the stock trades into and out of the next earnings catalyst. At 49% revenue growth and near-40% gross margins, Micron has re-rated significantly from its cyclical lows. The key names in the orbit here are NVDA (primary HBM customer), AMD, and the broader memory complex including WDC.

The bull tension is straightforward: HBM pricing remains firm, data center capex from hyperscalers (MSFT, META, GOOGL, AMZN) is not decelerating, and Micron's HBM share is still ramping — meaning forward estimates may still be conservative. The bear tension is that DRAM spot prices outside HBM remain soft, PC and smartphone end-markets are sluggish, and a 49% growth comp becomes increasingly difficult to anniversary.

What to watch next: guidance on HBM allocation for the next quarter, any commentary on NAND oversupply, and whether gross margin can sustain above 40% as mix evolves. The stock's reaction to earnings has historically been violent in both directions, making the setup more of a volatility event than a clean directional trade without a tighter read on consensus vs. street expectations.