TSMC has reported FY2024 results showing revenue of approximately $2.9 trillion TWD, a 33.9% year-over-year surge driven by relentless AI accelerator and advanced node demand. Gross margins came in at 56.1% with net margins at 40.0%, and diluted EPS of $44.67 — numbers that firmly validate the AI capex supercycle narrative that has underpinned the stock's re-rating over the past 18 months.

The earnings kickoff matters beyond TSMC itself: as the world's dominant advanced-node foundry, TSMC's revenue trajectory is a real-time read on demand from Nvidia, Apple, AMD, and Broadcom — the four largest customers collectively driving a significant portion of advanced-node utilization. ASML's print alongside it will confirm or challenge the equipment spending outlook, touching the broader semis supply chain.

The bull tension here is straightforward — if TSMC guides Q1 2025 revenue in line with or above consensus, it reaffirms that AI infrastructure spending has not hit a wall, and the stock's premium multiple is arguably still underpinned. The bear case centers on whether the 33.9% growth rate is the peak of the cycle and whether a guidance disappointment or softening CoWoS/HBM commentary triggers a multiple compression event.

Key items to watch in the earnings call: Q1 2025 revenue guidance range, CoWoS advanced packaging capacity commentary, and any color on customer inventory normalization in smartphone vs. AI segments. ASML's order book will be the secondary signal — a soft orders print would amplify concerns about capex digestion into 2025.