Micron’s strong earnings lift chips but tech rally splits

Micron reported fiscal year 2025 revenue of $37.4 billion, a 48.9% jump year-over-year, with gross margins expanding to 39.8% and diluted EPS of $7.59 — numbers that decisively beat the prior cycle's depressed baseline and signal that the memory upcycle, driven heavily by HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) demand tied to AI infrastructure build-outs, is still running strong.

The results lifted the broader Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and adjacent names, but the broader tech rally is reported to be splitting — suggesting the market is being selective about which chip companies benefit from AI capex versus those exposed to consumer or PC end markets. Micron, as the primary U.S. supplier of HBM3E, sits at the center of that distinction.

The bull case rests on the durability of HBM pricing power and Micron's share gains against Samsung and SK Hynix, with 39.8% gross margins representing a structural improvement rather than a one-quarter blip. The bear case is valuation: at $37.4B in revenue with consensus already heavily bullish following the print, a large portion of the re-rating may already be captured in the stock price.

The 'split rally' framing is the key watchpoint — if broader semis fade while MU holds, that signals genuine fundamental differentiation; if MU follows the broader tape lower on profit-taking, the post-earnings fade dynamic takes over. The next catalyst would be Micron's formal quarterly earnings call guidance commentary and any updates on HBM supply agreements with Nvidia or other hyperscalers.