American Airlines AAL

Nasdaq · Air Transportation, Scheduled · $9.0B

$12.93−5.14%Nov 5 close · Databento

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AAL Wire Story Reactions & EOD Technical StudyDaily closes (Databento EOD) pinned with every AlgoThesis Wire story (dot colour = next trading day close) and SEC filing

Nov 5, 2026CLOSE $12.931D −5.14%3M −13.80%SMA20 $12.49SMA50 $12.89RSI(14) 51.8

12.93

RSI (14, Wilder EOD) · 70 Overbought / 30 OversoldRSI 51.8

Data provided by Databento (end of day). Next close = the first close after a story against the close before it; official daily closes only, not a call, not advice.

2 stories have a settled next close so far (2 on the Wire). The record starts speaking at three.

The numbers

fiscal 2025, as filed with the SEC · 66-metric EOD snapshot via Databento

Market cap$9.0B

Enterprise value$36.2B

Revenue$54.6B +0.8%

ROIC3.7%

EPS, diluted$0.17 −86.3%

Modern Valuation (EOD)

Market Cap$9.0B

Enterprise Value$36.2B

EV / True FCF—

EV / FCF—

EV / Gross Profit—

EV / EBIT24.70

EV / Sales0.66

P / E (GAAP)81.21

P / FCF—

P / Oper. CF2.91

P / Book—

Owner & Cash Yields

True FCF Yield—

FCF Yield—

Owner Earn. Yield—

Earnings Yield1.2%

Shareholder Yield+0.1%

Buyback Yield0.2%

Dividend Yield—

Dividend / sh$0.00

Payout Ratio39%

FCF / sh—

EPS (diluted)$0.17

Compounder & Returns

Rule of 40—

ROIC3.7%

Cash ROIC (CROIC)—

GP / Assets—

ROE-3.0%

ROA0.2%

Gross Margin—

Oper. Margin2.7%

Net Margin0.2%

FCF Margin—

True FCF Margin—

Quality & Dilution

Cash Conversion—

Accrual Ratio−4.8%

SBC % of FCF—

SBC % of Rev0.1%

Reinvest. Rate—

Sales Growth Y/Y+0.8%

Sales 3Y CAGR+3.7%

EPS Growth Y/Y−86.3%

FCF Growth Y/Y—

FCF 3Y CAGR—

Share Change Y/Y−8.4%

Balance Sheet & Scale

Revenue (FY)$54.6B

Gross Profit (FY)—

Oper. Income (FY)$1.5B

GAAP Net Income$111.0M

True FCF (ex-SBC)—

Cash & Equiv$1.1B

Total Debt$28.3B

Net Cash (Debt)$-27.2B

Net Cash % MCap−302.0%

Debt / FCF (yrs)—

Current Ratio0.50661.97M sh

Price & Technicals (EOD)

Perf Week+1.17%

Perf Month+0.62%

Perf Quarter−18.88%

Perf Half Y−1.90%

Perf YTD+5.64%

SMA 20 Dist+3.52%$12.49

SMA 50 Dist+0.28%$12.89

SMA 100 Dist−9.53%$14.29

Window High−28.76%$18.15

Window Low+14.32%$11.31

RSI (14) · Vol51.852%v

Income Distribution & Cash Flow ConversionHow every dollar of AAL revenue flows through cost of goods, operating expenses, taxes, GAAP net income, and dilution-adjusted free cash flow

Where Every $100 of Revenue Goes (FY2025)

Cost of Revenue (COGS)$0 ($0.0 / $100)

Operating Expenses$53.2B ($97.3 / $100)

Tax & Non-Operating$1.4B ($2.5 / $100)

Net Profit Kept$111.0M ($0.2 / $100)

Earnings Quality: GAAP Profit → True Owner Cash (FY2025)

GAAP Net Income$111.0M (0.2% margin)

Operating Cash Flow (OCF)$3.1B(5.7% of rev)

Less: Capital Expenditures—

Standard Free Cash Flow (FCF)—

Less: Stock-Based Comp (SBC)−$57.0M

True FCF (Owner Cash ex-SBC)—

Revenue by fiscal year

Operating leverage — margins

GrossOperatingNet

Line Item (USD)	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	YoY Δ	4Y CAGR
Income Statement
Revenue	$29.9B	$49.0B	$52.8B	$54.2B	$54.6B	+0.8%	+16.3%
Operating Income (EBIT)	$-1.1B	$1.6B	$3.0B	$2.6B	$1.5B	−43.9%	—
Interest Expense	$1.8B	$2.0B	$2.1B	$1.9B	$1.7B	−11.3%	−1.2%
Income Tax Expense	$-555.0M	$59.0M	$299.0M	$308.0M	$79.0M	−74.4%	—
GAAP Net Income	$-2.0B	$127.0M	$822.0M	$846.0M	$111.0M	−86.9%	—
Diluted EPS	$-3.09	$0.19	$1.21	$1.24	$0.17	−86.3%	—
Diluted Shares	644.0M	655.1M	719.7M	721.3M	661.1M	−8.4%	+0.7%
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalents	$408.0M	$586.0M	$681.0M	$902.0M	$1.1B	+17.1%	+26.8%
Total Current Assets	$17.3B	$15.3B	$13.6B	$13.2B	$12.2B	−7.2%	−8.4%
Total Assets	$66.5B	$64.7B	$63.1B	$61.8B	$61.8B	−0.0%	−1.8%
Total Current Liabilities	$19.0B	$21.5B	$22.1B	$24.3B	$24.5B	+0.8%	+6.5%
Total Debt (Short + Long Term)	$37.3B	$34.9B	$32.4B	$29.8B	$28.3B	−5.1%	−6.7%
Stockholders' Equity	$-7.3B	$-5.8B	$-5.2B	$-4.0B	$-3.7B	+6.3%	—
Net Cash / (Net Debt)	$-36.9B	$-34.3B	$-31.7B	$-28.9B	$-27.2B	+5.8%	—
Invested Capital	$29.6B	$28.5B	$26.5B	$24.9B	$23.5B	−5.8%	−5.6%
Cash Flow & Capital Allocation
Operating Cash Flow (OCF)	$704.0M	$2.2B	$3.8B	$4.0B	$3.1B	−22.2%	+44.8%
Depreciation & Amortization (D&A)	$2.3B	$2.3B	$2.3B	$2.2B	$2.2B	+0.0%	−1.1%
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)	$98.0M	$78.0M	$102.0M	$92.0M	$57.0M	−38.0%	−12.7%
Share Repurchases (Buybacks)	$18.0M	$21.0M	—	—	$21.0M	—	+3.9%
Dividends Paid	—	—	—	—	$43.0M	—	—

Fundamentals, income distribution and multi-year statements from SEC EDGAR filings (public domain). Valuation multiples, performance and technicals computed from Databento 1D EOD closes. For information only, not investment advice.

On the Wire

what AAL did at the next close after each story

Sep 16

American Airlines warns high fuel costs could reshape capacity

Investing.com · 12:42 PM ET

−0.55%

Aug 24

American Airlines cuts fourth quarter capacity growth forecast, BofA comments

Investing.com · 10:27 AM ET

−1.37%

What happened · big days

13 big days in a year, and what we hold on each

A big day is a close more than 5.77% from the one before, three times AAL’s median day (1.92%). On 10 of the 13, its peer group moved the same way at least half as far. We show what we hold. We never name a cause.

every other trading daya big day, numbered in the list below±5.77%Hover a bar for its day. Click a big day to open it.

Shaded: since our stories began, Jun 10. Tap a bar for its day.

#DayAALWhat we hold that dayGroup (median of 4) · each

1 Nov 5, 2025+6.09%
Before our storiesgroup +5.8%, moved with AAL
1Nov 5, 2025+6.09%
Before our stories
+5.8% moved with AALLUV +6.6 · UAL +6.5 · DAL +5.2 · ALK +3.6
2 Jan 27, 2026−7.00%
Resultsgroup −1.8%, did not move with it
2Jan 27, 2026−7.00%
ResultsFirst close after the Jan 27 results filing
−1.8% did not move with itUAL −3.5 · DAL −2.0 · LUV −1.6 · ALK +4.0
3 Feb 6, 2026+7.63%
Before our storiesgroup +7.8%, moved with AAL
3Feb 6, 2026+7.63%
Before our stories
+7.8% moved with AALUAL +9.3 · DAL +8.0 · ALK +7.6 · LUV +3.3
4 Feb 27, 2026−6.24%
Before our storiesgroup −6.8%, moved with AAL
4Feb 27, 2026−6.24%
Before our stories
−6.8% moved with AALUAL −8.7 · DAL −6.8 · ALK −6.7 · LUV −3.3
5 Apr 14, 2026+8.01%
Before our storiesgroup +5.6%, moved with AAL
5Apr 14, 2026+8.01%
Before our stories
+5.6% moved with AALDAL +6.9 · ALK +6.6 · LUV +4.6 · UAL +2.1
6 May 20, 2026+7.38%
Before our storiesgroup +9.7%, moved with AAL
6May 20, 2026+7.38%
Before our stories
+9.7% moved with AALALK +10.1 · UAL +10.0 · DAL +9.4 · LUV +6.3
7 May 26, 2026+7.18%
Before our storiesgroup +5.1%, moved with AAL
7May 26, 2026+7.18%
Before our stories
+5.1% moved with AALUAL +6.0 · ALK +5.9 · DAL +4.3 · LUV +3.5
8 Jun 11, 2026+9.17%
Nothing on AALgroup +8.3%, moved with AAL
8Jun 11, 2026+9.17%
Nothing on AALNo AAL story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+8.3% moved with AALALK +11.9 · UAL +9.6 · DAL +7.0 · LUV +7.0
9 Jun 24, 2026+8.05%
Nothing on AALgroup +4.7%, moved with AAL
9Jun 24, 2026+8.05%
Nothing on AALNo AAL story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+4.7% moved with AALUAL +7.4 · ALK +4.8 · DAL +4.5 · LUV +3.1
10 Jul 23, 2026−8.35%
Resultsgroup −1.8%, did not move with it
10Jul 23, 2026−8.35%
ResultsFirst close after the Jul 23 results filing
−1.8% did not move with itLUV −6.2 · DAL −1.9 · UAL −1.6 · ALK +0.9
11 Jul 24, 2026+6.79%
Nothing on AALgroup +2.8%, did not move with it
11Jul 24, 2026+6.79%
Nothing on AALNo AAL story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+2.8% did not move with itDAL +3.8 · ALK +3.1 · UAL +2.5 · LUV +0.8
12 Aug 10, 2026−5.90%
Nothing on AALgroup −4.5%, moved with AAL
12Aug 10, 2026−5.90%
Nothing on AALNo AAL story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−4.5% moved with AALALK −5.4 · LUV −4.6 · UAL −4.5 · DAL −2.3
13 Nov 4, 2026+6.32%
Nothing on AALgroup +7.6%, moved with AAL
13Nov 4, 2026+6.32%
Nothing on AALNo AAL story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+7.6% moved with AALALK +8.8 · UAL +8.0 · DAL +7.2 · LUV +6.8

A story on the same day is not a cause, and a group move is not proof either. Group: the median of DAL, UAL, LUV and ALK that day, the largest companies in AAL’s SEC industry; “moved with AAL” means the same direction and at least half the size.

What’s next · results

Before the next report: what the first day after the last four did

Six trading days after each results filing (SEC 8-K, Item 2.02). AAL reports before the open, so day 1 is that day’s close. 3 of 4 times, day 6 ended on the same side as day 1.

Reported Jan 27, 2026

day 1−7.00%day 6−3.84%

Reported Apr 23, 2026

day 1+2.43%day 6+1.83%

Reported Jul 23, 2026

day 1−8.35%day 6+4.33%

Reported Oct 22, 2026

day 1+2.98%day 6+4.45%

Next report: expected late JanuaryEstimated from the dates of its last four results filings. Not announced. Since the Oct 22 report: +5.68%. Four reports is a small sample.

Every report since 2023 →

Each line is AAL’s close against its close before the filing, on licensed end-of-day closes. What happened after each report, not a forecast; a move on the day is not a cause.

Same industry

AAL against four airline peers, a year at 100

AAL is down 5.3% in a year. Delta Air Lines is up 51.6%, Southwest Airlines 36.9% and United Airlines 18.8%. Of these four, only Alaska Air (−9.8%) did less. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, on a log scale, so the same percentage move is the same height on every line.

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AAL −5.3%. Delta Air Lines +51.6%, Southwest Airlines +36.9%, United Airlines +18.8%, Alaska Air −9.8%. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, log scale.

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End-of-day closes (Databento EOD), the last close of each week. The four peers are the largest US-listed companies by market value in AAL’s SEC industry (Air Transportation, Scheduled) with a year of closes. It shows what the closes did; a move here is not a cause, a forecast or a call.

The Wire at 7 AM ET, free. Top stories with a bull and a bear case on each, every morning. No account needed.

DAL	Delta Air Lines	$58.7B	−4.35%
UAL	United Airlines	$37.6B	−4.55%
LUV	Southwest Airlines	$22.7B	−4.27%
ALK	Alaska Air	$4.5B	−3.25%
SKYW	Skywest	$3.2B	−3.03%
ALGT	Allegiant Travel	$2.2B	+7.43%
ULCC	Frontier Group	$1.6B	+0.42%
JBLU	Jetblue Airways	$1.3B	−1.97%