Frontier Group ULCC

Nasdaq · Air Transportation, Scheduled · $1.6B

$7.12+0.42%Nov 5 close · Databento

Every report since 2023 →

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ULCC Wire Story Reactions & EOD Technical StudyDaily closes (Databento EOD) pinned with every AlgoThesis Wire story (dot colour = next trading day close) and SEC filing

Nov 5, 2026CLOSE $7.121D +0.42%3M +5.01%SMA20 $5.71SMA50 $5.81RSI(14) 62.8

7.12

RSI (14, Wilder EOD) · 70 Overbought / 30 OversoldRSI 62.8

Data provided by Databento (end of day). Next close = the first close after a story against the close before it; official daily closes only, not a call, not advice.

The numbers

fiscal 2025, as filed with the SEC · 66-metric EOD snapshot via Databento

Market cap$1.6B

Enterprise value$1.9B

Revenue$3.7B −1.4%

ROIC-20.6%

EPS, diluted$-0.60 −262.2%

Modern Valuation (EOD)

Market Cap$1.6B

Enterprise Value$1.9B

EV / True FCF—

EV / FCF—

EV / Gross Profit—

EV / EBIT—

EV / Sales0.51

P / E (GAAP)—

P / FCF—

P / Oper. CF—

P / Book3.32

Owner & Cash Yields

True FCF Yield—

FCF Yield—

Owner Earn. Yield—

Earnings Yield-8.4%

Shareholder Yield−1.3%

Buyback Yield—

Dividend Yield—

Dividend / sh$0.00

Payout Ratio0%

FCF / sh—

EPS (diluted)$-0.60

Compounder & Returns

Rule of 40—

ROIC-20.6%

Cash ROIC (CROIC)—

GP / Assets—

ROE-27.9%

ROA-1.9%

Gross Margin—

Oper. Margin-4.0%

Net Margin-3.7%

FCF Margin—

True FCF Margin—

Quality & Dilution

Cash Conversion—

Accrual Ratio+5.4%

SBC % of FCF—

SBC % of Rev0.6%

Reinvest. Rate—

Sales Growth Y/Y−1.4%

Sales 3Y CAGR+3.8%

EPS Growth Y/Y−262.2%

FCF Growth Y/Y—

FCF 3Y CAGR—

Share Change Y/Y+0.6%

Balance Sheet & Scale

Revenue (FY)$3.7B

Gross Profit (FY)—

Oper. Income (FY)$-149.0M

GAAP Net Income$-137.0M

True FCF (ex-SBC)—

Cash & Equiv$671.0M

Total Debt$921.0M

Net Cash (Debt)$-250.0M

Net Cash % MCap−15.3%

Debt / FCF (yrs)—

Current Ratio0.46230.42M sh

Price & Technicals (EOD)

Perf Week+9.88%

Perf Month+17.30%

Perf Quarter−3.52%

Perf Half Y+31.12%

Perf YTD+48.02%

SMA 20 Dist+24.70%$5.71

SMA 50 Dist+22.56%$5.81

SMA 100 Dist+12.81%$6.31

Window High−11.66%$8.06

Window Low+96.14%$3.63

RSI (14) · Vol62.8122%v

Income Distribution & Cash Flow ConversionHow every dollar of ULCC revenue flows through cost of goods, operating expenses, taxes, GAAP net income, and dilution-adjusted free cash flow

Where Every $100 of Revenue Goes (FY2025)

Cost of Revenue (COGS)$0 ($0.0 / $100)

Operating Expenses$3.9B ($100.0 / $100)

Tax & Non-Operating$0 ($0.0 / $100)

Net Profit Kept$-137.0M ($0.0 / $100)

Earnings Quality: GAAP Profit → True Owner Cash (FY2025)

GAAP Net Income$-137.0M (-3.7% margin)

Operating Cash Flow (OCF)$-525.0M(-14.1% of rev)

Less: Capital Expenditures—

Standard Free Cash Flow (FCF)—

Less: Stock-Based Comp (SBC)−$21.0M

True FCF (Owner Cash ex-SBC)—

Revenue by fiscal year

Operating leverage — margins

GrossOperatingNet

Line Item (USD)	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	YoY Δ	4Y CAGR
Income Statement
Revenue	$2.1B	$3.3B	$3.6B	$3.8B	$3.7B	−1.4%	+16.0%
Operating Income (EBIT)	$-117.0M	$-45.0M	$-3.0M	$58.0M	$-149.0M	−356.9%	—
Interest Expense	—	$21.0M	$29.0M	$36.0M	$46.0M	+27.8%	+29.9%
Income Tax Expense	$-42.0M	$-8.0M	$43.0M	$1.0M	$3.0M	+200.0%	—
GAAP Net Income	$-102.0M	$-37.0M	$-11.0M	$85.0M	$-137.0M	−261.2%	—
Diluted EPS	$-0.48	$-0.17	$-0.05	$0.37	$-0.60	−262.2%	—
Diluted Shares	211.4M	217.6M	220.1M	226.5M	227.8M	+0.6%	+1.9%
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalents	$918.0M	$761.0M	$609.0M	$740.0M	$671.0M	−9.3%	−7.5%
Total Current Assets	$1.0B	$1.0B	$871.0M	$990.0M	$958.0M	−3.2%	−2.0%
Total Assets	$4.2B	$4.5B	$5.0B	$6.2B	$7.2B	+17.3%	+14.3%
Total Current Liabilities	$1.3B	$1.6B	$1.7B	$1.9B	$2.1B	+13.6%	+12.2%
Total Debt (Short + Long Term)	$550.0M	$588.0M	$725.0M	$768.0M	$921.0M	+19.9%	+13.8%
Total Liabilities	$3.7B	$4.0B	$4.5B	$5.5B	$6.7B	+21.3%	+16.1%
Stockholders' Equity	$530.0M	$509.0M	$507.0M	$604.0M	$491.0M	−18.7%	−1.9%
Net Cash / (Net Debt)	$368.0M	$173.0M	$-116.0M	$-28.0M	$-250.0M	−792.9%	—
Invested Capital	$162.0M	$336.0M	$623.0M	$632.0M	$741.0M	+17.2%	+46.2%
Cash Flow & Capital Allocation
Operating Cash Flow (OCF)	$216.0M	$-78.0M	$-261.0M	$-82.0M	$-525.0M	−540.2%	—
Depreciation & Amortization (D&A)	$38.0M	$45.0M	$50.0M	$72.0M	$91.0M	+26.4%	+24.4%
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)	$11.0M	$15.0M	$14.0M	$16.0M	$21.0M	+31.3%	+17.5%
Dividends Paid	$0	$1.0M	$1.0M	$0	$0	—	—

Fundamentals, income distribution and multi-year statements from SEC EDGAR filings (public domain). Valuation multiples, performance and technicals computed from Databento 1D EOD closes. For information only, not investment advice.

On the Wire

what ULCC did at the next close after each story

No Wire story has named ULCC yet.

What happened · big days

26 big days in a year, and what we hold on each

A big day is a close more than 8.61% from the one before, three times ULCC’s median day (2.87%). On 4 of the 26, its peer group moved the same way at least half as far. We show what we hold. We never name a cause.

every other trading daya big day, numbered in the list below±8.61%Hover a bar for its day. Click a big day to open it.

Shaded: since our stories began, Jun 10. Tap a bar for its day.

#DayULCCWhat we hold that dayGroup (median of 4) · each

1 Dec 16, 2025−11.20%
Before our storiesgroup +2.7%, did not move with it
1Dec 16, 2025−11.20%
Before our stories
+2.7% did not move with itDAL −0.2 · LUV +1.1 · AAL +4.3 · UAL +4.4
2 Jan 9, 2026+9.96%
Before our storiesgroup +1.6%, did not move with it
2Jan 9, 2026+9.96%
Before our stories
+1.6% did not move with itLUV +3.7 · AAL +1.6 · UAL +1.6 · DAL +1.4
3 Jan 21, 2026+8.96%
Before our storiesgroup +2.2%, did not move with it
3Jan 21, 2026+8.96%
Before our stories
+2.2% did not move with itAAL +2.4 · DAL +2.2 · UAL +2.2 · LUV +1.1
4 Feb 2, 2026+9.48%
Before our storiesgroup +4.7%, did not move with it
4Feb 2, 2026+9.48%
Before our stories
+4.7% did not move with itUAL +4.9 · DAL +4.8 · LUV +4.5 · AAL +2.9
5 Feb 4, 2026+9.96%
Before our storiesgroup +1.7%, did not move with it
5Feb 4, 2026+9.96%
Before our stories
+1.7% did not move with itAAL +3.0 · LUV +2.7 · DAL +0.6 · UAL −1.2
6 Feb 6, 2026+15.40%
Before our storiesgroup +7.8%, moved with ULCC
6Feb 6, 2026+15.40%
Before our stories
+7.8% moved with ULCCUAL +9.3 · DAL +8.0 · AAL +7.6 · LUV +3.3
7 Mar 2, 2026−9.01%
Before our storiesgroup −2.6%, did not move with it
7Mar 2, 2026−9.01%
Before our stories
−2.6% did not move with itAAL −4.2 · UAL −2.9 · DAL −2.2 · LUV −2.0
8 Mar 23, 2026+9.43%
Before our storiesgroup +3.1%, did not move with it
8Mar 23, 2026+9.43%
Before our stories
+3.1% did not move with itUAL +4.5 · AAL +3.6 · DAL +2.7 · LUV +2.4
9 Apr 21, 2026−12.06%
Before our storiesgroup −2.0%, did not move with it
9Apr 21, 2026−12.06%
Before our stories
−2.0% did not move with itAAL −3.8 · LUV −2.1 · UAL −1.8 · DAL −1.4
10 Apr 22, 2026−11.82%
Before our storiesgroup −3.2%, did not move with it
10Apr 22, 2026−11.82%
Before our stories
−3.2% did not move with itUAL −5.6 · LUV −3.8 · DAL −2.6 · AAL −2.3
11 May 1, 2026+10.19%
Before our storiesgroup +1.8%, did not move with it
11May 1, 2026+10.19%
Before our stories
+1.8% did not move with itUAL +2.8 · LUV +2.2 · DAL +1.5 · AAL +1.1
12 May 6, 2026+9.38%
Before our storiesgroup +4.6%, did not move with it
12May 6, 2026+9.38%
Before our stories
+4.6% did not move with itUAL +6.8 · AAL +4.6 · LUV +4.5 · DAL +3.5
13 May 7, 2026+13.60%
Before our storiesgroup −0.3%, did not move with it
13May 7, 2026+13.60%
Before our stories
−0.3% did not move with itAAL +1.9 · LUV −0.3 · DAL −0.3 · UAL −0.3
14 May 20, 2026+10.35%
Before our storiesgroup +8.4%, moved with ULCC
14May 20, 2026+10.35%
Before our stories
+8.4% moved with ULCCUAL +10.0 · DAL +9.4 · AAL +7.4 · LUV +6.3
15 May 27, 2026+9.23%
Before our storiesgroup +3.2%, did not move with it
15May 27, 2026+9.23%
Before our stories
+3.2% did not move with itUAL +6.3 · LUV +3.3 · DAL +3.0 · AAL +0.5
16 Jun 10, 2026−12.83%
Nothing on ULCCgroup −5.3%, did not move with it
16Jun 10, 2026−12.83%
Nothing on ULCCNo ULCC story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−5.3% did not move with itUAL −6.3 · DAL −5.8 · AAL −4.8 · LUV −4.1
17 Jun 11, 2026+9.67%
Nothing on ULCCgroup +8.1%, moved with ULCC
17Jun 11, 2026+9.67%
Nothing on ULCCNo ULCC story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+8.1% moved with ULCCUAL +9.6 · AAL +9.2 · DAL +7.0 · LUV +7.0
18 Jun 18, 2026+8.73%
Nothing on ULCCgroup +2.6%, did not move with it
18Jun 18, 2026+8.73%
Nothing on ULCCNo ULCC story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+2.6% did not move with itAAL +3.7 · LUV +2.8 · DAL +2.4 · UAL +2.1
19 Jul 10, 2026−9.87%
Nothing on ULCCgroup −1.7%, did not move with it
19Jul 10, 2026−9.87%
Nothing on ULCCNo ULCC story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−1.7% did not move with itUAL −2.4 · DAL −1.8 · LUV −1.6 · AAL −0.6
20 Aug 3, 2026+13.93%
Nothing on ULCCgroup +4.9%, did not move with it
20Aug 3, 2026+13.93%
Nothing on ULCCNo ULCC story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+4.9% did not move with itUAL +5.8 · AAL +5.0 · DAL +4.8 · LUV +4.7
21 Oct 14, 2026−12.54%
Nothing on ULCCgroup −3.9%, did not move with it
21Oct 14, 2026−12.54%
Nothing on ULCCNo ULCC story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−3.9% did not move with itAAL −5.7 · UAL −4.1 · DAL −3.7 · LUV −3.2
22 Oct 27, 2026+12.63%
Nothing on ULCCgroup +3.1%, did not move with it
22Oct 27, 2026+12.63%
Nothing on ULCCNo ULCC story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+3.1% did not move with itUAL +4.0 · AAL +3.4 · DAL +2.9 · LUV +1.4
23 Oct 28, 2026+11.57%
Nothing on ULCCgroup −0.7%, did not move with it
23Oct 28, 2026+11.57%
Nothing on ULCCNo ULCC story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−0.7% did not move with itLUV +0.1 · AAL −0.2 · UAL −1.2 · DAL −1.4
24 Nov 2, 2026+15.19%
Nothing on ULCCgroup +4.0%, did not move with it
24Nov 2, 2026+15.19%
Nothing on ULCCNo ULCC story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+4.0% did not move with itUAL +4.8 · DAL +4.1 · AAL +3.8 · LUV +3.6
25 Nov 3, 2026−12.92%
Nothing on ULCCgroup −1.5%, did not move with it
25Nov 3, 2026−12.92%
Nothing on ULCCNo ULCC story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−1.5% did not move with itAAL −2.0 · UAL −1.9 · LUV −1.2 · DAL −0.2
26 Nov 4, 2026+9.58%
Nothing on ULCCgroup +7.0%, moved with ULCC
26Nov 4, 2026+9.58%
Nothing on ULCCNo ULCC story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+7.0% moved with ULCCUAL +8.0 · DAL +7.2 · LUV +6.8 · AAL +6.3

A story on the same day is not a cause, and a group move is not proof either. Group: the median of DAL, UAL, LUV and AAL that day, the largest companies in ULCC’s SEC industry; “moved with ULCC” means the same direction and at least half the size.

What’s next · results

Before the next report: what the first day after the last three did

Six trading days after each results filing (SEC 8-K, Item 2.02). ULCC reports before the open, so day 1 is that day’s close. Each time, day 6 ended on the same side as day 1.

Reported Feb 11, 2026

day 1−7.89%day 6−14.60%

Reported May 5, 2026

day 1+6.85%day 6+15.40%

Reported Jul 29, 2026

day 1+4.33%day 6+27.69%

Next report: expected late OctoberEstimated from the dates of its last four results filings. Not announced. Since the Jul 29 report: +13.80%. Three reports is a small sample.

Every report since 2023 →

Each line is ULCC’s close against its close before the filing, on licensed end-of-day closes. What happened after each report, not a forecast; a move on the day is not a cause.

Same industry

ULCC against four airline peers, a year at 100

ULCC is up 80.4% in a year. All four did less: Delta Air Lines (+51.6%), Southwest Airlines (+43.1%), United Airlines (+18.8%) and American Airlines (−0.2%). Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, on a log scale, so the same percentage move is the same height on every line.

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ULCC +80.4%. Delta Air Lines +51.6%, Southwest Airlines +43.1%, United Airlines +18.8%, American Airlines −0.2%. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, log scale.

Share this chart

End-of-day closes (Databento EOD), the last close of each week. The four peers are the largest US-listed companies by market value in ULCC’s SEC industry (Air Transportation, Scheduled) with a year of closes. It shows what the closes did; a move here is not a cause, a forecast or a call.

The Wire at 7 AM ET, free. Top stories with a bull and a bear case on each, every morning. No account needed.

DAL	Delta Air Lines	$58.7B	—
UAL	United Airlines	$37.6B	—
LUV	Southwest Airlines	$22.7B	—
AAL	American Airlines	$9.0B	—
ALK	Alaska Air	$4.5B	—
SKYW	Skywest	$3.2B	—
ALGT	Allegiant Travel	$2.2B	—
JBLU	Jetblue Airways	$1.3B	—