Archer-Daniels-Midland ADM
NYSE · Fats & Oils · $34.1B$70.47−0.52%Nov 5 close · Databento
ADM Wire Story Reactions & EOD Technical StudyDaily closes (Databento EOD) pinned with every AlgoThesis Wire story (dot colour = next trading day close) and SEC filing
Nov 5, 2026CLOSE $70.471D −0.52%3M −12.45%SMA20 $78.41SMA50 $81.27RSI(14) 23.9
RSI (14, Wilder EOD) · 70 Overbought / 30 OversoldRSI 23.9
Data provided by Databento (end of day). Next close = the first close after a story against the close before it; official daily closes only, not a call, not advice.
1 story has a settled next close so far (1 on the Wire). The record starts speaking at three.
The numbers
fiscal 2025, as filed with the SEC · 66-metric EOD snapshot via DatabentoMarket cap$34.1B
EV / True FCF9.0x
Revenue$80.3B −6.2%
True FCF (ex-SBC)$4.1B +242.6%
Rule of 40-1.0%
True FCF Yield12.1%
EPS, diluted$2.23 −38.9%
Modern Valuation (EOD)
Market Cap$34.1B
Enterprise Value$37.3B
EV / True FCF9.04
EV / FCF8.86
EV / Gross Profit7.40
EV / EBIT—
EV / Sales0.46
P / E (GAAP)31.67
P / FCF8.12
P / Oper. CF6.26
P / Book1.50
Owner & Cash Yields
True FCF Yield12.1%
FCF Yield12.3%
Owner Earn. Yield2.7%
Earnings Yield3.2%
Shareholder Yield+2.6%
Buyback Yield0.0%
Dividend Yield2.89%
Dividend / sh$2.04
Payout Ratio92%
FCF / sh$8.83
EPS (diluted)$2.23
Compounder & Returns
Rule of 40-1.0%
ROIC—
Cash ROIC (CROIC)16.3%
GP / Assets9.6%
ROE4.7%
ROA2.1%
Gross Margin6.3%
Oper. Margin—
Net Margin1.3%
FCF Margin5.2%
True FCF Margin5.1%
Quality & Dilution
Cash Conversion390%
Accrual Ratio−8.3%
SBC % of FCF2.0%
SBC % of Rev0.1%
Reinvest. Rate27%
Sales Growth Y/Y−6.2%
Sales 3Y CAGR−7.5%
EPS Growth Y/Y−38.9%
FCF Growth Y/Y+242.6%
FCF 3Y CAGR+24.9%
Share Change Y/Y−1.8%
Balance Sheet & Scale
Revenue (FY)$80.3B
Gross Profit (FY)$5.0B
Oper. Income (FY)—
GAAP Net Income$1.1B
True FCF (ex-SBC)$4.1B
Cash & Equiv$5.5B
Total Debt$8.6B
Net Cash (Debt)$-3.1B
Net Cash % MCap−9.1%
Debt / FCF (yrs)2.0y
Current Ratio1.37475.92M sh
Price & Technicals (EOD)
Perf Week−7.52%
Perf Month−13.36%
Perf Quarter−7.99%
Perf Half Y−9.11%
Perf YTD+3.07%
SMA 20 Dist−10.13%$78.41
SMA 50 Dist−13.29%$81.27
SMA 100 Dist−12.62%$80.65
Window High−20.00%$88.09
Window Low+3.07%$68.37
RSI (14) · Vol23.933%v
Income Distribution & Cash Flow ConversionHow every dollar of ADM revenue flows through cost of goods, operating expenses, taxes, GAAP net income, and dilution-adjusted free cash flow
Where Every $100 of Revenue Goes (FY2025)
Cost of Revenue (COGS)$75.2B ($93.7 / $100)
R&D Reinvestment$246.0M ($0.3 / $100)
SG&A & Other OpEx$3.6B ($4.5 / $100)
Tax & Non-Operating$4.0B ($4.9 / $100)
Net Profit Kept$1.1B ($0.0 / $100)
Earnings Quality: GAAP Profit → True Owner Cash (FY2025)
GAAP Net Income$1.1B (1.3% margin)
Operating Cash Flow (OCF)$5.5B(6.8% of rev)
Less: Capital Expenditures−$1.2B(1.6% of rev)
Standard Free Cash Flow (FCF)$4.2B(5.2% margin)
Less: Stock-Based Comp (SBC)−$83.0M(2.0% of FCF)
True FCF (Owner Cash ex-SBC)$4.1B(5.1% of rev)
Revenue by fiscal year
Operating leverage — margins
GrossOperatingNet
| Line Item (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | YoY Δ | 4Y CAGR | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | ||||||||
| Revenue | $85.2B | $101.6B | $93.9B | $85.5B | $80.3B | −6.2% | −1.5% | |
| Cost of Revenue (COGS) | $79.3B | $94.0B | $86.4B | $79.8B | $75.2B | −5.7% | −1.3% | |
| Gross Profit | $6.0B | $7.6B | $7.5B | $5.8B | $5.0B | −12.9% | −4.2% | |
| Research & Development (R&D) | $171.0M | $216.0M | $256.0M | $269.0M | $246.0M | −8.6% | +9.5% | |
| Selling, General & Admin (SG&A) | $3.0B | $3.4B | $3.5B | $3.7B | $3.6B | −2.6% | +4.8% | |
| Interest Expense | $265.0M | $396.0M | $647.0M | $706.0M | $612.0M | −13.3% | +23.3% | |
| Income Tax Expense | $578.0M | $868.0M | $828.0M | $476.0M | $182.0M | −61.8% | −25.1% | |
| GAAP Net Income | $2.7B | $4.3B | $3.5B | $1.8B | $1.1B | −40.1% | −20.6% | |
| Diluted EPS | $4.79 | $7.71 | $6.43 | $3.65 | $2.23 | −38.9% | −17.4% | |
| Diluted Shares | 566.0M | 563.0M | 542.0M | 493.0M | 484.0M | −1.8% | −3.8% | |
| Balance Sheet | ||||||||
| Cash & Equivalents | $7.5B | $7.0B | $5.4B | $3.9B | $5.5B | +40.3% | −7.3% | |
| Inventory | $14.5B | $14.8B | $12.0B | $11.6B | $10.4B | −10.4% | −8.0% | |
| Total Current Assets | $31.9B | $35.4B | $29.8B | $27.7B | $26.7B | −3.8% | −4.4% | |
| Total Assets | $56.1B | $59.8B | $54.6B | $53.3B | $52.4B | −1.7% | −1.7% | |
| Total Current Liabilities | $21.9B | $24.2B | $18.7B | $19.9B | $19.5B | −2.0% | −2.9% | |
| Total Debt (Short + Long Term) | $9.2B | $9.6B | $8.3B | $8.9B | $8.6B | −3.5% | −1.5% | |
| Stockholders' Equity | $22.5B | $24.3B | $24.1B | $22.2B | $22.7B | +2.5% | +0.3% | |
| Net Cash / (Net Debt) | $-1.7B | $-2.6B | $-2.9B | $-5.0B | $-3.1B | +37.8% | — | |
| Invested Capital | $24.2B | $26.9B | $27.0B | $27.2B | $25.9B | −4.9% | +1.7% | |
| Cash Flow & Capital Allocation | ||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow (OCF) | $6.6B | $3.5B | $4.5B | $2.8B | $5.5B | +95.4% | −4.6% | |
| Depreciation & Amortization (D&A) | $996.0M | $1.0B | $1.1B | $1.1B | $1.2B | +3.5% | +4.4% | |
| Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) | $161.0M | $147.0M | $112.0M | $74.0M | $83.0M | +12.2% | −15.3% | |
| Capital Expenditures (CapEx) | $1.2B | $1.3B | $1.5B | $1.6B | $1.2B | −20.2% | +1.6% | |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $5.4B | $2.2B | $3.0B | $1.2B | $4.2B | +242.6% | −6.2% | |
| True FCF (ex-SBC Owner Cash) | $5.3B | $2.0B | $2.9B | $1.2B | $4.1B | +257.4% | −5.9% | |
| Share Repurchases (Buybacks) | $0 | $1.4B | $2.7B | $2.3B | $0 | −100.0% | — | |
| Dividends Paid | $834.0M | $899.0M | $977.0M | $985.0M | $987.0M | +0.2% | +4.3% | |
Fundamentals, income distribution and multi-year statements from SEC EDGAR filings (public domain). Valuation multiples, performance and technicals computed from Databento 1D EOD closes. For information only, not investment advice.
On the Wire
what ADM did at the next close after each storyThe Wire at 7 AM ET, free. Top stories with a bull and a bear case on each, every morning. No account needed.