HF Sinclair DINO

NYSE · Pipe Lines (No Natural Gas) · $18.6B

$97.77−6.50%Nov 5 close · Databento

Every report since 2023 →

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DINO Wire Story Reactions & EOD Technical StudyDaily closes (Databento EOD) pinned with every AlgoThesis Wire story (dot colour = next trading day close) and SEC filing

Nov 5, 2026CLOSE $97.771D −6.50%3M +14.73%SMA20 $118.75SMA50 $112.77RSI(14) 29.9

97.77

RSI (14, Wilder EOD) · 70 Overbought / 30 OversoldRSI 29.9

Data provided by Databento (end of day). Next close = the first close after a story against the close before it; official daily closes only, not a call, not advice.

The numbers

fiscal 2025, as filed with the SEC · 66-metric EOD snapshot via Databento

Market cap$18.6B

EV / True FCF24.5x

Revenue$26.9B −6.0%

True FCF (ex-SBC)$833.0M +35.3%

Rule of 40-2.8%

ROIC6.7%

True FCF Yield4.5%

EPS, diluted$3.08 +238.5%

Modern Valuation (EOD)

Market Cap$18.6B

Enterprise Value$20.4B

EV / True FCF24.47

EV / FCF23.54

EV / Gross Profit—

EV / EBIT21.99

EV / Sales0.76

P / E (GAAP)32.11

P / FCF21.47

P / Oper. CF14.14

P / Book2.01

Owner & Cash Yields

True FCF Yield4.5%

FCF Yield4.7%

Owner Earn. Yield5.4%

Earnings Yield3.1%

Shareholder Yield+3.7%

Buyback Yield1.9%

Dividend Yield2.05%

Dividend / sh$2.00

Payout Ratio65%

FCF / sh$5.05

EPS (diluted)$3.08

Compounder & Returns

Rule of 40-2.8%

ROIC6.7%

Cash ROIC (CROIC)7.8%

GP / Assets—

ROE6.3%

ROA3.5%

Gross Margin—

Oper. Margin3.5%

Net Margin2.2%

FCF Margin3.2%

True FCF Margin3.1%

Quality & Dilution

Cash Conversion150%

Accrual Ratio−4.5%

SBC % of FCF3.8%

SBC % of Rev0.1%

Reinvest. Rate34%

Sales Growth Y/Y−6.0%

Sales 3Y CAGR−11.1%

EPS Growth Y/Y+238.5%

FCF Growth Y/Y+35.3%

FCF 3Y CAGR−35.7%

Share Change Y/Y−2.9%

Balance Sheet & Scale

Revenue (FY)$26.9B

Gross Profit (FY)—

Oper. Income (FY)$927.0M

GAAP Net Income$579.0M

True FCF (ex-SBC)$833.0M

Cash & Equiv$978.0M

Total Debt$2.8B

Net Cash (Debt)$-1.8B

Net Cash % MCap−9.6%

Debt / FCF (yrs)3.2y

Current Ratio1.94171.37M sh

Price & Technicals (EOD)

Perf Week−12.62%

Perf Month−15.45%

Perf Quarter+20.10%

Perf Half Y+38.68%

Perf YTD+68.89%

SMA 20 Dist−17.67%$118.75

SMA 50 Dist−13.30%$112.77

SMA 100 Dist−0.18%$97.94

Window High−23.75%$128.23

Window Low+68.89%$57.89

RSI (14) · Vol29.956%v

Income Distribution & Cash Flow ConversionHow every dollar of DINO revenue flows through cost of goods, operating expenses, taxes, GAAP net income, and dilution-adjusted free cash flow

Where Every $100 of Revenue Goes (FY2025)

Cost of Revenue (COGS)$25.8B ($96.0 / $100)

SG&A & Other OpEx$456.0M ($1.7 / $100)

Tax & Non-Operating$348.0M ($1.3 / $100)

Net Profit Kept$579.0M ($1.0 / $100)

Earnings Quality: GAAP Profit → True Owner Cash (FY2025)

GAAP Net Income$579.0M (2.2% margin)

Operating Cash Flow (OCF)$1.3B(4.9% of rev)

Less: Capital Expenditures−$449.0M(1.7% of rev)

Standard Free Cash Flow (FCF)$866.0M(3.2% margin)

Less: Stock-Based Comp (SBC)−$33.0M(3.8% of FCF)

True FCF (Owner Cash ex-SBC)$833.0M(3.1% of rev)

Revenue by fiscal year

Operating leverage — margins

GrossOperatingNet

Line Item (USD)	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	YoY Δ	4Y CAGR
Income Statement
Revenue	$18.4B	$38.2B	$32.0B	$28.6B	$26.9B	−6.0%	+9.9%
Cost of Revenue (COGS)	$15.6B	$30.7B	$25.8B	—	$25.8B	—	+13.4%
Selling, General & Admin (SG&A)	$362.0M	$427.0M	$497.0M	$447.0M	$456.0M	+2.0%	+5.9%
Total Operating Expenses	$1.5B	$2.3B	$2.4B	—	—	—	+26.8%
Operating Income (EBIT)	$749.2M	$4.1B	$2.2B	$261.0M	$927.0M	+255.2%	+5.5%
Interest Expense	$125.2M	$175.6M	$190.8M	$165.0M	$217.0M	+31.5%	+14.7%
Income Tax Expense	$123.9M	$895.0M	$442.0M	$34.0M	$146.0M	+329.4%	+4.2%
GAAP Net Income	$558.3M	$2.9B	$1.6B	$177.0M	$579.0M	+227.1%	+0.9%
Diluted EPS	$3.39	$14.28	$8.29	$0.91	$3.08	+238.5%	−2.4%
Diluted Shares	162.6M	202.6M	190.0M	192.1M	186.5M	−2.9%	+3.5%
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalents	$234.0M	$1.7B	$1.4B	$800.0M	$978.0M	+22.3%	+43.0%
Inventory	$2.1B	$3.2B	$2.9B	$2.8B	$2.6B	−8.0%	+4.9%
Total Current Assets	$3.8B	$6.7B	$6.1B	$5.0B	$4.8B	−4.0%	+6.3%
Total Assets	$12.9B	$18.1B	$17.7B	$16.6B	$16.5B	−0.8%	+6.3%
Total Current Liabilities	$2.1B	$3.2B	$2.8B	$3.0B	$2.5B	−18.3%	+4.7%
Total Debt (Short + Long Term)	$3.1B	$3.6B	$2.8B	$3.0B	$2.8B	−7.3%	−2.7%
Total Liabilities	$8.9B	$8.9B	$7.5B	$7.3B	$7.3B	−0.5%	−5.0%
Stockholders' Equity	$6.3B	$10.0B	$10.2B	$9.3B	$9.2B	−1.0%	+10.1%
Net Cash / (Net Debt)	$-2.9B	$-1.9B	$-1.4B	$-2.2B	$-1.8B	+18.1%	—
Invested Capital	$9.2B	$11.9B	$11.6B	$11.5B	$11.0B	−4.3%	+4.8%
Cash Flow & Capital Allocation
Operating Cash Flow (OCF)	$406.7M	$3.8B	$2.3B	$1.1B	$1.3B	+18.5%	+34.1%
Depreciation & Amortization (D&A)	$503.5M	$657.0M	$771.0M	$832.0M	$909.0M	+9.3%	+15.9%
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)	$39.3M	$31.0M	$41.0M	$23.0M	$33.0M	+43.5%	−4.3%
Capital Expenditures (CapEx)	$725.1M	$524.0M	$385.0M	$470.0M	$449.0M	−4.5%	−11.3%
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	$-318.4M	$3.3B	$1.9B	$640.0M	$866.0M	+35.3%	—
True FCF (ex-SBC Owner Cash)	$-357.7M	$3.2B	$1.9B	$617.0M	$833.0M	+35.0%	—
Share Repurchases (Buybacks)	$7.1M	$1.4B	$999.0M	$672.0M	$354.0M	−47.3%	+166.1%
Dividends Paid	$57.7M	$256.0M	$341.0M	$386.0M	$376.0M	−2.6%	+59.8%

Fundamentals, income distribution and multi-year statements from SEC EDGAR filings (public domain). Valuation multiples, performance and technicals computed from Databento 1D EOD closes. For information only, not investment advice.

On the Wire

what DINO did at the next close after each story

No Wire story has named DINO yet.

What happened · big days

22 big days in a year, and what we hold on each

A big day is a close more than 4.58% from the one before, three times DINO’s median day (1.53%). On 1 of the 22, its peer group moved the same way at least half as far. We show what we hold. We never name a cause.

every other trading daya big day, numbered in the list below±4.58%Hover a bar for its day. Click a big day to open it.

Shaded: since our stories began, Jun 10. Tap a bar for its day.

#DayDINOWhat we hold that dayGroup (median of 4) · each

1 Jan 5, 2026+5.17%
Before our storiesgroup −0.3%, did not move with it
1Jan 5, 2026+5.17%
Before our stories
−0.3% did not move with itPAGP +0.5 · PAA +0.4 · MPLX −1.1 · SOBO −3.2
2 Jan 8, 2026+5.02%
Before our storiesgroup +1.3%, did not move with it
2Jan 8, 2026+5.02%
Before our stories
+1.3% did not move with itPAA +2.2 · PAGP +2.1 · MPLX +0.4 · SOBO +0.1
3 Feb 3, 2026+5.34%
Before our storiesgroup +2.0%, did not move with it
3Feb 3, 2026+5.34%
Before our stories
+2.0% did not move with itPAGP +2.7 · PAA +2.3 · SOBO +1.7 · MPLX −0.1
4 Feb 18, 2026−10.86%
Resultsgroup +0.6%, did not move with it
4Feb 18, 2026−10.86%
ResultsFirst close after the Feb 18 results filing
+0.6% did not move with itMPLX −1.1 · SOBO +0.5 · PAGP +0.6 · PAA +0.7
5 Mar 2, 2026+7.60%
Before our storiesgroup +1.9%, did not move with it
5Mar 2, 2026+7.60%
Before our stories
+1.9% did not move with itPAA +2.1 · SOBO +2.0 · PAGP +1.9 · MPLX +0.3
6 Mar 4, 2026+4.75%
Before our storiesgroup +1.2%, did not move with it
6Mar 4, 2026+4.75%
Before our stories
+1.2% did not move with itPAA +2.1 · PAGP +1.6 · SOBO +0.8 · MPLX −0.2
7 Mar 9, 2026−6.12%
Before our storiesgroup −0.8%, did not move with it
7Mar 9, 2026−6.12%
Before our stories
−0.8% did not move with itPAA −1.9 · PAGP −0.9 · MPLX −0.8 · SOBO −0.2
8 Mar 11, 2026+6.16%
Before our storiesgroup +1.8%, did not move with it
8Mar 11, 2026+6.16%
Before our stories
+1.8% did not move with itPAA +2.2 · PAGP +2.2 · MPLX +1.3 · SOBO +1.2
9 Apr 17, 2026−4.92%
Before our storiesgroup −1.5%, did not move with it
9Apr 17, 2026−4.92%
Before our stories
−1.5% did not move with itPAGP −2.7 · PAA −2.3 · SOBO −0.7 · MPLX +1.2
10 Apr 29, 2026+5.10%
Before our storiesgroup +1.8%, did not move with it
10Apr 29, 2026+5.10%
Before our stories
+1.8% did not move with itSOBO +1.9 · PAGP +1.9 · PAA +1.7 · MPLX +0.8
11 May 6, 2026−4.59%
Before our storiesgroup −1.8%, did not move with it
11May 6, 2026−4.59%
Before our stories
−1.8% did not move with itPAGP −2.4 · PAA −1.8 · SOBO −1.7 · MPLX 0.0
12 Jun 15, 2026−5.63%
Nothing on DINOgroup −2.1%, did not move with it
12Jun 15, 2026−5.63%
Nothing on DINONo DINO story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−2.1% did not move with itPAA −2.2 · MPLX −2.1 · PAGP −2.0 · SOBO −1.4
13 Jul 8, 2026+6.33%
Nothing on DINOgroup +1.6%, did not move with it
13Jul 8, 2026+6.33%
Nothing on DINONo DINO story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+1.6% did not move with itSOBO +2.1 · PAA +2.0 · PAGP +1.2 · MPLX −0.1
14 Jul 13, 2026+4.65%
Nothing on DINOgroup +2.4%, moved with DINO
14Jul 13, 2026+4.65%
Nothing on DINONo DINO story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+2.4% moved with DINOSOBO +3.1 · PAA +2.8 · PAGP +2.0 · MPLX +0.5
15 Aug 5, 2026−5.97%
Nothing on DINOgroup −1.8%, did not move with it
15Aug 5, 2026−5.97%
Nothing on DINONo DINO story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−1.8% did not move with itMPLX −2.0 · SOBO −1.9 · PAA −1.6 · PAGP −1.4
16 Aug 10, 2026+4.68%
Nothing on DINOgroup +1.3%, did not move with it
16Aug 10, 2026+4.68%
Nothing on DINONo DINO story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+1.3% did not move with itPAA +2.0 · PAGP +1.7 · SOBO +0.8 · MPLX −0.3
17 Aug 21, 2026+4.96%
Nothing on DINOgroup −0.1%, did not move with it
17Aug 21, 2026+4.96%
Nothing on DINONo DINO story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−0.1% did not move with itPAGP +0.1 · PAA +0.1 · MPLX −0.3 · SOBO −1.8
18 Sep 15, 2026+4.99%
Nothing on DINOgroup −0.5%, did not move with it
18Sep 15, 2026+4.99%
Nothing on DINONo DINO story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−0.5% did not move with itPAA −0.3 · SOBO −0.3 · PAGP −0.6 · MPLX −0.8
19 Sep 21, 2026−5.70%
Nothing on DINOgroup −1.4%, did not move with it
19Sep 21, 2026−5.70%
Nothing on DINONo DINO story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−1.4% did not move with itSOBO −2.2 · PAA −1.5 · PAGP −1.2 · MPLX −0.6
20 Oct 1, 2026+5.01%
Nothing on DINOgroup +0.1%, did not move with it
20Oct 1, 2026+5.01%
Nothing on DINONo DINO story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+0.1% did not move with itSOBO +1.1 · PAGP +0.1 · MPLX +0.1 · PAA −0.1
21 Oct 27, 2026−8.81%
Nothing on DINOgroup −1.2%, did not move with it
21Oct 27, 2026−8.81%
Nothing on DINONo DINO story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−1.2% did not move with itPAA −1.6 · PAGP −1.5 · MPLX −0.9 · SOBO −0.6
22 Nov 4, 2026−7.75%
Nothing on DINOgroup −2.4%, did not move with it
22Nov 4, 2026−7.75%
Nothing on DINONo DINO story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−2.4% did not move with itPAA −2.5 · PAGP −2.5 · SOBO −2.2 · MPLX −2.2

A story on the same day is not a cause, and a group move is not proof either. Group: the median of MPLX, PAA, SOBO and PAGP that day, the largest companies in DINO’s SEC industry; “moved with DINO” means the same direction and at least half the size.

What’s next · results

Before the next report: what the first day after the last four did

Six trading days after each results filing (SEC 8-K, Item 2.02). DINO reports before the open, so day 1 is that day’s close. Each time, day 6 ended on the same side as day 1.

Reported Feb 18, 2026

day 1−10.86%day 6−13.81%

Reported May 1, 2026

day 1+2.92%day 6+7.77%

Reported Jul 28, 2026

day 1−1.63%day 6−2.79%

Reported Oct 28, 2026

day 1−1.97%day 6−8.44%

Next report: expected late January to mid FebruaryEstimated from the dates of its last four results filings. Not announced. Since the Oct 28 report: −8.44%. Four reports is a small sample.

Every report since 2023 →

Each line is DINO’s close against its close before the filing, on licensed end-of-day closes. What happened after each report, not a forecast; a move on the day is not a cause.

Same industry

DINO against four same-industry peers, a year at 100

DINO is up 91.1% in a year. All four did less: Plains GP (+53.7%), Plains All American Pipeline (+51.6%), South Bow (+31.0%) and MPLX (+9.7%). Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, on a log scale, so the same percentage move is the same height on every line.

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DINO +91.1%. Plains GP +53.7%, Plains All American Pipeline +51.6%, South Bow +31.0%, MPLX +9.7%. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, log scale.

Share this chart

End-of-day closes (Databento EOD), the last close of each week. The four peers are the largest US-listed companies by market value in DINO’s SEC industry (Pipe Lines (No Natural Gas)) with a year of closes. It shows what the closes did; a move here is not a cause, a forecast or a call.

The Wire at 7 AM ET, free. Top stories with a bull and a bear case on each, every morning. No account needed.

MPLX	MPLX	$57.0B	+0.53%
PAA	Plains All American Pipeline	$17.8B	−2.70%
SOBO	South Bow	$7.1B	−7.17%
PAGP	Plains GP	$5.3B	−2.01%
DKL	Delek Logistics Partners	$2.8B	−2.05%
GEL	Genesis Energy	$1.6B	−5.81%