MPLX MPLX

NYSE · Pipe Lines (No Natural Gas) · $57.0B

$56.55+0.53%Nov 5 close · Databento

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MPLX Wire Story Reactions & EOD Technical StudyDaily closes (Databento EOD) pinned with every AlgoThesis Wire story (dot colour = next trading day close) and SEC filing

Nov 5, 2026CLOSE $56.551D +0.53%3M −3.66%SMA20 $58.00SMA50 $58.26RSI(14) 41.1

56.55

RSI (14, Wilder EOD) · 70 Overbought / 30 OversoldRSI 41.1

Data provided by Databento (end of day). Next close = the first close after a story against the close before it; official daily closes only, not a call, not advice.

1 story has a settled next close so far (1 on the Wire). The record starts speaking at three.

The numbers

fiscal 2025, as filed with the SEC · 66-metric EOD snapshot via Databento

Market cap$57.0B

EV / True FCF13.8x

Revenue$13.0B +8.9%

True FCF (ex-SBC)$4.1B −16.1%

Rule of 4040.5%

ROIC65.1%

True FCF Yield7.2%

Modern Valuation (EOD)

Market Cap$57.0B

Enterprise Value$56.4B

EV / True FCF13.80

EV / FCF13.75

EV / Gross Profit—

EV / EBIT9.49

EV / Sales4.34

P / E (GAAP)11.52

P / FCF13.91

P / Oper. CF9.65

P / Book5.90

Owner & Cash Yields

True FCF Yield7.2%

FCF Yield7.2%

Owner Earn. Yield7.9%

Earnings Yield8.7%

Shareholder Yield+0.7%

Buyback Yield0.7%

Dividend Yield—

Dividend / sh—

Payout Ratio—

FCF / sh$4.05

EPS (diluted)—

Compounder & Returns

Rule of 4040.5%

ROIC65.1%

Cash ROIC (CROIC)45.4%

GP / Assets—

ROE51.2%

ROA11.5%

Gross Margin—

Oper. Margin45.7%

Net Margin38.1%

FCF Margin31.6%

True FCF Margin31.4%

Quality & Dilution

Cash Conversion83%

Accrual Ratio−2.2%

SBC % of FCF0.3%

SBC % of Rev0.1%

Reinvest. Rate31%

Sales Growth Y/Y+8.9%

Sales 3Y CAGR+3.8%

EPS Growth Y/Y—

FCF Growth Y/Y−16.1%

FCF 3Y CAGR−0.9%

Share Change Y/Y—

Balance Sheet & Scale

Revenue (FY)$13.0B

Gross Profit (FY)—

Oper. Income (FY)$5.9B

GAAP Net Income$5.0B

True FCF (ex-SBC)$4.1B

Cash & Equiv$2.1B

Total Debt$1.5B

Net Cash (Debt)$635.0M

Net Cash % MCap+1.1%

Debt / FCF (yrs)0.4y

Current Ratio1.231.01B sh

Price & Technicals (EOD)

Perf Week−5.58%

Perf Month−0.88%

Perf Quarter−3.91%

Perf Half Y+0.50%

Perf YTD+1.54%

SMA 20 Dist−2.51%$58.00

SMA 50 Dist−2.94%$58.26

SMA 100 Dist−2.56%$58.04

Window High−6.54%$60.51

Window Low+4.72%$54.00

RSI (14) · Vol41.121%v

Income Distribution & Cash Flow ConversionHow every dollar of MPLX revenue flows through cost of goods, operating expenses, taxes, GAAP net income, and dilution-adjusted free cash flow

Where Every $100 of Revenue Goes (FY2025)

Cost of Revenue (COGS)$0 ($0.0 / $100)

Operating Expenses$7.1B ($54.3 / $100)

Tax & Non-Operating$991.0M ($7.6 / $100)

Net Profit Kept$5.0B ($38.1 / $100)

Earnings Quality: GAAP Profit → True Owner Cash (FY2025)

GAAP Net Income$5.0B (38.1% margin)

Operating Cash Flow (OCF)$5.9B(45.5% of rev)

Less: Capital Expenditures−$1.8B(13.9% of rev)

Standard Free Cash Flow (FCF)$4.1B(31.6% margin)

Less: Stock-Based Comp (SBC)−$14.0M(0.3% of FCF)

True FCF (Owner Cash ex-SBC)$4.1B(31.4% of rev)

Revenue by fiscal year

Operating leverage — margins

GrossOperatingNet

Line Item (USD)	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	YoY Δ	4Y CAGR
Income Statement
Revenue	$10.0B	$11.6B	$11.3B	$11.9B	$13.0B	+8.9%	+6.7%
Operating Income (EBIT)	$4.0B	$4.9B	$4.9B	$5.3B	$5.9B	+12.4%	+10.5%
Income Tax Expense	$1.0M	$8.0M	$11.0M	$10.0M	$10.0M	+0.0%	+77.8%
GAAP Net Income	$3.1B	$3.9B	$3.9B	$4.4B	$5.0B	+13.7%	+12.6%
Diluted Shares	—	—	—	—	1.01B	—	—
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalents	$13.0M	$238.0M	$1.0B	$1.5B	$2.1B	+40.7%	+258.1%
Total Current Assets	$1.5B	$1.9B	$2.8B	$3.3B	$4.0B	+21.9%	+27.6%
Total Assets	$35.5B	$35.7B	$36.5B	$37.5B	$43.0B	+14.6%	+4.9%
Total Current Liabilities	$3.3B	$2.4B	$2.6B	$3.2B	$3.2B	+0.4%	−0.7%
Total Debt (Short + Long Term)	$499.0M	$988.0M	$1.1B	$1.7B	$1.5B	−11.3%	+31.7%
Total Liabilities	$22.5B	$22.2B	$22.9B	$23.5B	$28.5B	+21.2%	+6.1%
Stockholders' Equity	$9.7B	$9.7B	$9.7B	$9.7B	$9.7B	+0.0%	+0.0%
Net Cash / (Net Debt)	$-486.0M	$-750.0M	$-87.0M	$-174.0M	$635.0M	+464.9%	—
Invested Capital	$10.2B	$10.4B	$9.8B	$9.8B	$9.0B	−8.2%	−2.9%
Cash Flow & Capital Allocation
Operating Cash Flow (OCF)	$4.9B	$5.0B	$5.4B	$5.9B	$5.9B	−0.6%	+4.7%
Depreciation & Amortization (D&A)	—	—	—	—	$1.4B	—	—
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)	—	—	—	—	$14.0M	—	—
Capital Expenditures (CapEx)	$529.0M	$806.0M	$937.0M	$1.1B	$1.8B	+71.2%	+36.0%
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	$4.4B	$4.2B	$4.5B	$4.9B	$4.1B	−16.1%	−1.6%
True FCF (ex-SBC Owner Cash)	$4.4B	$4.2B	$4.5B	$4.9B	$4.1B	−16.4%	−1.7%
Share Repurchases (Buybacks)	$630.0M	$491.0M	$0	$326.0M	$400.0M	+22.7%	−10.7%

Fundamentals, income distribution and multi-year statements from SEC EDGAR filings (public domain). Valuation multiples, performance and technicals computed from Databento 1D EOD closes. For information only, not investment advice.

On the Wire

what MPLX did at the next close after each story

Nov 3

MPLX raises distribution 12.5% to $4.84 after $1.2 billion profit

PR Newswire · 6:45 AM ET

−2.44%

What happened · big days

10 big days in a year, and what we hold on each

A big day is a close more than 2.24% from the one before, three times MPLX’s median day (0.75%). On 4 of the 10, its peer group moved the same way at least half as far. We show what we hold. We never name a cause.

every other trading daya big day, numbered in the list below±2.24%Hover a bar for its day. Click a big day to open it.

Shaded: since our stories began, Jun 10. Tap a bar for its day.

#DayMPLXWhat we hold that dayGroup (median of 4) · each

1 Nov 14, 2025+2.43%
Before our storiesgroup +3.1%, moved with MPLX
1Nov 14, 2025+2.43%
Before our stories
+3.1% moved with MPLXSOBO +5.1 · DINO +3.9 · PAA +2.3 · PAGP +2.0
2 Dec 18, 2025−2.31%
Before our storiesgroup −0.7%, did not move with it
2Dec 18, 2025−2.31%
Before our stories
−0.7% did not move with itDINO −1.2 · PAGP −0.7 · PAA −0.6 · SOBO −0.5
3 Feb 13, 2026+3.05%
Before our storiesgroup +1.9%, moved with MPLX
3Feb 13, 2026+3.05%
Before our stories
+1.9% moved with MPLXSOBO +2.8 · DINO +2.0 · PAA +1.9 · PAGP +1.7
4 May 5, 2026−2.64%
Resultsgroup +0.2%, did not move with it
4May 5, 2026−2.64%
ResultsFirst close after the May 5 results filing
+0.2% did not move with itPAA −0.3 · PAGP −0.1 · SOBO +0.4 · DINO +3.8
5 May 8, 2026−4.03%
Before our storiesgroup −1.4%, did not move with it
5May 8, 2026−4.03%
Before our stories
−1.4% did not move with itPAGP −1.9 · PAA −1.7 · SOBO −1.1 · DINO +2.7
6 Jun 24, 2026−2.51%
Nothing on MPLXgroup −1.5%, moved with MPLX
6Jun 24, 2026−2.51%
Nothing on MPLXNo MPLX story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−1.5% moved with MPLXPAA −2.0 · PAGP −1.8 · SOBO −1.3 · DINO +0.2
7 Jul 29, 2026−2.38%
Nothing on MPLXgroup +1.1%, did not move with it
7Jul 29, 2026−2.38%
Nothing on MPLXNo MPLX story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+1.1% did not move with itSOBO +0.5 · DINO +0.8 · PAGP +1.5 · PAA +1.9
8 Aug 4, 2026+2.72%
Resultsgroup −1.3%, did not move with it
8Aug 4, 2026+2.72%
ResultsFirst close after the Aug 4 results filing
−1.3% did not move with itSOBO −0.2 · DINO −0.5 · PAGP −2.1 · PAA −2.7
9 Aug 7, 2026−2.60%
Nothing on MPLXgroup −2.2%, moved with MPLX
9Aug 7, 2026−2.60%
Nothing on MPLXNo MPLX story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−2.2% moved with MPLXPAA −3.0 · PAGP −2.5 · DINO −1.8 · SOBO +0.8
10 Nov 3, 2026−2.44%
Results · 1 storygroup +0.6%, did not move with it
10Nov 3, 2026−2.44%
Results · 1 storyFirst close after the Nov 3 results filing
+0.6% did not move with itSOBO −0.7 · PAGP +0.5 · PAA +0.7 · DINO +1.5

A story on the same day is not a cause, and a group move is not proof either. Group: the median of DINO, PAA, SOBO and PAGP that day, the largest companies in MPLX’s SEC industry; “moved with MPLX” means the same direction and at least half the size.

What’s next · results

Before the next report: what the first day after the last four did

Six trading days after each results filing (SEC 8-K, Item 2.02). MPLX reports before the open, so day 1 is that day’s close. 3 of 4 times, day 6 ended on the same side as day 1.

Reported Nov 4, 2025

day 1+0.69%day 6+2.34%

Reported Feb 3, 2026

day 1−0.09%day 6+0.11%

Reported May 5, 2026

day 1−2.64%day 6−4.86%

Reported Aug 4, 2026

day 1+2.72%day 6+0.66%

Next report: expected early FebruaryEstimated from the dates of its last four results filings. Not announced. Since the Nov 3 report: −4.56%. Four reports is a small sample.

Every report since 2023 →

Each line is MPLX’s close against its close before the filing, on licensed end-of-day closes. What happened after each report, not a forecast; a move on the day is not a cause.

Same industry

MPLX against four same-industry peers, a year at 100

MPLX is up 9.7% in a year. HF Sinclair is up 91.1%, Plains GP 53.7%, Plains All American Pipeline 51.6% and South Bow 31.0%. All four did more. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, on a log scale, so the same percentage move is the same height on every line.

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MPLX +9.7%. HF Sinclair +91.1%, Plains GP +53.7%, Plains All American Pipeline +51.6%, South Bow +31.0%. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, log scale.

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End-of-day closes (Databento EOD), the last close of each week. The four peers are the largest US-listed companies by market value in MPLX’s SEC industry (Pipe Lines (No Natural Gas)) with a year of closes. It shows what the closes did; a move here is not a cause, a forecast or a call.

The Wire at 7 AM ET, free. Top stories with a bull and a bear case on each, every morning. No account needed.

DINO	HF Sinclair	$18.6B	−6.50%
PAA	Plains All American Pipeline	$17.8B	−2.70%
SOBO	South Bow	$7.1B	−7.17%
PAGP	Plains GP	$5.3B	−2.01%
DKL	Delek Logistics Partners	$2.8B	−2.05%
GEL	Genesis Energy	$1.6B	−5.81%