Expand Energy EXE
Nasdaq · Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas · $20.2B$85.34−2.26%Nov 5 close · Databento
EXE Wire Story Reactions & EOD Technical StudyDaily closes (Databento EOD) pinned with every AlgoThesis Wire story (dot colour = next trading day close) and SEC filing
Nov 5, 2026CLOSE $85.341D −2.26%3M −12.53%SMA20 $91.13SMA50 $91.31RSI(14) 32.9
85.34
RSI (14, Wilder EOD) · 70 Overbought / 30 OversoldRSI 32.9
Data provided by Databento (end of day). Next close = the first close after a story against the close before it; official daily closes only, not a call, not advice.
The numbers
fiscal 2025, as filed with the SEC · 66-metric EOD snapshot via DatabentoMarket cap$20.2B
EV / True FCF13.7x
Revenue$12.1B +186.3%
True FCF (ex-SBC)$1.8B +22887.5%
Rule of 40201.5%
ROIC8.6%
True FCF Yield8.9%
EPS, diluted$7.57 +266.4%
Modern Valuation (EOD)
Market Cap$20.2B
Enterprise Value$24.5B
EV / True FCF13.68
EV / FCF13.34
EV / Gross Profit—
EV / EBIT9.93
EV / Sales2.02
P / E (GAAP)11.11
P / FCF10.99
P / Oper. CF4.42
P / Book1.09
Owner & Cash Yields
True FCF Yield8.9%
FCF Yield9.1%
Owner Earn. Yield10.0%
Earnings Yield9.0%
Shareholder Yield+4.1%
Buyback Yield0.5%
Dividend Yield—
Dividend / sh$0.00
Payout Ratio42%
FCF / sh$7.96
EPS (diluted)$7.57
Compounder & Returns
Rule of 40201.5%
ROIC8.6%
Cash ROIC (CROIC)8.0%
GP / Assets—
ROE9.8%
ROA6.4%
Gross Margin—
Oper. Margin20.4%
Net Margin15.0%
FCF Margin15.2%
True FCF Margin14.8%
Quality & Dilution
Cash Conversion101%
Accrual Ratio−9.7%
SBC % of FCF2.5%
SBC % of Rev0.4%
Reinvest. Rate60%
Sales Growth Y/Y+186.3%
Sales 3Y CAGR+1.1%
EPS Growth Y/Y+266.4%
FCF Growth Y/Y+22887.5%
FCF 3Y CAGR−7.2%
Share Change Y/Y+53.1%
Balance Sheet & Scale
Revenue (FY)$12.1B
Gross Profit (FY)—
Oper. Income (FY)$2.5B
GAAP Net Income$1.8B
True FCF (ex-SBC)$1.8B
Cash & Equiv$696.0M
Total Debt$5.0B
Net Cash (Debt)$-4.3B
Net Cash % MCap−21.3%
Debt / FCF (yrs)2.7y
Current Ratio1.01230.96M sh
Price & Technicals (EOD)
Perf Week−5.64%
Perf Month−3.15%
Perf Quarter−8.08%
Perf Half Y−12.40%
Perf YTD−10.61%
SMA 20 Dist−6.35%$91.13
SMA 50 Dist−6.54%$91.31
SMA 100 Dist−6.57%$91.34
Window High−16.46%$102.15
Window Low+1.49%$84.09
RSI (14) · Vol32.927%v
Income Distribution & Cash Flow ConversionHow every dollar of EXE revenue flows through cost of goods, operating expenses, taxes, GAAP net income, and dilution-adjusted free cash flow
Where Every $100 of Revenue Goes (FY2025)
Cost of Revenue (COGS)$0 ($0.0 / $100)
Operating Expenses$9.7B ($79.6 / $100)
Tax & Non-Operating$652.0M ($5.4 / $100)
Net Profit Kept$1.8B ($15.0 / $100)
Earnings Quality: GAAP Profit → True Owner Cash (FY2025)
GAAP Net Income$1.8B (15.0% margin)
Operating Cash Flow (OCF)$4.6B(37.7% of rev)
Less: Capital Expenditures−$2.7B(22.6% of rev)
Standard Free Cash Flow (FCF)$1.8B(15.2% margin)
Less: Stock-Based Comp (SBC)−$46.0M(2.5% of FCF)
True FCF (Owner Cash ex-SBC)$1.8B(14.8% of rev)
Revenue by fiscal year
Operating leverage — margins
GrossOperatingNet
| Line Item (USD) | FY2020 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | YoY Δ | 4Y CAGR | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | ||||||||
| Revenue | $5.2B | $11.7B | $8.7B | $4.2B | $12.1B | +186.3% | +23.3% | |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | $-8.7B | $3.8B | $3.1B | $-803.0M | $2.5B | +407.7% | — | |
| Interest Expense | $331.0M | $160.0M | $104.0M | $123.0M | $235.0M | +91.1% | −8.2% | |
| Income Tax Expense | $-19.0M | $-1.3B | $698.0M | $-127.0M | $463.0M | +464.6% | — | |
| GAAP Net Income | $-9.7B | $4.9B | $2.4B | $-714.0M | $1.8B | +354.8% | — | |
| Diluted EPS | $-998.26 | $33.36 | $16.92 | $-4.55 | $7.57 | +266.4% | — | |
| Diluted Shares | 9.8M | 146.0M | 143.0M | 157.0M | 240.4M | +53.1% | +122.7% | |
| Balance Sheet | ||||||||
| Cash & Equivalents | $279.0M | $192.0M | $1.2B | $395.0M | $696.0M | +76.2% | +25.7% | |
| Inventory | $25.0M | $25.0M | $25.0M | $25.0M | $19.0M | −24.0% | −6.6% | |
| Total Current Assets | $1.1B | $2.7B | $2.6B | $2.0B | $2.9B | +46.0% | +27.4% | |
| Total Assets | $6.6B | $15.5B | $14.4B | $27.9B | $28.3B | +1.4% | +44.0% | |
| Total Current Liabilities | $3.1B | $2.7B | $1.3B | $3.1B | $2.9B | −7.1% | −1.6% | |
| Total Debt (Short + Long Term) | $1.9B | $3.0B | $2.0B | $6.1B | $5.0B | −17.5% | +26.9% | |
| Total Liabilities | $11.9B | $6.3B | $3.6B | $10.3B | $9.7B | −6.0% | −5.0% | |
| Stockholders' Equity | $-5.3B | $9.1B | $10.7B | $17.6B | $18.6B | +5.8% | — | |
| Net Cash / (Net Debt) | $-1.6B | $-2.8B | $-875.0M | $-5.7B | $-4.3B | +24.0% | — | |
| Invested Capital | $-3.7B | $11.9B | $11.6B | $23.2B | $22.9B | −1.5% | — | |
| Cash Flow & Capital Allocation | ||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow (OCF) | $1.2B | $4.1B | $2.4B | $1.6B | $4.6B | +192.3% | +40.8% | |
| Depreciation & Amortization (D&A) | $1.1B | $1.8B | $1.5B | $1.7B | $3.0B | +72.4% | +28.4% | |
| Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) | $21.0M | $22.0M | $33.0M | $38.0M | $46.0M | +21.1% | +21.7% | |
| Capital Expenditures (CapEx) | $1.1B | $1.8B | $1.8B | $1.6B | $2.7B | +75.7% | +24.4% | |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $22.0M | $2.3B | $551.0M | $8.0M | $1.8B | +22887.5% | +202.4% | |
| True FCF (ex-SBC Owner Cash) | $1.0M | $2.3B | $518.0M | $-30.0M | $1.8B | +6076.7% | +550.7% | |
| Share Repurchases (Buybacks) | $0 | $1.1B | $355.0M | $0 | $100.0M | — | — | |
| Dividends Paid | $0 | $1.2B | $487.0M | $388.0M | $765.0M | +97.2% | — | |
Fundamentals, income distribution and multi-year statements from SEC EDGAR filings (public domain). Valuation multiples, performance and technicals computed from Databento 1D EOD closes. For information only, not investment advice.
On the Wire
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