Home Depot HD

NYSE · Retail-Lumber & Other Building Materials Dealers · $354.4B

$349.94−1.55%Nov 5 close · Databento

Every report since 2022 →

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HD Wire Story Reactions & EOD Technical StudyDaily closes (Databento EOD) pinned with every AlgoThesis Wire story (dot colour = next trading day close) and SEC filing

Nov 5, 2026CLOSE $349.941D −1.55%3M −0.24%SMA20 $318.46SMA50 $309.09RSI(14) 69.5

349.94

RSI (14, Wilder EOD) · 70 Overbought / 30 OversoldRSI 69.5

Data provided by Databento (end of day). Next close = the first close after a story against the close before it; official daily closes only, not a call, not advice.

After a story on HD, the first close moved a median −2.85%. Up 1 of 5; over the next three trading days, a median −1.00%.

The numbers

fiscal 2026, as filed with the SEC · 66-metric EOD snapshot via Databento

Market cap$354.4B

Enterprise value$403.5B

Revenue$164.7B +3.2%

Gross margin33.3%

ROIC25.7%

EPS, diluted$14.23 −4.6%

Modern Valuation (EOD)

Market Cap$354.4B

Enterprise Value$403.5B

EV / True FCF—

EV / FCF—

EV / Gross Profit7.35

EV / EBIT19.31

EV / Sales2.45

P / E (GAAP)25.03

P / FCF—

P / Oper. CF21.71

P / Book27.66

Owner & Cash Yields

True FCF Yield—

FCF Yield—

Owner Earn. Yield—

Earnings Yield4.0%

Shareholder Yield+2.4%

Buyback Yield0.0%

Dividend Yield2.63%

Dividend / sh$9.20

Payout Ratio65%

FCF / sh—

EPS (diluted)$14.23

Compounder & Returns

Rule of 40—

ROIC25.7%

Cash ROIC (CROIC)—

GP / Assets52.2%

ROE110.5%

ROA13.5%

Gross Margin33.3%

Oper. Margin12.7%

Net Margin8.6%

FCF Margin—

True FCF Margin—

Quality & Dilution

Cash Conversion—

Accrual Ratio−2.1%

SBC % of FCF—

SBC % of Rev0.3%

Reinvest. Rate—

Sales Growth Y/Y+3.2%

Sales 3Y CAGR+1.5%

EPS Growth Y/Y−4.6%

FCF Growth Y/Y—

FCF 3Y CAGR—

Share Change Y/Y+0.2%

Balance Sheet & Scale

Revenue (FY)$164.7B

Gross Profit (FY)$54.9B

Oper. Income (FY)$20.9B

GAAP Net Income$14.2B

True FCF (ex-SBC)—

Cash & Equiv$1.4B

Total Debt$50.4B

Net Cash (Debt)$-49.0B

Net Cash % MCap−13.8%

Debt / FCF (yrs)—

Current Ratio1.06997.69M sh

Price & Technicals (EOD)

Perf Week+6.37%

Perf Month+22.46%

Perf Quarter−1.60%

Perf Half Y+8.46%

Perf YTD−0.30%

SMA 20 Dist+9.89%$318.46

SMA 50 Dist+13.22%$309.09

SMA 100 Dist+7.73%$324.84

Window High−2.22%$357.90

Window Low+24.47%$281.15

RSI (14) · Vol69.538%v

Income Distribution & Cash Flow ConversionHow every dollar of HD revenue flows through cost of goods, operating expenses, taxes, GAAP net income, and dilution-adjusted free cash flow

Where Every $100 of Revenue Goes (FY2026)

Cost of Revenue (COGS)$109.8B ($66.7 / $100)

SG&A & Other OpEx$34.0B ($20.6 / $100)

Tax & Non-Operating$6.7B ($4.1 / $100)

Net Profit Kept$14.2B ($8.6 / $100)

Earnings Quality: GAAP Profit → True Owner Cash (FY2026)

GAAP Net Income$14.2B (8.6% margin)

Operating Cash Flow (OCF)$16.3B(9.9% of rev)

Less: Capital Expenditures—

Standard Free Cash Flow (FCF)—

Less: Stock-Based Comp (SBC)−$522.0M

True FCF (Owner Cash ex-SBC)—

Revenue by fiscal year

Operating leverage — margins

GrossOperatingNet

Line Item (USD)	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	FY2026	YoY Δ	4Y CAGR
Income Statement
Revenue	$151.2B	$157.4B	$152.7B	$159.5B	$164.7B	+3.2%	+2.2%
Cost of Revenue (COGS)	$100.3B	$104.6B	$101.7B	$106.2B	$109.8B	+3.4%	+2.3%
Gross Profit	$50.8B	$52.8B	$51.0B	$53.3B	$54.9B	+2.9%	+1.9%
Selling, General & Admin (SG&A)	$25.4B	$26.3B	$26.6B	$28.7B	$30.7B	+6.8%	+4.8%
Total Operating Expenses	$27.8B	$28.7B	$29.3B	$31.8B	$34.0B	+6.9%	+5.2%
Operating Income (EBIT)	$23.0B	$24.0B	$21.7B	$21.5B	$20.9B	−3.0%	−2.4%
Interest Expense	$1.3B	$1.6B	$1.9B	$2.3B	$2.4B	+3.9%	+15.7%
Income Tax Expense	$5.3B	$5.4B	$4.8B	$4.6B	$4.4B	−3.3%	−4.3%
GAAP Net Income	$16.4B	$17.1B	$15.1B	$14.8B	$14.2B	−4.4%	−3.6%
Diluted EPS	$15.53	$16.69	$15.11	$14.91	$14.23	−4.6%	−2.2%
Diluted Shares	1.06B	1.02B	1.00B	993.0M	995.0M	+0.2%	−1.5%
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalents	$2.3B	$2.8B	$3.8B	$1.7B	$1.4B	−16.3%	−12.3%
Inventory	$22.1B	$24.9B	$21.0B	$23.5B	$25.8B	+10.1%	+4.0%
Total Current Assets	$29.1B	$32.5B	$29.8B	$31.7B	$34.4B	+8.5%	+4.3%
Total Assets	$71.9B	$76.4B	$76.5B	$96.1B	$105.1B	+9.3%	+10.0%
Total Current Liabilities	$28.7B	$23.1B	$22.0B	$28.7B	$32.4B	+13.1%	+3.1%
Total Debt (Short + Long Term)	$37.4B	$42.2B	$43.2B	$52.4B	$50.4B	−3.8%	+7.7%
Total Liabilities	$73.6B	$74.9B	$75.5B	$89.5B	$92.3B	+3.1%	+5.8%
Stockholders' Equity	$-1.7B	$1.6B	$1.0B	$6.6B	$12.8B	+93.0%	—
Net Cash / (Net Debt)	$-35.1B	$-39.4B	$-39.4B	$-50.7B	$-49.0B	+3.3%	—
Invested Capital	$33.4B	$41.0B	$40.5B	$57.4B	$61.9B	+7.8%	+16.7%
Cash Flow & Capital Allocation
Operating Cash Flow (OCF)	$16.6B	$14.6B	$21.2B	$19.8B	$16.3B	−17.6%	−0.4%
Depreciation & Amortization (D&A)	$2.9B	$2.8B	$3.1B	$3.3B	$3.5B	+5.3%	+5.3%
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)	$399.0M	$366.0M	$380.0M	$442.0M	$522.0M	+18.1%	+6.9%
Share Repurchases (Buybacks)	$14.8B	$6.7B	$8.0B	$649.0M	$0	−100.0%	—
Dividends Paid	$7.0B	$7.8B	$8.4B	$8.9B	$9.2B	+2.5%	+7.0%

Fundamentals, income distribution and multi-year statements from SEC EDGAR filings (public domain). Valuation multiples, performance and technicals computed from Databento 1D EOD closes. For information only, not investment advice.

On the Wire

what HD did at the next close after each story

Aug 28

Home Depot posts record sales growth as CEO Ted Decker takes leave

Yahoo Finance · 1:58 PM ET

+0.48%

Aug 28

Walmart (WMT) and Home Depot (HD) Results Show US Consumers Cut Back but Still Find Room for Splurges

Yahoo Finance · 10:41 AM ET

—

Aug 19

Home Depot Q2 sales rise 5.7% to $47.9 billion; reaffirms fiscal 2026 guidance

PR Newswire · 9:28 PM ET

−2.85%

Aug 18

Klarna stock plunges on trimmed guidance; Home Depot gains on earnings

Yahoo Finance · 5:02 PM ET

—

Aug 17

Home Depot earnings test retail resilience as long-term yields rise amid FOMC data

ZeroHedge · 10:25 AM ET

−0.29%

Aug 12

Home Depot CEO Ted Decker takes medical leave, expected back in months

NYT Business · 1:24 PM ET

−3.12%

The record, by topic

last 90 days · stories · median first close

consumer4−2.85%

macro1−0.29%

What happened · big days

16 big days in a year, and what we hold on each

A big day is a close more than 3.17% from the one before, three times HD’s median day (1.06%). On 14 of the 16, its peer group moved the same way at least half as far. We show what we hold. We never name a cause.

every other trading daya big day, numbered in the list below±3.17%Hover a bar for its day. Click a big day to open it.

Shaded: since our stories began, Jun 10. Tap a bar for its day.

#DayHDWhat we hold that dayGroup (median of 4) · each

1 Nov 18, 2025−6.02%
Resultsgroup −0.8%, did not move with it
1Nov 18, 2025−6.02%
ResultsFirst close after the Nov 18 results filing
−0.8% did not move with itLOW −2.4 · BLDR −0.8 · JCTC −0.8 · FND +2.2
2 Nov 21, 2025+3.29%
Before our storiesgroup +3.9%, moved with HD
2Nov 21, 2025+3.29%
Before our stories
+3.9% moved with HDBLDR +7.1 · FND +5.3 · LOW +2.6 · JCTC +1.2
3 Nov 25, 2025+4.31%
Before our storiesgroup +4.9%, moved with HD
3Nov 25, 2025+4.31%
Before our stories
+4.9% moved with HDBLDR +8.4 · FND +5.7 · LOW +4.1 · JCTC +1.2
4 Jan 9, 2026+4.19%
Before our storiesgroup +6.1%, moved with HD
4Jan 9, 2026+4.19%
Before our stories
+6.1% moved with HDBLDR +12.0 · FND +8.0 · LOW +4.3 · JCTC −2.0
5 Mar 12, 2026−3.39%
Before our storiesgroup −3.5%, moved with HD
5Mar 12, 2026−3.39%
Before our stories
−3.5% moved with HDBLDR −5.0 · FND −4.1 · LOW −3.0 · JCTC −2.2
6 Apr 8, 2026+5.46%
Before our storiesgroup +5.2%, moved with HD
6Apr 8, 2026+5.46%
Before our stories
+5.2% moved with HDFND +7.3 · BLDR +5.3 · LOW +5.2 · JCTC +2.0
7 Apr 17, 2026+3.63%
Before our storiesgroup +3.2%, moved with HD
7Apr 17, 2026+3.63%
Before our stories
+3.2% moved with HDBLDR +5.5 · LOW +3.8 · FND +2.6 · JCTC +1.0
8 May 4, 2026−3.54%
Before our storiesgroup −3.4%, moved with HD
8May 4, 2026−3.54%
Before our stories
−3.4% moved with HDFND −4.7 · LOW −4.1 · BLDR −2.6 · JCTC +0.5
9 Jun 9, 2026+3.75%
Before our storiesgroup +5.3%, moved with HD
9Jun 9, 2026+3.75%
Before our stories
+5.3% moved with HDFND +8.3 · BLDR +6.0 · LOW +4.5 · JCTC −1.5
10 Jun 24, 2026+5.67%
Nothing on HDgroup +7.2%, moved with HD
10Jun 24, 2026+5.67%
Nothing on HDNo HD story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+7.2% moved with HDBLDR +11.3 · FND +10.7 · LOW +3.7 · JCTC −8.0
11 Oct 8, 2026+3.39%
Nothing on HDgroup +1.0%, did not move with it
11Oct 8, 2026+3.39%
Nothing on HDNo HD story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+1.0% did not move with itLOW +4.0 · FND +1.5 · BLDR +0.5 · JCTC −2.8
12 Oct 15, 2026+4.31%
Nothing on HDgroup +3.7%, moved with HD
12Oct 15, 2026+4.31%
Nothing on HDNo HD story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+3.7% moved with HDBLDR +6.3 · LOW +3.9 · FND +3.5 · JCTC 0.0
13 Oct 22, 2026+4.33%
Nothing on HDgroup +5.4%, moved with HD
13Oct 22, 2026+4.33%
Nothing on HDNo HD story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+5.4% moved with HDBLDR +7.5 · FND +6.8 · LOW +4.0 · JCTC −4.9
14 Oct 29, 2026+3.60%
Nothing on HDgroup +5.2%, moved with HD
14Oct 29, 2026+3.60%
Nothing on HDNo HD story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+5.2% moved with HDBLDR +12.8 · FND +5.9 · LOW +4.5 · JCTC +2.2
15 Nov 2, 2026+3.63%
Nothing on HDgroup +3.8%, moved with HD
15Nov 2, 2026+3.63%
Nothing on HDNo HD story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+3.8% moved with HDBLDR +4.5 · LOW +4.3 · FND +3.3 · JCTC +3.1
16 Nov 4, 2026+6.53%
Nothing on HDgroup +8.4%, moved with HD
16Nov 4, 2026+6.53%
Nothing on HDNo HD story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+8.4% moved with HDFND +10.9 · BLDR +9.3 · LOW +7.5 · JCTC +0.7

A story on the same day is not a cause, and a group move is not proof either. Group: the median of LOW, BLDR, FND and JCTC that day, the largest companies in HD’s SEC industry; “moved with HD” means the same direction and at least half the size.

What’s next · results

Before the next report: what the first day after the last four did

Six trading days after each results filing (SEC 8-K, Item 2.02). HD reports before the open, so day 1 is that day’s close. 2 of 4 times, day 6 ended on the same side as day 1.

Reported Nov 18, 2025

day 1−6.02%day 6−1.94%

Reported Feb 24, 2026

day 1+1.99%day 6−2.67%

Reported May 19, 2026

day 1+0.88%day 6+6.02%

Reported Aug 18, 2026

day 1−0.12%day 60.00%

Next report: expected mid NovemberEstimated from the dates of its last four results filings. Not announced. Since the Aug 18 report: +5.20%. Four reports is a small sample.

Every report since 2022 →

Each line is HD’s close against its close before the filing, on licensed end-of-day closes. What happened after each report, not a forecast; a move on the day is not a cause.

Same industry

HD against four same-industry peers, a year at 100

HD is down 4.2% in a year. Jewett Cameron Trading is up 6.7% and Lowes Companies is down 1.6%. Of these four, Floor & Decor (−13.2%) and Builders FirstSource (−40.1%) did less. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, on a log scale, so the same percentage move is the same height on every line.

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HD −4.2%. Jewett Cameron Trading +6.7%, Lowes Companies −1.6%, Floor & Decor −13.2%, Builders FirstSource −40.1%. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, log scale.

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End-of-day closes (Databento EOD), the last close of each week. The four peers are the largest US-listed companies by market value in HD’s SEC industry (Retail-Lumber & Other Building Materials Dealers) with a year of closes. It shows what the closes did; a move here is not a cause, a forecast or a call.

The Wire at 7 AM ET, free. Top stories with a bull and a bear case on each, every morning. No account needed.

LOW	Lowes Companies	$128.6B	−0.93%
BLDR	Builders FirstSource	$7.5B	−5.76%
FND	Floor & Decor	$5.7B	−3.63%
JCTC	Jewett Cameron Trading	$10M	−0.35%