HighPeak Energy HPK

Nasdaq · Drilling Oil & Gas Wells · $957M

$7.14−5.62%Nov 5 close · Databento

Every report since 2023 →

🔒 Click to interact · scroll moves the page

HPK Wire Story Reactions & EOD Technical StudyDaily closes (Databento EOD) pinned with every AlgoThesis Wire story (dot colour = next trading day close) and SEC filing

Nov 5, 2026CLOSE $7.141D −5.62%3M −9.85%SMA20 $10.10SMA50 $8.91RSI(14) 29.9

7.14

RSI (14, Wilder EOD) · 70 Overbought / 30 OversoldRSI 29.9

Data provided by Databento (end of day). Next close = the first close after a story against the close before it; official daily closes only, not a call, not advice.

The numbers

fiscal 2025, as filed with the SEC · 66-metric EOD snapshot via Databento

Market cap$957M

Enterprise value$2.0B

Revenue$863.4M −22.7%

ROIC4.0%

EPS, diluted$0.14 −79.1%

Modern Valuation (EOD)

Market Cap$957M

Enterprise Value$2.0B

EV / True FCF—

EV / FCF—

EV / Gross Profit—

EV / EBIT13.65

EV / Sales2.37

P / E (GAAP)0.05

P / FCF—

P / Oper. CF1.87

P / Book0.60

Owner & Cash Yields

True FCF Yield—

FCF Yield—

Owner Earn. Yield—

Earnings Yield1982.3%

Shareholder Yield+2.1%

Buyback Yield0.0%

Dividend Yield2.24%

Dividend / sh$0.16

Payout Ratio0%

FCF / sh—

EPS (diluted)$0.14

Compounder & Returns

Rule of 40—

ROIC4.0%

Cash ROIC (CROIC)—

GP / Assets—

ROE1189.2%

ROA590.1%

Gross Margin—

Oper. Margin17.4%

Net Margin2196.4%

FCF Margin—

True FCF Margin—

Quality & Dilution

Cash Conversion—

Accrual Ratio+574.1%

SBC % of FCF—

SBC % of Rev0.1%

Reinvest. Rate—

Sales Growth Y/Y−22.7%

Sales 3Y CAGR+4.5%

EPS Growth Y/Y−79.1%

FCF Growth Y/Y—

FCF 3Y CAGR—

Share Change Y/Y−3.0%

Balance Sheet & Scale

Revenue (FY)$863.4M

Gross Profit (FY)—

Oper. Income (FY)$150.0M

GAAP Net Income$19.0B

True FCF (ex-SBC)—

Cash & Equiv$162.1M

Total Debt$1.3B

Net Cash (Debt)$-1.1B

Net Cash % MCap−114.0%

Debt / FCF (yrs)—

Current Ratio1.13126.45M sh

Price & Technicals (EOD)

Perf Week−31.67%

Perf Month−16.20%

Perf Quarter−0.83%

Perf Half Y+27.73%

Perf YTD+25.70%

SMA 20 Dist−29.27%$10.10

SMA 50 Dist−19.86%$8.91

SMA 100 Dist−11.95%$8.11

Window High−38.29%$11.57

Window Low+27.73%$5.59

RSI (14) · Vol29.9100%v

Income Distribution & Cash Flow ConversionHow every dollar of HPK revenue flows through cost of goods, operating expenses, taxes, GAAP net income, and dilution-adjusted free cash flow

Where Every $100 of Revenue Goes (FY2025)

Cost of Revenue (COGS)$0 ($0.0 / $100)

SG&A & Other OpEx$713.4M ($82.6 / $100)

Tax & Non-Operating$0 ($0.0 / $100)

Net Profit Kept$19.0B ($17.4 / $100)

Earnings Quality: GAAP Profit → True Owner Cash (FY2025)

GAAP Net Income$19.0B (2196.4% margin)

Operating Cash Flow (OCF)$511.6M(59.3% of rev)

Less: Capital Expenditures—

Standard Free Cash Flow (FCF)—

Less: Stock-Based Comp (SBC)−$619,000

True FCF (Owner Cash ex-SBC)—

Revenue by fiscal year

Operating leverage — margins

GrossOperatingNet

Line Item (USD)	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	YoY Δ	4Y CAGR
Income Statement
Revenue	$220.1M	$755.7M	$1.1B	$1.1B	$863.4M	−22.7%	+40.7%
Selling, General & Admin (SG&A)	$8.9M	$12.5M	$16.6M	$20.4M	$25.3M	+23.9%	+29.9%
Operating Income (EBIT)	$101.7M	$422.6M	$426.5M	$337.4M	$150.0M	−55.5%	+10.2%
Interest Expense	$2.5M	$50.6M	$147.9M	$168.7M	$147.1M	−12.8%	+177.4%
Income Tax Expense	$16.9M	$75.4M	$65.9M	$35.9M	$7.2M	−79.9%	−19.2%
GAAP Net Income	$55.6M	$236.9M	$215.9B	$95.1B	$19.0B	−80.1%	+329.8%
Diluted EPS	$0.54	$1.93	$1.58	$0.67	$0.14	−79.1%	−28.6%
Diluted Shares	94.8M	111.2M	123.0M	129.2M	125.3M	−3.0%	+7.2%
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalents	$34.9M	$30.5M	$194.5M	$86.6M	$162.1M	+87.0%	+46.8%
Inventory	$3.3M	$13.3M	$7.3M	$11.0M	$7.6M	−30.2%	+23.3%
Total Current Assets	$87.0M	$144.5M	$328.8M	$195.0M	$259.9M	+33.3%	+31.5%
Total Assets	$819.0M	$2.3B	$3.1B	$3.1B	$3.2B	+4.9%	+40.7%
Total Current Liabilities	$103.0M	$266.1M	$287.4M	$284.6M	$230.3M	−19.1%	+22.3%
Total Debt (Short + Long Term)	$97.9M	$704.3M	$1.3B	$1.2B	$1.3B	+7.2%	+89.1%
Stockholders' Equity	$553.1M	$1.2B	$1.6B	$1.6B	$1.6B	−0.5%	+30.3%
Net Cash / (Net Debt)	$-63.1M	$-673.8M	$-1.1B	$-1.1B	$-1.1B	−0.8%	—
Invested Capital	$616.1M	$1.8B	$2.6B	$2.7B	$2.7B	+0.0%	+44.5%
Cash Flow & Capital Allocation
Operating Cash Flow (OCF)	$147.0M	$504.0M	$756.4M	$690.4M	$511.6M	−25.9%	+36.6%
Depreciation & Amortization (D&A)	$65.2M	$177.7M	$424.4M	$500.8M	$421.8M	−15.8%	+59.5%
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)	$6.7M	$33.4M	$26.0M	$12.7M	$619,000	−95.1%	−44.8%
Share Repurchases (Buybacks)	—	$0	$0	$35.2M	$0	−100.0%	—
Dividends Paid	$11.6M	$10.4M	$11.9M	$20.1M	$20.9M	+4.2%	+15.9%

Fundamentals, income distribution and multi-year statements from SEC EDGAR filings (public domain). Valuation multiples, performance and technicals computed from Databento 1D EOD closes. For information only, not investment advice.

On the Wire

what HPK did at the next close after each story

No Wire story has named HPK yet.

What happened · big days

25 big days in a year, and what we hold on each

A big day is a close more than 9.19% from the one before, three times HPK’s median day (3.06%). On 5 of the 25, its peer group moved the same way at least half as far. We show what we hold. We never name a cause.

every other trading daya big day, numbered in the list below±9.19%Hover a bar for its day. Click a big day to open it.

Shaded: since our stories began, Jun 10. Tap a bar for its day.

#DayHPKWhat we hold that dayGroup (median of 4) · each

1 Nov 6, 2025−14.30%
Resultsgroup +0.2%, did not move with it
1Nov 6, 2025−14.30%
ResultsFirst close after the Nov 5 results filing
+0.2% did not move with itRIG 0.0 · PTEN 0.0 · NE +0.3 · VAL +1.8
2 Nov 7, 2025+11.15%
Before our storiesgroup +1.1%, did not move with it
2Nov 7, 2025+11.15%
Before our stories
+1.1% did not move with itRIG +2.0 · NE +1.6 · VAL +0.6 · PTEN +0.2
3 Dec 3, 2025−10.63%
Before our storiesgroup +5.9%, did not move with it
3Dec 3, 2025−10.63%
Before our stories
+5.9% did not move with itRIG +3.3 · PTEN +5.5 · VAL +6.2 · NE +8.1
4 Dec 29, 2025+9.84%
Before our storiesgroup +1.1%, did not move with it
4Dec 29, 2025+9.84%
Before our stories
+1.1% did not move with itPTEN +1.4 · RIG +1.2 · NE +1.0 · VAL +0.4
5 Jan 20, 2026−9.33%
Before our storiesgroup +0.6%, did not move with it
5Jan 20, 2026−9.33%
Before our stories
+0.6% did not move with itPTEN −0.8 · NE +0.6 · VAL +0.7 · RIG +1.6
6 Jan 27, 2026+9.62%
Before our storiesgroup +0.9%, did not move with it
6Jan 27, 2026+9.62%
Before our stories
+0.9% did not move with itPTEN +1.2 · RIG +1.0 · VAL +0.7 · NE +0.1
7 Feb 11, 2026+13.12%
Before our storiesgroup +7.7%, moved with HPK
7Feb 11, 2026+13.12%
Before our stories
+7.7% moved with HPKVAL +10.8 · RIG +10.3 · NE +5.1 · PTEN +3.6
8 Feb 12, 2026−12.17%
Before our storiesgroup −1.4%, did not move with it
8Feb 12, 2026−12.17%
Before our stories
−1.4% did not move with itPTEN −5.0 · NE −3.4 · RIG +0.5 · VAL +0.5
9 Feb 13, 2026+10.17%
Before our storiesgroup +7.8%, moved with HPK
9Feb 13, 2026+10.17%
Before our stories
+7.8% moved with HPKRIG +8.5 · VAL +8.0 · NE +7.6 · PTEN −0.5
10 Feb 18, 2026+9.62%
Before our storiesgroup +2.1%, did not move with it
10Feb 18, 2026+9.62%
Before our stories
+2.1% did not move with itPTEN +3.2 · VAL +2.3 · NE +1.8 · RIG +1.3
11 Mar 2, 2026+10.36%
Before our storiesgroup −1.1%, did not move with it
11Mar 2, 2026+10.36%
Before our stories
−1.1% did not move with itPTEN +3.6 · NE +1.2 · VAL −3.4 · RIG −3.5
12 Mar 31, 2026−9.33%
Before our storiesgroup −0.3%, did not move with it
12Mar 31, 2026−9.33%
Before our stories
−0.3% did not move with itPTEN −2.0 · VAL −0.4 · RIG −0.3 · NE +0.4
13 Apr 2, 2026+9.52%
Before our storiesgroup +2.1%, did not move with it
13Apr 2, 2026+9.52%
Before our stories
+2.1% did not move with itNE +2.8 · PTEN +2.5 · VAL +1.7 · RIG +1.4
14 Apr 8, 2026−10.58%
Before our storiesgroup −0.3%, did not move with it
14Apr 8, 2026−10.58%
Before our stories
−0.3% did not move with itPTEN −8.0 · NE −0.8 · VAL +0.3 · RIG +0.3
15 May 7, 2026−9.55%
Resultsgroup −1.2%, did not move with it
15May 7, 2026−9.55%
ResultsFirst close after the May 6 results filing
−1.2% did not move with itPTEN −1.5 · NE −1.2 · VAL −1.1 · RIG −1.0
16 May 12, 2026+15.41%
Before our storiesgroup +0.2%, did not move with it
16May 12, 2026+15.41%
Before our stories
+0.2% did not move with itPTEN +1.7 · NE +0.5 · VAL −0.1 · RIG −0.1
17 May 26, 2026−10.06%
Before our storiesgroup −4.3%, did not move with it
17May 26, 2026−10.06%
Before our stories
−4.3% did not move with itRIG −4.8 · VAL −4.8 · NE −3.8 · PTEN −1.5
18 Jun 10, 2026+11.14%
Nothing on HPKgroup +2.3%, did not move with it
18Jun 10, 2026+11.14%
Nothing on HPKNo HPK story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+2.3% did not move with itPTEN +3.7 · RIG +2.4 · NE +2.1 · VAL +1.7
19 Jul 8, 2026+12.39%
Nothing on HPKgroup +4.2%, did not move with it
19Jul 8, 2026+12.39%
Nothing on HPKNo HPK story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+4.2% did not move with itPTEN +6.0 · RIG +4.2 · VAL +4.2 · NE +3.0
20 Jul 27, 2026−11.50%
Nothing on HPKgroup −1.3%, did not move with it
20Jul 27, 2026−11.50%
Nothing on HPKNo HPK story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−1.3% did not move with itPTEN −7.8 · VAL −1.3 · RIG −1.3 · NE −0.3
21 Aug 10, 2026+10.00%
Nothing on HPKgroup +8.7%, moved with HPK
21Aug 10, 2026+10.00%
Nothing on HPKNo HPK story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+8.7% moved with HPKPTEN +11.3 · RIG +8.8 · VAL +8.6 · NE +6.8
22 Aug 12, 2026−12.71%
Nothing on HPKgroup −1.4%, did not move with it
22Aug 12, 2026−12.71%
Nothing on HPKNo HPK story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−1.4% did not move with itRIG −1.9 · VAL −1.8 · NE −0.9 · PTEN −0.4
23 Oct 9, 2026+9.39%
Nothing on HPKgroup −0.5%, did not move with it
23Oct 9, 2026+9.39%
Nothing on HPKNo HPK story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−0.5% did not move with itNE +0.5 · VAL −0.4 · RIG −0.5 · PTEN −1.5
24 Nov 2, 2026−14.92%
Nothing on HPKgroup −10.2%, moved with HPK
24Nov 2, 2026−14.92%
Nothing on HPKNo HPK story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−10.2% moved with HPKPTEN −11.4 · RIG −10.2 · VAL −10.1 · NE −7.2
25 Nov 4, 2026−12.34%
Nothing on HPKgroup −7.8%, moved with HPK
25Nov 4, 2026−12.34%
Nothing on HPKNo HPK story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−7.8% moved with HPKPTEN −9.4 · VAL −8.0 · RIG −7.6 · NE −6.7

A story on the same day is not a cause, and a group move is not proof either. Group: the median of NE, RIG, VAL and PTEN that day, the largest companies in HPK’s SEC industry; “moved with HPK” means the same direction and at least half the size.

What’s next · results

Before the next report: what the first day after the last four did

Six trading days after each results filing (SEC 8-K, Item 2.02). HPK reports after the close, so day 1 is the next close. 1 of 4 times, day 6 ended on the same side as day 1.

Reported Nov 5, 2025

day 1−14.30%day 6−3.76%

Reported Mar 11, 2026

day 1−2.74%day 6+16.58%

Reported May 6, 2026

day 1−9.55%day 6+9.87%

Reported Aug 10, 2026

day 1+4.29%day 6−0.88%

Next report: expected early NovemberEstimated from the dates of its last four results filings. Not announced. Since the Aug 10 report: −4.48%. Four reports is a small sample.

Every report since 2023 →

Each line is HPK’s close against its close before the filing, on licensed end-of-day closes. What happened after each report, not a forecast; a move on the day is not a cause.

Same industry

HPK against four same-industry peers, a year at 100

HPK is up 29.8% in a year. Patterson Uti Energy is up 75.2%, Valaris 52.1%, Noble 40.4% and Transocean 36.9%. All four did more. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, on a log scale, so the same percentage move is the same height on every line.

Share this chart

HPK +29.8%. Patterson Uti Energy +75.2%, Valaris +52.1%, Noble +40.4%, Transocean +36.9%. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, log scale.

Share this chart

End-of-day closes (Databento EOD), the last close of each week. The four peers are the largest US-listed companies by market value in HPK’s SEC industry (Drilling Oil & Gas Wells) with a year of closes. It shows what the closes did; a move here is not a cause, a forecast or a call.

The Wire at 7 AM ET, free. Top stories with a bull and a bear case on each, every morning. No account needed.

NE	Noble	$6.6B	−2.80%
RIG	Transocean	$6.1B	−6.42%
VAL	Valaris	$5.7B	−6.58%
PTEN	Patterson Uti Energy	$4.1B	−6.57%
HP	Helmerich & Payne	$3.6B	−3.96%
SDRL	SEADRILL	$2.7B	−5.08%
NBR	Nabors Industries	$1.2B	−6.03%
BORR	Borr Drilling	$1.0B	−6.31%