Eli Lilly LLY

NYSE · Pharmaceutical Preparations · $1.33T

$1,364.73−3.76%Nov 5 close · Databento

Every report since 2023 →

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LLY Wire Story Reactions & EOD Technical StudyDaily closes (Databento EOD) pinned with every AlgoThesis Wire story (dot colour = next trading day close) and SEC filing

Nov 5, 2026CLOSE $1,364.731D −3.76%3M +10.78%SMA20 $1,293.22SMA50 $1,210.69RSI(14) 63.4

1,364.73

RSI (14, Wilder EOD) · 70 Overbought / 30 OversoldRSI 63.4

Data provided by Databento (end of day). Next close = the first close after a story against the close before it; official daily closes only, not a call, not advice.

After a story on LLY, the first close moved a median +0.22%. Up 2 of 3; over the next three trading days, a median +1.46%.

The numbers

fiscal 2025, as filed with the SEC · 66-metric EOD snapshot via Databento

Market cap$1.33T

Enterprise value$1,370B

Revenue$65.2B +44.7%

EPS, diluted$22.95 +96.0%

Modern Valuation (EOD)

Market Cap$1.33T

Enterprise Value$1,370B

EV / True FCF—

EV / FCF—

EV / Gross Profit—

EV / EBIT—

EV / Sales21.02

P / E (GAAP)64.67

P / FCF—

P / Oper. CF79.39

P / Book50.30

Owner & Cash Yields

True FCF Yield—

FCF Yield—

Owner Earn. Yield—

Earnings Yield1.5%

Shareholder Yield+0.7%

Buyback Yield0.3%

Dividend Yield0.46%

Dividend / sh$6.23

Payout Ratio26%

FCF / sh—

EPS (diluted)$22.95

Compounder & Returns

Rule of 40—

ROIC—

Cash ROIC (CROIC)—

GP / Assets—

ROE77.8%

ROA18.4%

Gross Margin—

Oper. Margin—

Net Margin31.7%

FCF Margin—

True FCF Margin—

Quality & Dilution

Cash Conversion—

Accrual Ratio+3.4%

SBC % of FCF—

SBC % of Rev1.0%

Reinvest. Rate43%

Sales Growth Y/Y+44.7%

Sales 3Y CAGR+31.7%

EPS Growth Y/Y+96.0%

FCF Growth Y/Y—

FCF 3Y CAGR—

Share Change Y/Y−0.5%

Balance Sheet & Scale

Revenue (FY)$65.2B

Gross Profit (FY)—

Oper. Income (FY)—

GAAP Net Income$20.6B

True FCF (ex-SBC)—

Cash & Equiv$7.3B

Total Debt$42.5B

Net Cash (Debt)$-35.2B

Net Cash % MCap−2.6%

Debt / FCF (yrs)—

Current Ratio1.58940.75M sh

Price & Technicals (EOD)

Perf Week−0.65%

Perf Month+14.81%

Perf Quarter+15.10%

Perf Half Y+39.98%

Perf YTD+48.36%

SMA 20 Dist+5.53%$1,293.22

SMA 50 Dist+12.72%$1,210.69

SMA 100 Dist+13.95%$1,197.61

Window High−3.76%$1,417.99

Window Low+60.33%$851.21

RSI (14) · Vol63.438%v

Income Distribution & Cash Flow ConversionHow every dollar of LLY revenue flows through cost of goods, operating expenses, taxes, GAAP net income, and dilution-adjusted free cash flow

Where Every $100 of Revenue Goes (FY2025)

Cost of Revenue (COGS)$11.1B ($17.0 / $100)

R&D Reinvestment$7.2B ($11.0 / $100)

SG&A & Other OpEx$11.1B ($17.0 / $100)

Tax & Non-Operating$33.5B ($51.4 / $100)

Net Profit Kept$20.6B ($3.6 / $100)

Earnings Quality: GAAP Profit → True Owner Cash (FY2025)

GAAP Net Income$20.6B (31.7% margin)

Operating Cash Flow (OCF)$16.8B(25.8% of rev)

Less: Capital Expenditures—

Standard Free Cash Flow (FCF)—

Less: Stock-Based Comp (SBC)−$626.0M

True FCF (Owner Cash ex-SBC)—

Revenue by fiscal year

Operating leverage — margins

GrossOperatingNet

Line Item (USD)	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	YoY Δ	4Y CAGR
Income Statement
Revenue	$28.3B	$28.5B	$34.1B	$45.0B	$65.2B	+44.7%	+23.2%
Cost of Revenue (COGS)	$7.3B	$6.6B	$7.1B	$8.4B	$11.1B	+31.3%	+10.9%
Research & Development (R&D)	$6.9B	$7.2B	—	—	$7.2B	—	+0.9%
Selling, General & Admin (SG&A)	$6.4B	$6.4B	$7.4B	$8.6B	$11.1B	+29.1%	+14.6%
Interest Expense	$339.8M	$331.6M	$485.9M	$781.0M	$895.0M	+14.6%	+27.4%
Income Tax Expense	$573.8M	$561.6M	$1.3B	$2.1B	$5.1B	+143.6%	+72.6%
GAAP Net Income	$5.6B	$6.2B	$5.2B	$10.6B	$20.6B	+94.9%	+38.7%
Diluted EPS	$6.12	$6.90	$5.80	$11.71	$22.95	+96.0%	+39.2%
Diluted Shares	911.7M	904.6M	903.3M	904.1M	899.3M	−0.5%	−0.3%
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalents	$3.8B	$2.1B	$2.8B	$3.3B	$7.3B	+122.4%	+17.5%
Inventory	$3.9B	$4.3B	$5.8B	$7.6B	$13.7B	+81.1%	+37.1%
Total Current Assets	$18.5B	$18.0B	$25.7B	$32.7B	$55.6B	+69.9%	+31.8%
Total Assets	$48.8B	$49.5B	$64.0B	$78.7B	$112.5B	+42.9%	+23.2%
Total Current Liabilities	$15.1B	$17.1B	$27.3B	$28.4B	$35.2B	+24.1%	+23.7%
Total Debt (Short + Long Term)	$18.3B	$16.3B	$26.0B	$34.6B	$42.5B	+22.9%	+23.5%
Stockholders' Equity	$9.2B	$10.8B	$10.9B	$14.3B	$26.5B	+85.9%	+30.5%
Net Cash / (Net Debt)	$-14.5B	$-14.2B	$-23.2B	$-31.3B	$-35.2B	−12.5%	—
Invested Capital	$23.6B	$25.0B	$34.1B	$45.6B	$61.8B	+35.5%	+27.2%
Cash Flow & Capital Allocation
Operating Cash Flow (OCF)	$7.4B	$7.6B	$4.2B	$8.8B	$16.8B	+90.7%	+22.9%
Depreciation & Amortization (D&A)	$1.5B	$1.5B	$1.5B	$1.8B	$2.0B	+13.0%	+6.6%
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)	$342.8M	$371.1M	$629.0M	$646.0M	$626.0M	−3.1%	+16.2%
Share Repurchases (Buybacks)	$1.3B	$1.5B	$750.0M	$2.5B	$4.1B	+64.3%	+34.6%
Dividends Paid	$3.1B	$3.5B	$4.1B	$4.7B	$5.4B	+15.0%	+14.9%

Fundamentals, income distribution and multi-year statements from SEC EDGAR filings (public domain). Valuation multiples, performance and technicals computed from Databento 1D EOD closes. For information only, not investment advice.

On the Wire

what LLY did at the next close after each story

Oct 26

US judge lets Eli Lilly keep weight-loss ads in Novo Nordisk case

Investing.com · 6:24 PM ET

+0.22%

Oct 1

Lilly combo cuts diabetic patients’ weight by up to 23% in 48 weeks

ZeroHedge · 8:00 AM ET

−0.62%

Sep 21

Novo Nordisk shares slide 7.7% as turnaround plans face analyst doubt

ZeroHedge · 6:55 AM ET

+1.04%

The record, by topic

last 90 days · stories · median first close

consumer2−0.20%

earnings1+1.04%

What happened · big days

17 big days in a year, and what we hold on each

A big day is a close more than 3.77% from the one before, three times LLY’s median day (1.26%). On 1 of the 17, its peer group moved the same way at least half as far. We show what we hold. We never name a cause.

every other trading daya big day, numbered in the list below±3.77%Hover a bar for its day. Click a big day to open it.

Shaded: since our stories began, Jun 10. Tap a bar for its day.

#DayLLYWhat we hold that dayGroup (median of 4) · each

1 Nov 10, 2025+4.57%
Before our storiesgroup +0.2%, did not move with it
1Nov 10, 2025+4.57%
Before our stories
+0.2% did not move with itJNJ +1.0 · MRK +0.5 · ABBV −0.2 · ABT −0.4
2 Jan 7, 2026+4.14%
Before our storiesgroup +0.5%, did not move with it
2Jan 7, 2026+4.14%
Before our stories
+0.5% did not move with itABBV +4.2 · JNJ +1.3 · MRK −0.3 · ABT −0.6
3 Feb 3, 2026−3.90%
Before our storiesgroup +0.5%, did not move with it
3Feb 3, 2026−3.90%
Before our stories
+0.5% did not move with itABT −0.4 · ABBV +0.0 · JNJ +1.0 · MRK +2.2
4 Feb 4, 2026+10.33%
Resultsgroup −0.1%, did not move with it
4Feb 4, 2026+10.33%
ResultsFirst close after the Feb 4 results filing
−0.1% did not move with itMRK +2.1 · JNJ +0.6 · ABT −0.8 · ABBV −3.8
5 Feb 5, 2026−7.79%
Before our storiesgroup +1.0%, did not move with it
5Feb 5, 2026−7.79%
Before our stories
+1.0% did not move with itABT +0.8 · ABBV +0.9 · MRK +1.2 · JNJ +1.4
6 Feb 23, 2026+4.86%
Before our storiesgroup +1.7%, did not move with it
6Feb 23, 2026+4.86%
Before our stories
+1.7% did not move with itABT +2.7 · ABBV +2.1 · JNJ +1.4 · MRK +1.3
7 Mar 17, 2026−5.94%
Before our storiesgroup −0.2%, did not move with it
7Mar 17, 2026−5.94%
Before our stories
−0.2% did not move with itJNJ −2.1 · ABBV −0.8 · MRK +0.4 · ABT +0.7
8 Apr 1, 2026+3.78%
Before our storiesgroup −0.2%, did not move with it
8Apr 1, 2026+3.78%
Before our stories
−0.2% did not move with itMRK +0.5 · JNJ −0.1 · ABT −0.3 · ABBV −1.1
9 Apr 30, 2026+9.80%
Resultsgroup +0.3%, did not move with it
9Apr 30, 2026+9.80%
ResultsFirst close after the Apr 30 results filing
+0.3% did not move with itABBV +3.6 · JNJ +1.1 · ABT −0.6 · MRK −1.6
10 May 28, 2026+4.05%
Before our storiesgroup +0.3%, did not move with it
10May 28, 2026+4.05%
Before our stories
+0.3% did not move with itABBV +1.5 · ABT +0.7 · JNJ −0.2 · MRK −0.3
11 Jun 4, 2026+4.31%
Before our storiesgroup +4.0%, moved with LLY
11Jun 4, 2026+4.31%
Before our stories
+4.0% moved with LLYMRK +4.8 · ABT +4.4 · ABBV +3.6 · JNJ +2.2
12 Jun 26, 2026+7.13%
Nothing on LLYgroup +3.3%, did not move with it
12Jun 26, 2026+7.13%
Nothing on LLYNo LLY story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+3.3% did not move with itABBV +4.2 · JNJ +4.0 · MRK +2.6 · ABT +0.9
13 Jul 30, 2026−4.55%
Nothing on LLYgroup −2.2%, did not move with it
13Jul 30, 2026−4.55%
Nothing on LLYNo LLY story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−2.2% did not move with itJNJ −3.7 · ABBV −2.2 · ABT −2.2 · MRK −0.4
14 Aug 5, 2026+4.86%
Resultsgroup +0.6%, did not move with it
14Aug 5, 2026+4.86%
ResultsFirst close after the Aug 5 results filing
+0.6% did not move with itJNJ +1.0 · ABBV +1.0 · MRK +0.3 · ABT +0.2
15 Aug 10, 2026+3.90%
Nothing on LLYgroup +0.9%, did not move with it
15Aug 10, 2026+3.90%
Nothing on LLYNo LLY story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+0.9% did not move with itMRK +1.8 · JNJ +1.0 · ABBV +0.8 · ABT +0.8
16 Aug 19, 2026+4.46%
Nothing on LLYgroup +2.1%, did not move with it
16Aug 19, 2026+4.46%
Nothing on LLYNo LLY story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+2.1% did not move with itMRK +12.6 · ABBV +2.7 · ABT +1.6 · JNJ +0.8
17 Oct 29, 2026+6.63%
Resultsgroup +1.8%, did not move with it
17Oct 29, 2026+6.63%
ResultsFirst close after the Oct 29 results filing
+1.8% did not move with itMRK +3.8 · ABT +1.9 · ABBV +1.7 · JNJ +1.5

A story on the same day is not a cause, and a group move is not proof either. Group: the median of JNJ, ABBV, MRK and ABT that day, the largest companies in LLY’s SEC industry; “moved with LLY” means the same direction and at least half the size.

What’s next · results

Before the next report: what the first day after the last four did

Six trading days after each results filing (SEC 8-K, Item 2.02). LLY reports before the open, so day 1 is that day’s close. Each time, day 6 ended on the same side as day 1.

Reported Oct 30, 2025

day 1+3.81%day 6+15.23%

Reported Feb 4, 2026

day 1+10.33%day 6+1.17%

Reported Apr 30, 2026

day 1+9.80%day 6+14.54%

Reported Aug 5, 2026

day 1+4.86%day 6+9.38%

Next report: expected late January to early FebruaryEstimated from the dates of its last four results filings. Not announced. Since the Oct 29 report: +10.07%. Four reports is a small sample.

Every report since 2023 →

Each line is LLY’s close against its close before the filing, on licensed end-of-day closes. What happened after each report, not a forecast; a move on the day is not a cause.

Same industry

LLY against four drug peers, a year at 100

LLY is up 53.4% in a year. Merck is up 74.3%. Of these four, Johnson & Johnson (+48.1%), AbbVie (+34.5%) and Abbott (−10.1%) did less. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, on a log scale, so the same percentage move is the same height on every line.

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LLY +53.4%. Merck +74.3%, Johnson & Johnson +48.1%, AbbVie +34.5%, Abbott −10.1%. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, log scale.

Share this chart

End-of-day closes (Databento EOD), the last close of each week. The four peers are the largest US-listed companies by market value in LLY’s SEC industry (Pharmaceutical Preparations) with a year of closes. It shows what the closes did; a move here is not a cause, a forecast or a call.

The Wire at 7 AM ET, free. Top stories with a bull and a bear case on each, every morning. No account needed.

JNJ	Johnson & Johnson	$665.9B	−1.45%
ABBV	AbbVie	$521.0B	−2.24%
MRK	Merck	$371.0B	−2.27%
ABT	Abbott	$199.9B	−1.65%
PFE	Pfizer	$175.5B	−2.96%
VRTX	Vertex Pharmaceuticals	$139.2B	−1.19%
BMY	Bristol Myers Squibb	$131.1B	−1.65%
REGN	Regeneron Pharmaceuticals	$101.1B	−2.98%