Moderna MRNA

Nasdaq · Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) · $103.2B

$241.46−6.55%Nov 5 close · Databento

Every report since 2023 →

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MRNA Wire Story Reactions & EOD Technical StudyDaily closes (Databento EOD) pinned with every AlgoThesis Wire story (dot colour = next trading day close) and SEC filing

Nov 5, 2026CLOSE $241.461D −6.55%3M +303.71%SMA20 $223.39SMA50 $189.62RSI(14) 60.4

241.46

RSI (14, Wilder EOD) · 70 Overbought / 30 OversoldRSI 60.4

Data provided by Databento (end of day). Next close = the first close after a story against the close before it; official daily closes only, not a call, not advice.

After a story on MRNA, the first close moved a median −3.35%. Up 0 of 3; over the next three trading days, a median +7.03%.

The numbers

fiscal 2025, as filed with the SEC · 66-metric EOD snapshot via Databento

Market cap$103.2B

Enterprise value$101.1B

Revenue$1.9B −39.9%

True FCF (ex-SBC)$-2.5B +49.1%

Rule of 40-146.1%

ROIC-47.2%

True FCF Yield-2.5%

EPS, diluted$-7.26 +21.8%

Modern Valuation (EOD)

Market Cap$103.2B

Enterprise Value$101.1B

EV / True FCF—

EV / FCF—

EV / Gross Profit—

EV / EBIT—

EV / Sales52.03

P / E (GAAP)—

P / FCF—

P / Oper. CF—

P / Book11.93

Owner & Cash Yields

True FCF Yield-2.5%

FCF Yield-2.0%

Owner Earn. Yield-3.2%

Earnings Yield-2.7%

Shareholder Yield−0.5%

Buyback Yield0.0%

Dividend Yield—

Dividend / sh—

Payout Ratio—

FCF / sh$-5.17

EPS (diluted)$-7.26

Compounder & Returns

Rule of 40-146.1%

ROIC-47.2%

Cash ROIC (CROIC)-31.1%

GP / Assets—

ROE-32.6%

ROA-22.9%

Gross Margin—

Oper. Margin-158.1%

Net Margin-145.2%

FCF Margin-106.2%

True FCF Margin-131.1%

Quality & Dilution

Cash Conversion—

Accrual Ratio−7.7%

SBC % of FCF—

SBC % of Rev24.8%

Reinvest. Rate—

Sales Growth Y/Y−39.9%

Sales 3Y CAGR−53.4%

EPS Growth Y/Y+21.8%

FCF Growth Y/Y+49.1%

FCF 3Y CAGR—

Share Change Y/Y+1.3%

Balance Sheet & Scale

Revenue (FY)$1.9B

Gross Profit (FY)—

Oper. Income (FY)$-3.1B

GAAP Net Income$-2.8B

True FCF (ex-SBC)$-2.5B

Cash & Equiv$2.6B

Total Debt$590.0M

Net Cash (Debt)$2.0B

Net Cash % MCap+1.9%

Debt / FCF (yrs)—

Current Ratio3.29399.24M sh

Price & Technicals (EOD)

Perf Week+8.39%

Perf Month+22.89%

Perf Quarter+308.08%

Perf Half Y+397.45%

Perf YTD+342.32%

SMA 20 Dist+8.09%$223.39

SMA 50 Dist+27.34%$189.62

SMA 100 Dist+83.52%$131.57

Window High−6.55%$258.38

Window Low+432.20%$45.37

RSI (14) · Vol60.4114%v

Income Distribution & Cash Flow ConversionHow every dollar of MRNA revenue flows through cost of goods, operating expenses, taxes, GAAP net income, and dilution-adjusted free cash flow

Where Every $100 of Revenue Goes (FY2025)

Cost of Revenue (COGS)$868.0M ($44.7 / $100)

R&D Reinvestment$3.1B ($100.0 / $100)

Operating Expenses$1.0B ($52.4 / $100)

Tax & Non-Operating$0 ($0.0 / $100)

Net Profit Kept$-2.8B ($0.0 / $100)

Earnings Quality: GAAP Profit → True Owner Cash (FY2025)

GAAP Net Income$-2.8B (-145.2% margin)

Operating Cash Flow (OCF)$-1.9B(-96.3% of rev)

Less: Capital Expenditures−$192.0M(9.9% of rev)

Standard Free Cash Flow (FCF)$-2.1B(-106.2% margin)

Less: Stock-Based Comp (SBC)−$483.0M

True FCF (Owner Cash ex-SBC)$-2.5B(-131.1% of rev)

Revenue by fiscal year

Operating leverage — margins

GrossOperatingNet

Line Item (USD)	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	YoY Δ	4Y CAGR
Income Statement
Revenue	$18.5B	$19.3B	$6.8B	$3.2B	$1.9B	−39.9%	−43.0%
Cost of Revenue (COGS)	$2.6B	$5.4B	$4.7B	$1.5B	$868.0M	−40.7%	−24.1%
Research & Development (R&D)	$2.0B	$3.3B	$4.8B	$4.5B	$3.1B	−31.1%	+12.0%
Operating Income (EBIT)	$13.3B	$9.4B	$-4.2B	$-3.9B	$-3.1B	+22.1%	—
Income Tax Expense	$1.1B	$1.2B	$772.0M	$-46.0M	$54.0M	+217.4%	−52.7%
GAAP Net Income	$12.2B	$8.4B	$-4.7B	$-3.6B	$-2.8B	+20.8%	—
Diluted EPS	$28.29	$20.12	$-12.33	$-9.28	$-7.26	+21.8%	—
Diluted Shares	431.0M	416.0M	382.0M	384.0M	389.0M	+1.3%	−2.5%
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalents	$6.9B	$3.2B	$2.9B	$1.9B	$2.6B	+34.6%	−21.6%
Inventory	$1.4B	$949.0M	$202.0M	$117.0M	$153.0M	+30.8%	−42.9%
Total Current Assets	$16.1B	$13.4B	$10.3B	$8.1B	$6.5B	−19.2%	−20.1%
Total Assets	$24.7B	$25.9B	$18.4B	$14.1B	$12.3B	−12.8%	−15.9%
Total Current Liabilities	$9.1B	$4.9B	$3.0B	$2.2B	$2.0B	−9.9%	−31.7%
Total Debt (Short + Long Term)	$591.0M	$591.0M	$591.0M	$0	$590.0M	—	−0.0%
Total Liabilities	$10.5B	$6.7B	$4.6B	$3.2B	$3.7B	+13.8%	−23.1%
Stockholders' Equity	$14.1B	$19.1B	$13.9B	$10.9B	$8.7B	−20.6%	−11.6%
Net Cash / (Net Debt)	$6.3B	$2.6B	$2.3B	$1.9B	$2.0B	+4.0%	−24.8%
Invested Capital	$7.9B	$16.5B	$11.5B	$9.0B	$6.6B	−26.0%	−4.2%
Cash Flow & Capital Allocation
Operating Cash Flow (OCF)	$13.6B	$5.0B	$-3.1B	$-3.0B	$-1.9B	+37.6%	—
Depreciation & Amortization (D&A)	$232.0M	$348.0M	$617.0M	$185.0M	$211.0M	+14.1%	−2.3%
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)	$142.0M	$226.0M	$305.0M	$429.0M	$483.0M	+12.6%	+35.8%
Capital Expenditures (CapEx)	$284.0M	$400.0M	$707.0M	$1.1B	$192.0M	−81.7%	−9.3%
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	$13.3B	$4.6B	$-3.8B	$-4.1B	$-2.1B	+49.1%	—
True FCF (ex-SBC Owner Cash)	$13.2B	$4.4B	$-4.1B	$-4.5B	$-2.5B	+43.2%	—
Share Repurchases (Buybacks)	$857.0M	$3.3B	$1.2B	$0	$2.0M	—	−78.0%

Fundamentals, income distribution and multi-year statements from SEC EDGAR filings (public domain). Valuation multiples, performance and technicals computed from Databento 1D EOD closes. For information only, not investment advice.

On the Wire

what MRNA did at the next close after each story

Nov 6

Moderna swings to profit as cancer-vaccine momentum gathers pace

Financial Times · 6:45 AM ET

next close pending

Oct 22

Moderna cancer vaccine cuts melanoma recurrence or death by 42%

MarketWatch · 4:14 PM ET

−1.25%

Aug 28

Moderna (MRNA), Merck (MRK) Cancer Vaccine Wins in Late-Stage Trial

Yahoo Finance · 12:16 PM ET

−3.35%

Aug 23

Moderna shares surge 179% on melanoma therapy; revenue fell 39.9% to $1.9B

Yahoo Finance · 2:23 AM ET

−4.30%

Jul 10

Moderna revenue fell 39.9% to $1.9B in FY with -145.2% net margin

Yahoo Finance · 4:44 PM ET

—

The record, by topic

last 90 days · stories · median first close

consumer2−3.82%

earnings1−1.25%

What happened · big days

22 big days in a year, and what we hold on each

A big day is a close more than 8.06% from the one before, three times MRNA’s median day (2.69%). On 0 of the 22, its peer group moved the same way at least half as far. We show what we hold. We never name a cause.

every other trading daya big day, numbered in the list below±8.06%Hover a bar for its day. Click a big day to open it.

Shaded: since our stories began, Jun 10. Tap a bar for its day.

#DayMRNAWhat we hold that dayGroup (median of 4) · each

1 Dec 5, 2025+8.67%
Before our storiesgroup −0.8%, did not move with it
1Dec 5, 2025+8.67%
Before our stories
−0.8% did not move with itEXEL −0.0 · BIIB −0.4 · GILD −1.1 · AMGN −3.0
2 Dec 19, 2025+9.21%
Before our storiesgroup +2.6%, did not move with it
2Dec 19, 2025+9.21%
Before our stories
+2.6% did not move with itEXEL +4.1 · BIIB +2.9 · GILD +2.3 · AMGN +0.9
3 Jan 6, 2026+10.85%
Before our storiesgroup +3.0%, did not move with it
3Jan 6, 2026+10.85%
Before our stories
+3.0% did not move with itBIIB +4.6 · EXEL +3.0 · AMGN +3.0 · GILD +2.6
4 Jan 13, 2026+17.02%
Before our storiesgroup −0.5%, did not move with it
4Jan 13, 2026+17.02%
Before our stories
−0.5% did not move with itEXEL +0.1 · AMGN −0.4 · GILD −0.7 · BIIB −4.0
5 Jan 21, 2026+15.84%
Before our storiesgroup +3.9%, did not move with it
5Jan 21, 2026+15.84%
Before our stories
+3.9% did not move with itBIIB +4.4 · GILD +4.0 · AMGN +3.8 · EXEL +2.4
6 Mar 4, 2026+15.99%
Before our storiesgroup +1.5%, did not move with it
6Mar 4, 2026+15.99%
Before our stories
+1.5% did not move with itBIIB +3.2 · EXEL +2.3 · AMGN +0.6 · GILD +0.3
7 May 8, 2026+11.97%
Before our storiesgroup +0.9%, did not move with it
7May 8, 2026+11.97%
Before our stories
+0.9% did not move with itEXEL +4.2 · BIIB +1.1 · AMGN +0.8 · GILD −2.0
8 Jun 17, 2026+11.55%
Nothing on MRNAgroup −0.4%, did not move with it
8Jun 17, 2026+11.55%
Nothing on MRNANo MRNA story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−0.4% did not move with itBIIB +1.6 · EXEL +0.7 · GILD −1.4 · AMGN −1.8
9 Jun 26, 2026+12.59%
Nothing on MRNAgroup +3.1%, did not move with it
9Jun 26, 2026+12.59%
Nothing on MRNANo MRNA story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+3.1% did not move with itBIIB +7.0 · GILD +3.3 · EXEL +2.9 · AMGN +1.6
10 Jul 2, 2026+10.01%
Nothing on MRNAgroup +3.5%, did not move with it
10Jul 2, 2026+10.01%
Nothing on MRNANo MRNA story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+3.5% did not move with itGILD +4.2 · AMGN +3.5 · EXEL +3.5 · BIIB +3.0
11 Jul 10, 2026−10.83%
Nothing on MRNAgroup −0.6%, did not move with it
11Jul 10, 2026−10.83%
Nothing on MRNANo MRNA story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−0.6% did not move with itGILD −3.7 · EXEL −1.1 · AMGN −0.1 · BIIB +0.1
12 Aug 7, 2026+9.86%
Nothing on MRNAgroup +1.7%, did not move with it
12Aug 7, 2026+9.86%
Nothing on MRNANo MRNA story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+1.7% did not move with itEXEL +3.6 · GILD +1.8 · AMGN +1.5 · BIIB +0.8
13 Aug 19, 2026+176.97%
Nothing on MRNAgroup +3.5%, did not move with it
13Aug 19, 2026+176.97%
Nothing on MRNANo MRNA story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+3.5% did not move with itBIIB +4.2 · AMGN +4.0 · GILD +2.9 · EXEL +2.4
14 Aug 20, 2026−23.55%
Nothing on MRNAgroup −2.4%, did not move with it
14Aug 20, 2026−23.55%
Nothing on MRNANo MRNA story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−2.4% did not move with itBIIB −3.3 · GILD −2.8 · AMGN −1.9 · EXEL −1.3
15 Aug 21, 2026+8.86%
Nothing on MRNAgroup +1.2%, did not move with it
15Aug 21, 2026+8.86%
Nothing on MRNANo MRNA story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+1.2% did not move with itGILD +1.9 · AMGN +1.3 · BIIB +1.1 · EXEL +0.7
16 Aug 25, 2026+14.36%
Nothing on MRNAgroup +1.3%, did not move with it
16Aug 25, 2026+14.36%
Nothing on MRNANo MRNA story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+1.3% did not move with itEXEL +4.0 · GILD +1.4 · BIIB +1.2 · AMGN −0.4
17 Sep 1, 2026+9.93%
Nothing on MRNAgroup +2.2%, did not move with it
17Sep 1, 2026+9.93%
Nothing on MRNANo MRNA story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+2.2% did not move with itEXEL +4.1 · GILD +2.5 · AMGN +1.9 · BIIB −0.3
18 Sep 17, 2026+8.55%
Nothing on MRNAgroup +1.8%, did not move with it
18Sep 17, 2026+8.55%
Nothing on MRNANo MRNA story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+1.8% did not move with itEXEL +3.0 · GILD +2.2 · BIIB +1.4 · AMGN +0.9
19 Sep 21, 2026+12.27%
Nothing on MRNAgroup +1.0%, did not move with it
19Sep 21, 2026+12.27%
Nothing on MRNANo MRNA story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+1.0% did not move with itAMGN +1.9 · BIIB +1.7 · GILD +0.3 · EXEL −1.9
20 Oct 9, 2026+14.21%
Nothing on MRNAgroup +2.3%, did not move with it
20Oct 9, 2026+14.21%
Nothing on MRNANo MRNA story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+2.3% did not move with itBIIB +3.3 · GILD +2.8 · AMGN +1.8 · EXEL +1.4
21 Oct 22, 2026−17.57%
Nothing on MRNAgroup +2.2%, did not move with it
21Oct 22, 2026−17.57%
Nothing on MRNANo MRNA story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+2.2% did not move with itEXEL +1.1 · AMGN +2.0 · GILD +2.4 · BIIB +5.3
22 Nov 4, 2026+13.11%
Nothing on MRNAgroup +3.0%, did not move with it
22Nov 4, 2026+13.11%
Nothing on MRNANo MRNA story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+3.0% did not move with itGILD +4.2 · AMGN +3.7 · BIIB +2.2 · EXEL +0.6

A story on the same day is not a cause, and a group move is not proof either. Group: the median of AMGN, GILD, BIIB and EXEL that day, the largest companies in MRNA’s SEC industry; “moved with MRNA” means the same direction and at least half the size.

What’s next · results

Before the next report: what the first day after the last four did

Six trading days after each results filing (SEC 8-K, Item 2.02). MRNA reports before the open, so day 1 is that day’s close. 2 of 4 times, day 6 ended on the same side as day 1.

Reported Nov 6, 2025

day 1+3.27%day 6+5.94%

Reported Feb 13, 2026

day 1+5.29%day 6+25.38%

Reported May 1, 2026

day 1−1.24%day 6+18.31%

Reported Jul 31, 2026

day 1−5.35%day 6+2.16%

Next report: expected early-to-mid FebruaryEstimated from the dates of its last four results filings. Not announced. Four reports is a small sample.

Every report since 2023 →

Each line is MRNA’s close against its close before the filing, on licensed end-of-day closes. What happened after each report, not a forecast; a move on the day is not a cause.

Same industry

MRNA against four biotech peers, a year at 100

MRNA is up 10.5 times in a year. All four did less: Exelixis (+78.3%), Biogen (+63.6%), Amgen (+49.4%) and Gilead Sciences (+46.8%). Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, on a log scale so a 10.5-fold rise and a 46.8% rise both read honestly.

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MRNA ×10.5. Exelixis +78.3%, Biogen +63.6%, Amgen +49.4%, Gilead Sciences +46.8%. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, log scale.

Share this chart

End-of-day closes (Databento EOD), the last close of each week. The four peers are the largest US-listed companies by market value in MRNA’s SEC industry (Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances)) with a year of closes. It shows what the closes did; a move here is not a cause, a forecast or a call.

The Wire at 7 AM ET, free. Top stories with a bull and a bear case on each, every morning. No account needed.

AMGN	Amgen	$258.7B	−3.80%
GILD	Gilead Sciences	$216.3B	−3.96%
BIIB	Biogen	$37.6B	−4.14%
EXEL	Exelixis	$18.0B	−5.55%
NBIX	Neurocrine Biosciences	$16.9B	−3.79%
HALO	Halozyme Therapeutics	$14.8B	−5.66%
TECH	BIO-TECHNE	$11.4B	−0.10%
KYMR	Kymera Therapeutics	$11.3B	−5.97%