Nucor NUE

NYSE · Steel Works, Blast Furnaces & Rolling Mills (Coke Ovens) · $60.8B

$245.68−8.30%Nov 5 close · Databento

Every report since 2023 →

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NUE Wire Story Reactions & EOD Technical StudyDaily closes (Databento EOD) pinned with every AlgoThesis Wire story (dot colour = next trading day close) and SEC filing

Nov 5, 2026CLOSE $245.681D −8.30%3M −10.53%SMA20 $262.04SMA50 $255.32RSI(14) 38.6

245.68

RSI (14, Wilder EOD) · 70 Overbought / 30 OversoldRSI 38.6

Data provided by Databento (end of day). Next close = the first close after a story against the close before it; official daily closes only, not a call, not advice.

After a story on NUE, the first close moved a median +0.41%. Up 2 of 3; over the next three trading days, a median +1.14%.

The numbers

fiscal 2025, as filed with the SEC · 66-metric EOD snapshot via Databento

Market cap$60.8B

Enterprise value$62.8B

Revenue$32.5B +5.7%

True FCF (ex-SBC)$-321.0M −123.3%

Rule of 405.1%

True FCF Yield-0.5%

EPS, diluted$7.52 −11.1%

Modern Valuation (EOD)

Market Cap$60.8B

Enterprise Value$62.8B

EV / True FCF—

EV / FCF—

EV / Gross Profit—

EV / EBIT—

EV / Sales1.93

P / E (GAAP)34.85

P / FCF—

P / Oper. CF18.79

P / Book2.75

Owner & Cash Yields

True FCF Yield-0.5%

FCF Yield-0.3%

Owner Earn. Yield-1.0%

Earnings Yield2.9%

Shareholder Yield+1.8%

Buyback Yield1.2%

Dividend Yield0.90%

Dividend / sh$2.21

Payout Ratio29%

FCF / sh$-0.83

EPS (diluted)$7.52

Compounder & Returns

Rule of 405.1%

ROIC—

Cash ROIC (CROIC)-0.8%

GP / Assets—

ROE7.9%

ROA5.0%

Gross Margin—

Oper. Margin—

Net Margin5.4%

FCF Margin-0.6%

True FCF Margin-1.0%

Quality & Dilution

Cash Conversion-11%

Accrual Ratio−4.2%

SBC % of FCF—

SBC % of Rev0.4%

Reinvest. Rate106%

Sales Growth Y/Y+5.7%

Sales 3Y CAGR−7.8%

EPS Growth Y/Y−11.1%

FCF Growth Y/Y−123.3%

FCF 3Y CAGR—

Share Change Y/Y−3.1%

Balance Sheet & Scale

Revenue (FY)$32.5B

Gross Profit (FY)—

Oper. Income (FY)—

GAAP Net Income$1.7B

True FCF (ex-SBC)$-321.0M

Cash & Equiv$2.3B

Total Debt$4.3B

Net Cash (Debt)$-2.0B

Net Cash % MCap−3.4%

Debt / FCF (yrs)—

Current Ratio2.94226.88M sh

Price & Technicals (EOD)

Perf Week−10.76%

Perf Month−0.31%

Perf Quarter−9.89%

Perf Half Y+8.37%

Perf YTD+21.47%

SMA 20 Dist−6.24%$262.04

SMA 50 Dist−3.77%$255.32

SMA 100 Dist−2.24%$251.31

Window High−11.51%$277.65

Window Low+21.47%$202.26

RSI (14) · Vol38.641%v

Income Distribution & Cash Flow ConversionHow every dollar of NUE revenue flows through cost of goods, operating expenses, taxes, GAAP net income, and dilution-adjusted free cash flow

Where Every $100 of Revenue Goes (FY2025)

Cost of Revenue (COGS)$28.6B ($88.1 / $100)

SG&A & Other OpEx$1.2B ($3.8 / $100)

Tax & Non-Operating$2.1B ($6.6 / $100)

Net Profit Kept$1.7B ($1.6 / $100)

Earnings Quality: GAAP Profit → True Owner Cash (FY2025)

GAAP Net Income$1.7B (5.4% margin)

Operating Cash Flow (OCF)$3.2B(10.0% of rev)

Less: Capital Expenditures−$3.4B(10.5% of rev)

Standard Free Cash Flow (FCF)$-188.0M(-0.6% margin)

Less: Stock-Based Comp (SBC)−$133.0M

True FCF (Owner Cash ex-SBC)$-321.0M(-1.0% of rev)

Revenue by fiscal year

Operating leverage — margins

GrossOperatingNet

Line Item (USD)	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	YoY Δ	4Y CAGR
Income Statement
Revenue	$36.5B	$41.5B	$34.7B	$30.7B	$32.5B	+5.7%	−2.9%
Cost of Revenue (COGS)	$25.5B	$29.0B	$26.9B	$26.6B	$28.6B	+7.4%	+3.0%
Selling, General & Admin (SG&A)	$1.7B	$2.0B	$1.6B	$1.1B	$1.2B	+8.5%	−8.1%
Interest Expense	$163.1M	$219.0M	$246.0M	$228.0M	$170.0M	−25.4%	+1.0%
Income Tax Expense	$2.1B	$2.2B	$1.4B	$583.0M	$530.0M	−9.1%	−28.9%
GAAP Net Income	$6.8B	$7.6B	$4.5B	$2.0B	$1.7B	−14.0%	−28.9%
Diluted EPS	$23.16	$28.79	$18.00	$8.46	$7.52	−11.1%	−24.5%
Diluted Shares	293.4M	263.2M	250.4M	238.5M	231.0M	−3.1%	−5.8%
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalents	$2.4B	$4.3B	$6.4B	$3.6B	$2.3B	−36.5%	−1.1%
Inventory	$6.0B	$5.5B	$5.6B	$5.1B	$5.5B	+7.0%	−2.4%
Total Current Assets	$12.8B	$14.7B	$16.4B	$12.5B	$11.8B	−5.7%	−2.1%
Total Assets	$25.8B	$32.5B	$35.3B	$33.9B	$35.1B	+3.4%	+8.0%
Total Current Liabilities	$5.2B	$4.3B	$4.6B	$5.0B	$4.0B	−19.5%	−6.1%
Total Debt (Short + Long Term)	$4.8B	$4.2B	$4.3B	$5.3B	$4.3B	−18.2%	−2.9%
Total Liabilities	$11.2B	$12.9B	$13.2B	$12.5B	$13.0B	+3.6%	+3.7%
Stockholders' Equity	$14.6B	$19.6B	$22.1B	$21.4B	$22.1B	+3.3%	+10.9%
Net Cash / (Net Debt)	$-2.5B	$36.5M	$2.1B	$-1.7B	$-2.0B	−19.9%	—
Invested Capital	$17.1B	$19.5B	$20.0B	$23.1B	$24.2B	+4.5%	+9.1%
Cash Flow & Capital Allocation
Operating Cash Flow (OCF)	$6.2B	$10.1B	$7.1B	$4.0B	$3.2B	−18.7%	−15.1%
Depreciation & Amortization (D&A)	$735.4M	$827.0M	$931.0M	$1.1B	$1.2B	+12.1%	+13.6%
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)	$135.8M	$137.0M	$130.0M	$132.0M	$133.0M	+0.8%	−0.5%
Capital Expenditures (CapEx)	$1.6B	$1.9B	$2.2B	$3.2B	$3.4B	+7.8%	+20.5%
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	$4.6B	$8.1B	$4.9B	$806.0M	$-188.0M	−123.3%	—
True FCF (ex-SBC Owner Cash)	$4.5B	$8.0B	$4.8B	$674.0M	$-321.0M	−147.6%	—
Share Repurchases (Buybacks)	$3.3B	$2.8B	$1.6B	$2.2B	$700.0M	−68.4%	−32.0%
Dividends Paid	$483.5M	$534.0M	$515.0M	$522.0M	$512.0M	−1.9%	+1.4%

Fundamentals, income distribution and multi-year statements from SEC EDGAR filings (public domain). Valuation multiples, performance and technicals computed from Databento 1D EOD closes. For information only, not investment advice.

On the Wire

what NUE did at the next close after each story

Oct 26

Nucor posts $1.32 billion in third-quarter earnings on $11.25 billion sales

PR Newswire · 4:30 PM ET

+5.22%

Sep 17

Nucor stock falls on weaker than expected third quarter guidance

Investing.com · 5:50 PM ET

−6.32%

Aug 22

Nucor and Steel Dynamics gain from collapsed Canada trade talks, tariff terms unclear

Yahoo Finance · 9:26 AM ET

+0.41%

The record, by topic

last 90 days · stories · median first close

earnings2−0.55%

regulation1+0.41%

What happened · big days

16 big days in a year, and what we hold on each

A big day is a close more than 3.64% from the one before, three times NUE’s median day (1.21%). On 11 of the 16, its peer group moved the same way at least half as far. We show what we hold. We never name a cause.

every other trading daya big day, numbered in the list below±3.64%Hover a bar for its day. Click a big day to open it.

Shaded: since our stories began, Jun 10. Tap a bar for its day.

#DayNUEWhat we hold that dayGroup (median of 4) · each

1 Dec 10, 2025+3.91%
Before our storiesgroup +2.5%, moved with NUE
1Dec 10, 2025+3.91%
Before our stories
+2.5% moved with NUECMC +5.1 · STLD +3.5 · SXC +1.6 · CRS +1.4
2 Jan 2, 2026+3.86%
Before our storiesgroup +3.8%, moved with NUE
2Jan 2, 2026+3.86%
Before our stories
+3.8% moved with NUECRS +7.5 · STLD +3.9 · CMC +3.7 · SXC +1.8
3 Jan 29, 2026+3.89%
Before our storiesgroup +2.7%, moved with NUE
3Jan 29, 2026+3.89%
Before our stories
+2.7% moved with NUESTLD +4.3 · CMC +3.9 · SXC +1.5 · CRS −6.4
4 Apr 8, 2026+5.14%
Before our storiesgroup +5.5%, moved with NUE
4Apr 8, 2026+5.14%
Before our stories
+5.5% moved with NUECRS +8.6 · STLD +5.8 · CMC +5.1 · SXC +0.6
5 Apr 28, 2026+4.70%
Resultsgroup +0.4%, did not move with it
5Apr 28, 2026+4.70%
ResultsFirst close after the Apr 27 results filing
+0.4% did not move with itSXC +2.4 · STLD +0.8 · CRS −0.1 · CMC −0.8
6 Jun 11, 2026+4.16%
Nothing on NUEgroup +4.9%, moved with NUE
6Jun 11, 2026+4.16%
Nothing on NUENo NUE story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+4.9% moved with NUECRS +7.5 · CMC +5.7 · STLD +4.2 · SXC +3.7
7 Jun 26, 2026−3.66%
Nothing on NUEgroup −1.7%, did not move with it
7Jun 26, 2026−3.66%
Nothing on NUENo NUE story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−1.7% did not move with itCMC −6.6 · STLD −2.2 · CRS −1.2 · SXC −0.2
8 Jun 29, 2026−4.67%
Nothing on NUEgroup −3.6%, moved with NUE
8Jun 29, 2026−4.67%
Nothing on NUENo NUE story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−3.6% moved with NUECMC −6.6 · STLD −4.6 · SXC −2.6 · CRS +2.6
9 Jul 28, 2026+7.17%
Resultsgroup +2.7%, did not move with it
9Jul 28, 2026+7.17%
ResultsFirst close after the Jul 27 results filing
+2.7% did not move with itSTLD +3.8 · CMC +3.6 · SXC +1.8 · CRS −3.4
10 Aug 4, 2026+4.88%
Nothing on NUEgroup +4.2%, moved with NUE
10Aug 4, 2026+4.88%
Nothing on NUENo NUE story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+4.2% moved with NUESXC +5.5 · CRS +4.9 · CMC +3.5 · STLD +2.6
11 Aug 19, 2026−5.85%
Nothing on NUEgroup −4.0%, moved with NUE
11Aug 19, 2026−5.85%
Nothing on NUENo NUE story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−4.0% moved with NUESTLD −7.5 · CRS −4.1 · CMC −4.0 · SXC +3.5
12 Sep 2, 2026+4.78%
Nothing on NUEgroup +3.3%, moved with NUE
12Sep 2, 2026+4.78%
Nothing on NUENo NUE story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+3.3% moved with NUESTLD +5.8 · SXC +3.5 · CMC +3.0 · CRS −2.6
13 Sep 18, 2026−6.32%
1 storygroup −2.8%, did not move with it
13Sep 18, 2026−6.32%
1 story “Nucor stock falls on weaker than expected third quarter guidance” · Investing.com
−2.8% did not move with itSTLD −4.1 · CMC −3.9 · SXC −1.8 · CRS +0.3
14 Oct 5, 2026+4.58%
Nothing on NUEgroup +2.0%, did not move with it
14Oct 5, 2026+4.58%
Nothing on NUENo NUE story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+2.0% did not move with itSTLD +3.9 · CMC +3.0 · CRS +1.0 · SXC +0.4
15 Oct 27, 2026+5.22%
Results · 1 storygroup +2.9%, moved with NUE
15Oct 27, 2026+5.22%
Results · 1 storyFirst close after the Oct 26 results filing
+2.9% moved with NUESXC +8.0 · STLD +3.9 · CMC +1.9 · CRS −0.3
16 Nov 5, 2026−8.30%
Nothing on NUEgroup −6.8%, moved with NUE
16Nov 5, 2026−8.30%
Nothing on NUENo NUE story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−6.8% moved with NUESTLD −7.6 · SXC −7.2 · CMC −6.4 · CRS −4.5

A story on the same day is not a cause, and a group move is not proof either. Group: the median of STLD, CRS, CMC and SXC that day, the largest companies in NUE’s SEC industry; “moved with NUE” means the same direction and at least half the size.

What’s next · results

Before the next report: what the first day after the last four did

Six trading days after each results filing (SEC 8-K, Item 2.02). NUE reports after the close, so day 1 is the next close. 3 of 4 times, day 6 ended on the same side as day 1.

Reported Jan 26, 2026

day 1−2.30%day 6+4.98%

Reported Apr 27, 2026

day 1+4.70%day 6+7.94%

Reported Jul 27, 2026

day 1+7.17%day 6+10.56%

Reported Oct 26, 2026

day 1+5.22%day 6+6.29%

Next report: expected late JanuaryEstimated from the dates of its last four results filings. Not announced. Since the Oct 26 report: −4.53%. Four reports is a small sample.

Every report since 2023 →

Each line is NUE’s close against its close before the filing, on licensed end-of-day closes. What happened after each report, not a forecast; a move on the day is not a cause.

Same industry

NUE against four same-industry peers, a year at 100

NUE is up 70.2% in a year. All four did less: Steel Dynamics (+46.0%), SunCoke Energy (+43.3%), COMMERCIAL METALS (+5.9%) and Carpenter Technology (−15.0%). Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, on a log scale, so the same percentage move is the same height on every line.

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NUE +70.2%. Steel Dynamics +46.0%, SunCoke Energy +43.3%, COMMERCIAL METALS +5.9%, Carpenter Technology −15.0%. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, log scale.

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End-of-day closes (Databento EOD), the last close of each week. The four peers are the largest US-listed companies by market value in NUE’s SEC industry (Steel Works, Blast Furnaces & Rolling Mills (Coke Ovens)) with a year of closes. It shows what the closes did; a move here is not a cause, a forecast or a call.

The Wire at 7 AM ET, free. Top stories with a bull and a bear case on each, every morning. No account needed.

STLD	Steel Dynamics	$34.4B	−7.59%
CRS	Carpenter Technology	$14.5B	−4.53%
CMC	COMMERCIAL METALS	$7.4B	−6.38%
SXC	SunCoke Energy	$887M	−7.18%
MTUS	Metallus	$741M	−11.81%
TWI	Titan International	$314M	−3.49%