Steel Dynamics STLD

Nasdaq · Steel Works, Blast Furnaces & Rolling Mills (Coke Ovens) · $34.4B

$221.90−7.59%Nov 5 close · Databento

Every report since 2023 →

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STLD Wire Story Reactions & EOD Technical StudyDaily closes (Databento EOD) pinned with every AlgoThesis Wire story (dot colour = next trading day close) and SEC filing

Nov 5, 2026CLOSE $221.901D −7.59%3M −17.39%SMA20 $243.08SMA50 $238.63RSI(14) 34.7

221.90

RSI (14, Wilder EOD) · 70 Overbought / 30 OversoldRSI 34.7

Data provided by Databento (end of day). Next close = the first close after a story against the close before it; official daily closes only, not a call, not advice.

2 stories have a settled next close so far (2 on the Wire). The record starts speaking at three.

The numbers

fiscal 2025, as filed with the SEC · 66-metric EOD snapshot via Databento

Market cap$34.4B

EV / True FCF87.6x

Revenue$18.2B +3.6%

True FCF (ex-SBC)$432.5M +2233.8%

Rule of 406.4%

ROIC9.6%

True FCF Yield1.3%

EPS, diluted$7.99 −18.8%

Modern Valuation (EOD)

Market Cap$34.4B

Enterprise Value$37.9B

EV / True FCF87.57

EV / FCF75.52

EV / Gross Profit15.83

EV / EBIT25.66

EV / Sales2.08

P / E (GAAP)29.03

P / FCF68.62

P / Oper. CF23.74

P / Book3.92

Owner & Cash Yields

True FCF Yield1.3%

FCF Yield1.5%

Owner Earn. Yield2.1%

Earnings Yield3.4%

Shareholder Yield+3.3%

Buyback Yield2.6%

Dividend Yield0.90%

Dividend / sh$2.00

Payout Ratio25%

FCF / sh$3.53

EPS (diluted)$7.99

Compounder & Returns

Rule of 406.4%

ROIC9.6%

Cash ROIC (CROIC)4.1%

GP / Assets14.6%

ROE13.5%

ROA7.2%

Gross Margin13.2%

Oper. Margin8.1%

Net Margin6.5%

FCF Margin2.8%

True FCF Margin2.4%

Quality & Dilution

Cash Conversion42%

Accrual Ratio−1.6%

SBC % of FCF13.8%

SBC % of Rev0.4%

Reinvest. Rate65%

Sales Growth Y/Y+3.6%

Sales 3Y CAGR−6.5%

EPS Growth Y/Y−18.8%

FCF Growth Y/Y+2233.8%

FCF 3Y CAGR−47.9%

Share Change Y/Y−5.0%

Balance Sheet & Scale

Revenue (FY)$18.2B

Gross Profit (FY)$2.4B

Oper. Income (FY)$1.5B

GAAP Net Income$1.2B

True FCF (ex-SBC)$432.5M

Cash & Equiv$775.3M

Total Debt$4.2B

Net Cash (Debt)$-3.5B

Net Cash % MCap−10.1%

Debt / FCF (yrs)8.4y

Current Ratio3.06142.22M sh

Price & Technicals (EOD)

Perf Week−12.48%

Perf Month−5.21%

Perf Quarter−15.45%

Perf Half Y−4.73%

Perf YTD+5.99%

SMA 20 Dist−8.71%$243.08

SMA 50 Dist−7.01%$238.63

SMA 100 Dist−8.07%$241.38

Window High−21.53%$282.76

Window Low+5.99%$209.35

RSI (14) · Vol34.740%v

Income Distribution & Cash Flow ConversionHow every dollar of STLD revenue flows through cost of goods, operating expenses, taxes, GAAP net income, and dilution-adjusted free cash flow

Where Every $100 of Revenue Goes (FY2025)

Cost of Revenue (COGS)$15.8B ($86.8 / $100)

SG&A & Other OpEx$916.2M ($5.0 / $100)

Tax & Non-Operating$290.4M ($1.6 / $100)

Net Profit Kept$1.2B ($6.5 / $100)

Earnings Quality: GAAP Profit → True Owner Cash (FY2025)

GAAP Net Income$1.2B (6.5% margin)

Operating Cash Flow (OCF)$1.4B(8.0% of rev)

Less: Capital Expenditures−$948.0M(5.2% of rev)

Standard Free Cash Flow (FCF)$501.5M(2.8% margin)

Less: Stock-Based Comp (SBC)−$69.0M(13.8% of FCF)

True FCF (Owner Cash ex-SBC)$432.5M(2.4% of rev)

Revenue by fiscal year

Operating leverage — margins

GrossOperatingNet

Line Item (USD)	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	YoY Δ	4Y CAGR
Income Statement
Revenue	$18.4B	$22.3B	$18.8B	$17.5B	$18.2B	+3.6%	−0.3%
Cost of Revenue (COGS)	$13.0B	$16.1B	$14.7B	$14.7B	$15.8B	+7.1%	+4.9%
Gross Profit	$5.4B	$6.1B	$4.0B	$2.8B	$2.4B	−14.6%	−18.3%
Selling, General & Admin (SG&A)	$644.0M	$545.6M	$588.6M	$664.1M	$765.3M	+15.2%	+4.4%
Total Operating Expenses	$1.1B	$1.0B	$894.7M	$859.5M	$916.2M	+6.6%	−3.6%
Operating Income (EBIT)	$4.3B	$5.1B	$3.2B	$1.9B	$1.5B	−24.0%	−23.5%
Interest Expense	$57.2M	$91.5M	$76.5M	$56.3M	$70.0M	+24.3%	+5.2%
Income Tax Expense	$962.3M	$1.1B	$751.6M	$432.9M	$305.7M	−29.4%	−24.9%
GAAP Net Income	$3.2B	$3.9B	$2.5B	$1.5B	$1.2B	−22.9%	−22.1%
Diluted EPS	$15.56	$20.92	$14.64	$9.84	$7.99	−18.8%	−15.3%
Diluted Shares	206.6M	184.6M	167.4M	156.1M	148.4M	−5.0%	−7.9%
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalents	$1.2B	$1.6B	$1.4B	$595.0M	$775.3M	+30.3%	−11.2%
Inventory	$3.5B	$3.1B	$2.9B	$3.1B	$3.7B	+20.1%	+1.4%
Total Current Assets	$6.9B	$7.6B	$6.8B	$5.4B	$6.5B	+19.4%	−1.5%
Total Assets	$12.5B	$14.2B	$14.9B	$14.9B	$16.4B	+9.9%	+7.0%
Total Current Liabilities	$2.2B	$2.0B	$2.3B	$2.2B	$2.1B	−1.3%	−1.2%
Total Debt (Short + Long Term)	$3.2B	$3.1B	$3.5B	$3.7B	$4.2B	+15.8%	+7.2%
Total Liabilities	$6.2B	$6.1B	$6.1B	$6.0B	$7.5B	+25.0%	+4.8%
Stockholders' Equity	$6.1B	$7.9B	$8.7B	$8.8B	$8.8B	+0.2%	+9.5%
Net Cash / (Net Debt)	$-2.0B	$-1.5B	$-2.1B	$-3.1B	$-3.5B	−12.9%	—
Invested Capital	$8.1B	$9.4B	$10.8B	$11.8B	$12.2B	+3.5%	+11.0%
Cash Flow & Capital Allocation
Operating Cash Flow (OCF)	$2.2B	$4.5B	$3.5B	$1.8B	$1.4B	−21.4%	−9.9%
Depreciation & Amortization (D&A)	$347.7M	$384.2M	$437.8M	$478.9M	$551.4M	+15.1%	+12.2%
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)	$57.7M	$59.2M	$61.7M	$66.6M	$69.0M	+3.6%	+4.6%
Capital Expenditures (CapEx)	$1.0B	$908.9M	$1.7B	$1.9B	$948.0M	−49.2%	−1.5%
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	$1.2B	$3.6B	$1.9B	$-23.5M	$501.5M	+2233.8%	−19.6%
True FCF (ex-SBC Owner Cash)	$1.1B	$3.5B	$1.8B	$-90.1M	$432.5M	+580.1%	−21.5%
Share Repurchases (Buybacks)	$1.1B	$1.8B	$1.5B	$1.2B	$900.9M	−25.7%	−4.0%
Dividends Paid	$213.0M	$237.2M	$271.3M	$282.6M	$291.2M	+3.0%	+8.1%

Fundamentals, income distribution and multi-year statements from SEC EDGAR filings (public domain). Valuation multiples, performance and technicals computed from Databento 1D EOD closes. For information only, not investment advice.

On the Wire

what STLD did at the next close after each story

Oct 19

Steel Dynamics misses earnings by $0.22 as revenue beats forecasts

Investing.com · 4:34 PM ET

−0.33%

Sep 17

Steel Dynamics Provides Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Guidance

PR Newswire · 4:30 PM ET

−4.11%

Aug 22

Nucor and Steel Dynamics gain from collapsed Canada trade talks, tariff terms unclear

Yahoo Finance · 9:26 AM ET

—

What happened · big days

19 big days in a year, and what we hold on each

A big day is a close more than 4.23% from the one before, three times STLD’s median day (1.41%). On 14 of the 19, its peer group moved the same way at least half as far. We show what we hold. We never name a cause.

every other trading daya big day, numbered in the list below±4.23%Hover a bar for its day. Click a big day to open it.

Shaded: since our stories began, Jun 10. Tap a bar for its day.

#DaySTLDWhat we hold that dayGroup (median of 4) · each

1 Jan 21, 2026+4.67%
Before our storiesgroup +3.3%, moved with STLD
1Jan 21, 2026+4.67%
Before our stories
+3.3% moved with STLDCMC +3.4 · SXC +3.3 · NUE +3.3 · CRS +1.3
2 Jan 26, 2026−4.41%
Before our storiesgroup −2.0%, did not move with it
2Jan 26, 2026−4.41%
Before our stories
−2.0% did not move with itSXC −3.9 · NUE −2.2 · CMC −1.8 · CRS +3.8
3 Jan 29, 2026+4.35%
Before our storiesgroup +2.7%, moved with STLD
3Jan 29, 2026+4.35%
Before our stories
+2.7% moved with STLDNUE +3.9 · CMC +3.9 · SXC +1.5 · CRS −6.4
4 Feb 6, 2026+4.85%
Before our storiesgroup +3.2%, moved with STLD
4Feb 6, 2026+4.85%
Before our stories
+3.2% moved with STLDCRS +4.7 · NUE +3.4 · CMC +3.0 · SXC +2.9
5 Mar 2, 2026+4.34%
Before our storiesgroup +2.4%, moved with STLD
5Mar 2, 2026+4.34%
Before our stories
+2.4% moved with STLDSXC +7.0 · CRS +2.6 · NUE +2.1 · CMC +0.4
6 Mar 6, 2026−4.41%
Before our storiesgroup −3.3%, moved with STLD
6Mar 6, 2026−4.41%
Before our stories
−3.3% moved with STLDSXC −5.6 · CMC −4.5 · CRS −2.0 · NUE −1.9
7 Mar 12, 2026−4.97%
Before our storiesgroup −5.3%, moved with STLD
7Mar 12, 2026−4.97%
Before our stories
−5.3% moved with STLDCRS −7.6 · CMC −7.1 · NUE −3.6 · SXC +2.5
8 Mar 31, 2026+4.79%
Before our storiesgroup +2.4%, moved with STLD
8Mar 31, 2026+4.79%
Before our stories
+2.4% moved with STLDCRS +6.3 · NUE +2.6 · CMC +2.2 · SXC −1.1
9 Apr 8, 2026+5.85%
Before our storiesgroup +5.1%, moved with STLD
9Apr 8, 2026+5.85%
Before our stories
+5.1% moved with STLDCRS +8.6 · NUE +5.1 · CMC +5.1 · SXC +0.6
10 Apr 20, 2026+4.51%
Before our storiesgroup +2.2%, did not move with it
10Apr 20, 2026+4.51%
Before our stories
+2.2% did not move with itNUE +3.3 · SXC +2.2 · CMC +2.1 · CRS +1.5
11 Apr 21, 2026+5.19%
Resultsgroup +1.2%, did not move with it
11Apr 21, 2026+5.19%
ResultsFirst close after the Apr 21 results filing
+1.2% did not move with itNUE +2.9 · SXC +2.5 · CMC −0.0 · CRS −3.0
12 May 26, 2026+4.36%
Before our storiesgroup +4.0%, moved with STLD
12May 26, 2026+4.36%
Before our stories
+4.0% moved with STLDSXC +5.6 · CRS +4.5 · NUE +3.6 · CMC +2.5
13 Jun 18, 2026−7.49%
Nothing on STLDgroup −1.1%, did not move with it
13Jun 18, 2026−7.49%
Nothing on STLDNo STLD story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−1.1% did not move with itNUE −3.5 · CMC −1.2 · SXC −1.0 · CRS +1.9
14 Jun 29, 2026−4.59%
Nothing on STLDgroup −3.6%, moved with STLD
14Jun 29, 2026−4.59%
Nothing on STLDNo STLD story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−3.6% moved with STLDCMC −6.6 · NUE −4.7 · SXC −2.6 · CRS +2.6
15 Aug 19, 2026−7.53%
Nothing on STLDgroup −4.0%, moved with STLD
15Aug 19, 2026−7.53%
Nothing on STLDNo STLD story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−4.0% moved with STLDNUE −5.8 · CRS −4.1 · CMC −4.0 · SXC +3.5
16 Aug 20, 2026−5.20%
Nothing on STLDgroup −3.7%, moved with STLD
16Aug 20, 2026−5.20%
Nothing on STLDNo STLD story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−3.7% moved with STLDCMC −4.2 · CRS −4.1 · NUE −3.3 · SXC −0.6
17 Aug 21, 2026+4.42%
Nothing on STLDgroup +1.4%, did not move with it
17Aug 21, 2026+4.42%
Nothing on STLDNo STLD story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+1.4% did not move with itSXC +3.1 · CMC +1.6 · NUE +1.3 · CRS +0.7
18 Sep 2, 2026+5.79%
Nothing on STLDgroup +3.3%, moved with STLD
18Sep 2, 2026+5.79%
Nothing on STLDNo STLD story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+3.3% moved with STLDNUE +4.8 · SXC +3.5 · CMC +3.0 · CRS −2.6
19 Nov 5, 2026−7.59%
Nothing on STLDgroup −6.8%, moved with STLD
19Nov 5, 2026−7.59%
Nothing on STLDNo STLD story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−6.8% moved with STLDNUE −8.3 · SXC −7.2 · CMC −6.4 · CRS −4.5

A story on the same day is not a cause, and a group move is not proof either. Group: the median of NUE, CRS, CMC and SXC that day, the largest companies in STLD’s SEC industry; “moved with STLD” means the same direction and at least half the size.

What’s next · results

Before the next report: what the first day after the last four did

Six trading days after each results filing (SEC 8-K, Item 2.02). STLD reports during the trading day, so day 1 is that day’s close. 3 of 4 times, day 6 ended on the same side as day 1.

Reported Jan 27, 2026

day 1+1.34%day 6+11.33%

Reported Apr 21, 2026

day 1+5.19%day 6+8.41%

Reported Jul 21, 2026

day 1+1.31%day 6+12.69%

Reported Oct 20, 2026

day 1−0.33%day 6+0.66%

Next report: expected mid-to-late JanuaryEstimated from the dates of its last four results filings. Not announced. Since the Oct 20 report: −9.49%. Four reports is a small sample.

Every report since 2023 →

Each line is STLD’s close against its close before the filing, on licensed end-of-day closes. What happened after each report, not a forecast; a move on the day is not a cause.

Same industry

STLD against four same-industry peers, a year at 100

STLD is up 46.0% in a year. Nucor is up 70.2%. Of these four, SunCoke Energy (+43.3%), COMMERCIAL METALS (+5.9%) and Carpenter Technology (−15.0%) did less. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, on a log scale, so the same percentage move is the same height on every line.

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STLD +46.0%. Nucor +70.2%, SunCoke Energy +43.3%, COMMERCIAL METALS +5.9%, Carpenter Technology −15.0%. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, log scale.

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End-of-day closes (Databento EOD), the last close of each week. The four peers are the largest US-listed companies by market value in STLD’s SEC industry (Steel Works, Blast Furnaces & Rolling Mills (Coke Ovens)) with a year of closes. It shows what the closes did; a move here is not a cause, a forecast or a call.

The Wire at 7 AM ET, free. Top stories with a bull and a bear case on each, every morning. No account needed.

NUE	Nucor	$60.8B	−8.30%
CRS	Carpenter Technology	$14.5B	−4.53%
CMC	COMMERCIAL METALS	$7.4B	−6.38%
SXC	SunCoke Energy	$887M	−7.18%
MTUS	Metallus	$741M	−11.81%
TWI	Titan International	$314M	−3.49%