Velo3D VELO
Nasdaq · Special Industry Machinery, Nec · $181M$4.84−14.26%Nov 5 close · Databento
VELO Wire Story Reactions & EOD Technical StudyDaily closes (Databento EOD) pinned with every AlgoThesis Wire story (dot colour = next trading day close) and SEC filing
Nov 5, 2026CLOSE $4.841D −14.26%3M −62.63%SMA20 $6.76SMA50 $9.21RSI(14) 24.6
4.84
RSI (14, Wilder EOD) · 70 Overbought / 30 OversoldRSI 24.6
Data provided by Databento (end of day). Next close = the first close after a story against the close before it; official daily closes only, not a call, not advice.
The numbers
fiscal 2025, as filed with the SEC · 66-metric EOD snapshot via DatabentoMarket cap$181M
Enterprise value$189.8M
Revenue$46.0M +12.1%
True FCF (ex-SBC)$-39.6M +8.1%
Rule of 40-53.2%
ROIC-118.2%
True FCF Yield-21.8%
EPS, diluted$-4.33 +94.7%
Modern Valuation (EOD)
Market Cap$181M
Enterprise Value$189.8M
EV / True FCF—
EV / FCF—
EV / Gross Profit—
EV / EBIT—
EV / Sales4.13
P / E (GAAP)—
P / FCF—
P / Oper. CF—
P / Book4.76
Owner & Cash Yields
True FCF Yield-21.8%
FCF Yield-16.6%
Owner Earn. Yield-44.2%
Earnings Yield-39.3%
Shareholder Yield—
Buyback Yield—
Dividend Yield—
Dividend / sh—
Payout Ratio—
FCF / sh$-0.93
EPS (diluted)$-4.33
Compounder & Returns
Rule of 40-53.2%
ROIC-118.2%
Cash ROIC (CROIC)-64.7%
GP / Assets-7.0%
ROE-187.0%
ROA-67.7%
Gross Margin-16.1%
Oper. Margin-119.5%
Net Margin-155.2%
FCF Margin-65.3%
True FCF Margin-86.0%
Quality & Dilution
Cash Conversion—
Accrual Ratio−41.8%
SBC % of FCF—
SBC % of Rev20.7%
Reinvest. Rate—
Sales Growth Y/Y+12.1%
Sales 3Y CAGR−16.4%
EPS Growth Y/Y+94.7%
FCF Growth Y/Y+8.1%
FCF 3Y CAGR—
Share Change Y/Y+1845.9%
Balance Sheet & Scale
Revenue (FY)$46.0M
Gross Profit (FY)$-7.4M
Oper. Income (FY)$-54.9M
GAAP Net Income$-71.4M
True FCF (ex-SBC)$-39.6M
Cash & Equiv$39.6M
Total Debt$47.9M
Net Cash (Debt)$-8.3M
Net Cash % MCap−4.6%
Debt / FCF (yrs)—
Current Ratio2.3732.15M sh
Price & Technicals (EOD)
Perf Week−31.54%
Perf Month−46.81%
Perf Quarter−65.82%
Perf Half Y−60.43%
Perf YTD−58.53%
SMA 20 Dist−28.42%$6.76
SMA 50 Dist−47.45%$9.21
SMA 100 Dist−58.96%$11.79
Window High−84.19%$30.61
Window Low0.00%$4.84
RSI (14) · Vol24.698%v
Income Distribution & Cash Flow ConversionHow every dollar of VELO revenue flows through cost of goods, operating expenses, taxes, GAAP net income, and dilution-adjusted free cash flow
Where Every $100 of Revenue Goes (FY2025)
Cost of Revenue (COGS)$53.4M ($100.0 / $100)
R&D Reinvestment$10.7M ($23.2 / $100)
Operating Expenses$36.9M ($80.2 / $100)
Tax & Non-Operating$16.4M ($35.8 / $100)
Net Profit Kept$-71.4M ($0.0 / $100)
Earnings Quality: GAAP Profit → True Owner Cash (FY2025)
GAAP Net Income$-71.4M (-155.2% margin)
Operating Cash Flow (OCF)$-27.3M(-59.4% of rev)
Less: Capital Expenditures−$2.7M(5.9% of rev)
Standard Free Cash Flow (FCF)$-30.0M(-65.3% margin)
Less: Stock-Based Comp (SBC)−$9.5M
True FCF (Owner Cash ex-SBC)$-39.6M(-86.0% of rev)
Revenue by fiscal year
Operating leverage — margins
GrossOperatingNet
| Line Item (USD) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | YoY Δ | 4Y CAGR | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | ||||||||
| Revenue | $27.4M | $78.7M | $77.4M | $41.0M | $46.0M | +12.1% | +13.8% | |
| Cost of Revenue (COGS) | $22.5M | $77.9M | $103.7M | $43.1M | $53.4M | +23.9% | +24.1% | |
| Gross Profit | $5.0M | $843,000 | $-26.3M | $-2.1M | $-7.4M | −255.1% | — | |
| Research & Development (R&D) | $27.0M | $46.3M | $42.0M | $15.5M | $10.7M | −31.2% | −20.7% | |
| Total Operating Expenses | $62.7M | $107.2M | $107.0M | $76.7M | $47.5M | −38.1% | −6.7% | |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | $-57.8M | $-106.3M | $-133.3M | $-78.8M | $-54.9M | +30.3% | — | |
| Interest Expense | $2.7M | $372,000 | $9.7M | $16.0M | $4.4M | −72.7% | +12.3% | |
| Income Tax Expense | $0 | $0 | $0 | $-20,000 | $117,000 | +685.0% | — | |
| GAAP Net Income | $-107.1M | $8.0M | $-135.1M | $-69.7M | $-71.4M | −2.3% | — | |
| Diluted EPS | $-1.82 | $0.04 | $-23.97 | $-82.32 | $-4.33 | +94.7% | — | |
| Diluted Shares | 58.7M | 202.2M | 5.6M | 847,265 | 16.5M | +1845.9% | −27.2% | |
| Balance Sheet | ||||||||
| Cash & Equivalents | $208.4M | $32.8M | $25.3M | $1.8M | $39.6M | +2054.1% | −34.0% | |
| Inventory | $22.5M | $71.2M | $60.8M | $50.0M | $27.1M | −45.8% | +4.8% | |
| Total Current Assets | $268.1M | $171.5M | $113.0M | $57.7M | $80.1M | +38.8% | −26.1% | |
| Total Assets | $302.7M | $223.1M | $153.8M | $89.2M | $105.3M | +18.1% | −23.2% | |
| Total Current Liabilities | $46.7M | $46.1M | $48.7M | $38.0M | $33.8M | −11.0% | −7.7% | |
| Total Debt (Short + Long Term) | $25.1M | $25.3M | $60.9M | $11.3M | $47.9M | +322.9% | +17.6% | |
| Total Liabilities | $192.3M | $84.3M | $85.5M | $49.5M | $67.2M | +35.7% | −23.1% | |
| Stockholders' Equity | $110.4M | $138.8M | $68.3M | $39.7M | $38.2M | −3.8% | −23.3% | |
| Net Cash / (Net Debt) | $183.3M | $7.5M | $-35.6M | $-9.5M | $-8.3M | +12.6% | — | |
| Invested Capital | $-72.9M | $131.3M | $104.0M | $49.2M | $46.4M | −5.5% | — | |
| Cash Flow & Capital Allocation | ||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow (OCF) | $-56.4M | $-124.0M | $-105.6M | $-32.7M | $-27.3M | +16.4% | — | |
| Depreciation & Amortization (D&A) | $3.0M | $5.3M | $9.3M | $4.8M | $3.4M | −29.3% | +3.0% | |
| Stock-Based Compensation (SBC) | $4.4M | $20.1M | $24.9M | $11.8M | $9.5M | −19.5% | +21.5% | |
| Capital Expenditures (CapEx) | $9.6M | $13.8M | $1.0M | $9,000 | $2.7M | +30066.7% | −27.1% | |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | $-66.0M | $-137.8M | $-106.7M | $-32.7M | $-30.0M | +8.1% | — | |
| True FCF (ex-SBC Owner Cash) | $-70.4M | $-157.9M | $-131.6M | $-44.5M | $-39.6M | +11.1% | — | |
Fundamentals, income distribution and multi-year statements from SEC EDGAR filings (public domain). Valuation multiples, performance and technicals computed from Databento 1D EOD closes. For information only, not investment advice.
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