RBNZ holds rates at 2.75% in split vote, signals further hikes likely

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept its policy rate at 2.75% on October 28, 2026, with the decision reached by a split vote. The central bank also signalled that further rate increases are likely, preserving a tightening bias despite the hold.

The split decision marks a more contested policy choice than a unanimous hold would have implied. The combination of an unchanged rate and guidance pointing toward additional hikes leaves the next move dependent on how economic conditions develop.

The immediate transmission runs through New Zealand interest rates and the New Zealand dollar, with borrowing costs and currency valuations responding to expectations for the path beyond 2.75%. Rate-sensitive assets elsewhere can also react if markets interpret the RBNZ’s stance as evidence that inflation pressure remains difficult to contain.

The key uncertainty is the balance between the hold and the signal that further hikes are likely. The next policy communication and incoming inflation and activity indicators should clarify whether the split vote was a temporary pause or the start of a more sustained debate over the tightening path.