Allison Transmission ALSN

NYSE · Motor Vehicle Parts & Accessories · $10.0B

$116.45−3.38%Nov 5 close · Databento

Every report since 2023 →

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ALSN Wire Story Reactions & EOD Technical StudyDaily closes (Databento EOD) pinned with every AlgoThesis Wire story (dot colour = next trading day close) and SEC filing

Nov 5, 2026CLOSE $116.451D −3.38%3M −6.48%SMA20 $111.32SMA50 $116.63RSI(14) 55.6

116.45

RSI (14, Wilder EOD) · 70 Overbought / 30 OversoldRSI 55.6

Data provided by Databento (end of day). Next close = the first close after a story against the close before it; official daily closes only, not a call, not advice.

The numbers

fiscal 2025, as filed with the SEC · 66-metric EOD snapshot via Databento

Market cap$10.0B

EV / True FCF17.9x

Revenue$3.0B −6.7%

True FCF (ex-SBC)$634.0M +0.5%

Rule of 4015.3%

ROIC20.6%

True FCF Yield6.4%

EPS, diluted$7.33 −11.8%

Modern Valuation (EOD)

Market Cap$10.0B

Enterprise Value$11.4B

EV / True FCF17.94

EV / FCF17.20

EV / Gross Profit7.77

EV / EBIT12.92

EV / Sales3.78

P / E (GAAP)15.97

P / FCF15.06

P / Oper. CF11.90

P / Book5.33

Owner & Cash Yields

True FCF Yield6.4%

FCF Yield6.6%

Owner Earn. Yield5.4%

Earnings Yield6.3%

Shareholder Yield+3.9%

Buyback Yield3.3%

Dividend Yield0.93%

Dividend / sh$1.08

Payout Ratio15%

FCF / sh$8.05

EPS (diluted)$7.33

Compounder & Returns

Rule of 4015.3%

ROIC20.6%

Cash ROIC (CROIC)20.1%

GP / Assets24.1%

ROE33.4%

ROA10.2%

Gross Margin48.6%

Oper. Margin29.2%

Net Margin20.7%

FCF Margin22.0%

True FCF Margin21.1%

Quality & Dilution

Cash Conversion106%

Accrual Ratio−3.5%

SBC % of FCF4.1%

SBC % of Rev0.9%

Reinvest. Rate42%

Sales Growth Y/Y−6.7%

Sales 3Y CAGR+2.8%

EPS Growth Y/Y−11.8%

FCF Growth Y/Y+0.5%

FCF 3Y CAGR+10.5%

Share Change Y/Y−3.4%

Balance Sheet & Scale

Revenue (FY)$3.0B

Gross Profit (FY)$1.5B

Oper. Income (FY)$880.0M

GAAP Net Income$623.0M

True FCF (ex-SBC)$634.0M

Cash & Equiv$1.5B

Total Debt$2.9B

Net Cash (Debt)$-1.4B

Net Cash % MCap−14.3%

Debt / FCF (yrs)4.4y

Current Ratio4.8582.13M sh

Price & Technicals (EOD)

Perf Week+5.88%

Perf Month+5.14%

Perf Quarter−2.04%

Perf Half Y−5.34%

Perf YTD−10.24%

SMA 20 Dist+4.61%$111.32

SMA 50 Dist−0.15%$116.63

SMA 100 Dist−1.51%$118.23

Window High−14.37%$136.00

Window Low+9.53%$106.32

RSI (14) · Vol55.633%v

Income Distribution & Cash Flow ConversionHow every dollar of ALSN revenue flows through cost of goods, operating expenses, taxes, GAAP net income, and dilution-adjusted free cash flow

Where Every $100 of Revenue Goes (FY2025)

Cost of Revenue (COGS)$1.5B ($51.4 / $100)

R&D Reinvestment$174.0M ($5.8 / $100)

SG&A & Other OpEx$409.0M ($13.6 / $100)

Tax & Non-Operating$257.0M ($8.5 / $100)

Net Profit Kept$623.0M ($20.7 / $100)

Earnings Quality: GAAP Profit → True Owner Cash (FY2025)

GAAP Net Income$623.0M (20.7% margin)

Operating Cash Flow (OCF)$836.0M(27.8% of rev)

Less: Capital Expenditures−$175.0M(5.8% of rev)

Standard Free Cash Flow (FCF)$661.0M(22.0% margin)

Less: Stock-Based Comp (SBC)−$27.0M(4.1% of FCF)

True FCF (Owner Cash ex-SBC)$634.0M(21.1% of rev)

Revenue by fiscal year

Operating leverage — margins

GrossOperatingNet

Line Item (USD)	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	YoY Δ	4Y CAGR
Income Statement
Revenue	$2.4B	$2.8B	$3.0B	$3.2B	$3.0B	−6.7%	+5.8%
Cost of Revenue (COGS)	$1.3B	$1.5B	$1.6B	$1.7B	$1.5B	−8.8%	+5.3%
Gross Profit	$1.1B	$1.3B	$1.5B	$1.5B	$1.5B	−4.3%	+6.3%
Research & Development (R&D)	$171.0M	$185.0M	$194.0M	$200.0M	$174.0M	−13.0%	+0.4%
Selling, General & Admin (SG&A)	$305.0M	$328.0M	$357.0M	$336.0M	$380.0M	+13.1%	+5.7%
Total Operating Expenses	$476.0M	$513.0M	$551.0M	$537.0M	$583.0M	+8.6%	+5.2%
Operating Income (EBIT)	$669.0M	$784.0M	$919.0M	$992.0M	$880.0M	−11.3%	+7.1%
Income Tax Expense	$130.0M	$114.0M	$154.0M	$166.0M	$181.0M	+9.0%	+8.6%
GAAP Net Income	$442.0M	$531.0M	$673.0M	$731.0M	$623.0M	−14.8%	+9.0%
Diluted EPS	$4.13	$5.53	$7.40	$8.31	$7.33	−11.8%	+15.4%
Diluted Shares	107.0M	96.0M	91.0M	88.0M	85.0M	−3.4%	−5.6%
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalents	$127.0M	$232.0M	$555.0M	$781.0M	$1.5B	+91.4%	+85.2%
Inventory	$204.0M	$224.0M	$276.0M	$315.0M	$316.0M	+0.3%	+11.6%
Total Current Assets	$671.0M	$866.0M	$1.3B	$1.5B	$2.2B	+45.2%	+35.1%
Total Assets	$4.5B	$4.7B	$5.0B	$5.3B	$6.1B	+14.0%	+8.1%
Total Current Liabilities	$459.0M	$480.0M	$501.0M	$506.0M	$460.0M	−9.1%	+0.1%
Total Debt (Short + Long Term)	$2.5B	$2.5B	$2.5B	$2.4B	$2.9B	+20.5%	+3.5%
Total Liabilities	$3.8B	$3.8B	$3.8B	$3.7B	$4.2B	+14.4%	+2.5%
Stockholders' Equity	$634.0M	$874.0M	$1.2B	$1.7B	$1.9B	+13.1%	+31.0%
Net Cash / (Net Debt)	$-2.4B	$-2.3B	$-2.0B	$-1.6B	$-1.4B	+13.4%	—
Invested Capital	$3.0B	$3.2B	$3.2B	$3.3B	$3.3B	−0.1%	+1.9%
Cash Flow & Capital Allocation
Operating Cash Flow (OCF)	$635.0M	$657.0M	$784.0M	$801.0M	$836.0M	+4.4%	+7.1%
Depreciation & Amortization (D&A)	$104.0M	$109.0M	$109.0M	$111.0M	$117.0M	+5.4%	+3.0%
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)	$14.0M	$18.0M	$22.0M	$26.0M	$27.0M	+3.8%	+17.8%
Capital Expenditures (CapEx)	$175.0M	$167.0M	$125.0M	$143.0M	$175.0M	+22.4%	+0.0%
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	$460.0M	$490.0M	$659.0M	$658.0M	$661.0M	+0.5%	+9.5%
True FCF (ex-SBC Owner Cash)	$446.0M	$472.0M	$637.0M	$632.0M	$634.0M	+0.3%	+9.2%
Share Repurchases (Buybacks)	$513.0M	$278.0M	$263.0M	$254.0M	$328.0M	+29.1%	−10.6%
Dividends Paid	$81.0M	$80.0M	$83.0M	$87.0M	$91.0M	+4.6%	+3.0%

Fundamentals, income distribution and multi-year statements from SEC EDGAR filings (public domain). Valuation multiples, performance and technicals computed from Databento 1D EOD closes. For information only, not investment advice.

On the Wire

what ALSN did at the next close after each story

No Wire story has named ALSN yet.

What happened · big days

16 big days in a year, and what we hold on each

A big day is a close more than 3.92% from the one before, three times ALSN’s median day (1.31%). On 6 of the 16, its peer group moved the same way at least half as far. We show what we hold. We never name a cause.

every other trading daya big day, numbered in the list below±3.92%Hover a bar for its day. Click a big day to open it.

Shaded: since our stories began, Jun 10. Tap a bar for its day.

#DayALSNWhat we hold that dayGroup (median of 4) · each

1 Dec 10, 2025+4.73%
Before our storiesgroup +3.3%, moved with ALSN
1Dec 10, 2025+4.73%
Before our stories
+3.3% moved with ALSNMGA +3.7 · BWA +3.3 · ALV +3.3 · APTV +2.9
2 Feb 24, 2026+4.41%
Resultsgroup +1.3%, did not move with it
2Feb 24, 2026+4.41%
ResultsFirst close after the Feb 23 results filing
+1.3% did not move with itMGA +1.7 · ALV +1.4 · BWA +1.2 · APTV +1.1
3 Mar 6, 2026−4.26%
Before our storiesgroup −0.6%, did not move with it
3Mar 6, 2026−4.26%
Before our stories
−0.6% did not move with itMGA −3.4 · BWA −1.8 · ALV +0.5 · APTV +0.7
4 Mar 31, 2026+3.96%
Before our storiesgroup +4.2%, moved with ALSN
4Mar 31, 2026+3.96%
Before our stories
+4.2% moved with ALSNMGA +4.5 · APTV +4.2 · ALV +4.2 · BWA +3.3
5 Apr 8, 2026+6.58%
Before our storiesgroup +5.4%, moved with ALSN
5Apr 8, 2026+6.58%
Before our stories
+5.4% moved with ALSNALV +6.1 · MGA +5.9 · BWA +4.9 · APTV +4.3
6 Apr 30, 2026+4.07%
Before our storiesgroup +3.2%, moved with ALSN
6Apr 30, 2026+4.07%
Before our stories
+3.2% moved with ALSNBWA +5.1 · APTV +3.3 · MGA +3.1 · ALV +2.3
7 May 15, 2026−4.38%
Before our storiesgroup −5.2%, moved with ALSN
7May 15, 2026−4.38%
Before our stories
−5.2% moved with ALSNBWA −6.2 · APTV −5.6 · ALV −4.8 · MGA −4.6
8 May 19, 2026−5.30%
Before our storiesgroup −0.6%, did not move with it
8May 19, 2026−5.30%
Before our stories
−0.6% did not move with itBWA −1.1 · APTV −0.8 · MGA −0.3 · ALV −0.2
9 Jun 2, 2026+4.00%
Before our storiesgroup +4.4%, moved with ALSN
9Jun 2, 2026+4.00%
Before our stories
+4.4% moved with ALSNAPTV +7.7 · MGA +4.5 · BWA +4.3 · ALV +3.1
10 Jun 25, 2026+4.04%
Nothing on ALSNgroup +1.9%, did not move with it
10Jun 25, 2026+4.04%
Nothing on ALSNNo ALSN story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+1.9% did not move with itAPTV +2.6 · MGA +2.0 · BWA +1.9 · ALV +1.6
11 Jul 1, 2026+4.19%
Nothing on ALSNgroup −2.8%, did not move with it
11Jul 1, 2026+4.19%
Nothing on ALSNNo ALSN story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−2.8% did not move with itAPTV −1.8 · ALV −2.4 · BWA −3.1 · MGA −3.9
12 Jul 29, 2026−5.33%
Nothing on ALSNgroup −0.7%, did not move with it
12Jul 29, 2026−5.33%
Nothing on ALSNNo ALSN story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−0.7% did not move with itAPTV −2.4 · BWA −1.6 · MGA +0.1 · ALV +0.5
13 Aug 4, 2026+5.43%
Resultsgroup +0.1%, did not move with it
13Aug 4, 2026+5.43%
ResultsFirst close after the Aug 3 results filing
+0.1% did not move with itMGA +3.2 · ALV +0.7 · BWA −0.4 · APTV −16.6
14 Aug 10, 2026+4.74%
Nothing on ALSNgroup −0.1%, did not move with it
14Aug 10, 2026+4.74%
Nothing on ALSNNo ALSN story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−0.1% did not move with itBWA +1.3 · APTV +0.5 · MGA −0.7 · ALV −0.9
15 Nov 2, 2026+4.66%
Nothing on ALSNgroup +1.7%, did not move with it
15Nov 2, 2026+4.66%
Nothing on ALSNNo ALSN story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+1.7% did not move with itALV +4.4 · MGA +2.7 · APTV +0.7 · BWA +0.2
16 Nov 3, 2026+5.16%
Resultsgroup −3.3%, did not move with it
16Nov 3, 2026+5.16%
ResultsFirst close after the Nov 2 results filing
−3.3% did not move with itBWA −0.1 · ALV −2.7 · MGA −3.9 · APTV −6.5

A story on the same day is not a cause, and a group move is not proof either. Group: the median of MGA, BWA, ALV and APTV that day, the largest companies in ALSN’s SEC industry; “moved with ALSN” means the same direction and at least half the size.

What’s next · results

Before the next report: what the first day after the last four did

Six trading days after each results filing (SEC 8-K, Item 2.02). ALSN reports after the close, so day 1 is the next close. 3 of 4 times, day 6 ended on the same side as day 1.

Reported Oct 29, 2025

day 1+2.44%day 6−0.15%

Reported Feb 23, 2026

day 1+4.41%day 6+6.81%

Reported May 4, 2026

day 1−1.29%day 6−7.16%

Reported Aug 3, 2026

day 1+5.43%day 6+7.46%

Next report: expected early-to-late FebruaryEstimated from the dates of its last four results filings. Not announced. Since the Nov 2 report: +6.57%. Four reports is a small sample.

Every report since 2023 →

Each line is ALSN’s close against its close before the filing, on licensed end-of-day closes. What happened after each report, not a forecast; a move on the day is not a cause.

Same industry

ALSN against four same-industry peers, a year at 100

ALSN is up 47.1% in a year. All four did less: Magna International (+31.6%), Borgwarner (+12.2%), Autoliv (+3.2%) and Aptiv (−48.3%). Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, on a log scale, so the same percentage move is the same height on every line.

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ALSN +47.1%. Magna International +31.6%, Borgwarner +12.2%, Autoliv +3.2%, Aptiv −48.3%. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, log scale.

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End-of-day closes (Databento EOD), the last close of each week. The four peers are the largest US-listed companies by market value in ALSN’s SEC industry (Motor Vehicle Parts & Accessories) with a year of closes. It shows what the closes did; a move here is not a cause, a forecast or a call.

The Wire at 7 AM ET, free. Top stories with a bull and a bear case on each, every morning. No account needed.

MGA	Magna International	$18.4B	−4.30%
BWA	Borgwarner	$10.3B	−5.69%
ALV	Autoliv	$9.2B	−1.31%
APTV	Aptiv	$9.0B	−5.57%
LEA	Lear	$5.9B	−3.88%
MOD	Modine Manufacturing	$5.2B	−7.27%
GNTX	Gentex	$4.4B	−2.93%
DORM	Dorman Products	$4.2B	−2.06%