Autoliv ALV

NYSE · Motor Vehicle Parts & Accessories · $9.2B

$124.03−1.31%Nov 5 close · Databento

Every report since 2023 →

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ALV Wire Story Reactions & EOD Technical StudyDaily closes (Databento EOD) pinned with every AlgoThesis Wire story (dot colour = next trading day close) and SEC filing

Nov 5, 2026CLOSE $124.031D −1.31%3M +1.88%SMA20 $116.80SMA50 $117.07RSI(14) 62.0

124.03

RSI (14, Wilder EOD) · 70 Overbought / 30 OversoldRSI 62.0

Data provided by Databento (end of day). Next close = the first close after a story against the close before it; official daily closes only, not a call, not advice.

The numbers

fiscal 2025, as filed with the SEC · 66-metric EOD snapshot via Databento

Market cap$9.2B

EV / True FCF14.9x

Revenue$10.8B +4.1%

True FCF (ex-SBC)$707.5M +49.2%

Rule of 4010.7%

ROIC20.6%

True FCF Yield7.7%

EPS, diluted$9.55 +18.8%

Modern Valuation (EOD)

Market Cap$9.2B

Enterprise Value$10.6B

EV / True FCF14.92

EV / FCF14.74

EV / Gross Profit5.09

EV / EBIT9.70

EV / Sales0.98

P / E (GAAP)12.52

P / FCF12.86

P / Oper. CF7.96

P / Book3.56

Owner & Cash Yields

True FCF Yield7.7%

FCF Yield7.8%

Owner Earn. Yield7.5%

Earnings Yield8.0%

Shareholder Yield+4.2%

Buyback Yield1.7%

Dividend Yield2.52%

Dividend / sh$3.12

Payout Ratio32%

FCF / sh$9.94

EPS (diluted)$9.55

Compounder & Returns

Rule of 4010.7%

ROIC20.6%

Cash ROIC (CROIC)18.2%

GP / Assets24.0%

ROE28.5%

ROA8.5%

Gross Margin19.2%

Oper. Margin10.1%

Net Margin6.8%

FCF Margin6.6%

True FCF Margin6.5%

Quality & Dilution

Cash Conversion97%

Accrual Ratio−4.9%

SBC % of FCF1.2%

SBC % of Rev0.1%

Reinvest. Rate74%

Sales Growth Y/Y+4.1%

Sales 3Y CAGR+6.9%

EPS Growth Y/Y+18.8%

FCF Growth Y/Y+49.2%

FCF 3Y CAGR+77.5%

Share Change Y/Y−4.4%

Balance Sheet & Scale

Revenue (FY)$10.8B

Gross Profit (FY)$2.1B

Oper. Income (FY)$1.1B

GAAP Net Income$735.0M

True FCF (ex-SBC)$707.5M

Cash & Equiv$604.0M

Total Debt$2.0B

Net Cash (Debt)$-1.3B

Net Cash % MCap−14.7%

Debt / FCF (yrs)2.7y

Current Ratio1.0572.01M sh

Price & Technicals (EOD)

Perf Week+6.05%

Perf Month+12.22%

Perf Quarter+0.95%

Perf Half Y+2.50%

Perf YTD+2.20%

SMA 20 Dist+6.19%$116.80

SMA 50 Dist+5.94%$117.07

SMA 100 Dist+4.41%$118.80

Window High−5.82%$131.69

Window Low+13.00%$109.76

RSI (14) · Vol62.034%v

Income Distribution & Cash Flow ConversionHow every dollar of ALV revenue flows through cost of goods, operating expenses, taxes, GAAP net income, and dilution-adjusted free cash flow

Where Every $100 of Revenue Goes (FY2025)

Cost of Revenue (COGS)$8.7B ($80.8 / $100)

R&D Reinvestment$413.0M ($3.8 / $100)

SG&A & Other OpEx$573.0M ($5.3 / $100)

Tax & Non-Operating$353.0M ($3.3 / $100)

Net Profit Kept$735.0M ($6.8 / $100)

Earnings Quality: GAAP Profit → True Owner Cash (FY2025)

GAAP Net Income$735.0M (6.8% margin)

Operating Cash Flow (OCF)$1.2B(10.7% of rev)

Less: Capital Expenditures−$441.0M(4.1% of rev)

Standard Free Cash Flow (FCF)$716.0M(6.6% margin)

Less: Stock-Based Comp (SBC)−$8.5M(1.2% of FCF)

True FCF (Owner Cash ex-SBC)$707.5M(6.5% of rev)

Revenue by fiscal year

Operating leverage — margins

GrossOperatingNet

Line Item (USD)	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	YoY Δ	4Y CAGR
Income Statement
Revenue	$8.2B	$8.8B	$10.5B	$10.4B	$10.8B	+4.1%	+7.1%
Cost of Revenue (COGS)	$6.7B	$7.4B	$8.7B	$8.5B	$8.7B	+3.3%	+6.8%
Gross Profit	$1.5B	$1.4B	$1.8B	$1.9B	$2.1B	+7.6%	+8.2%
Research & Development (R&D)	$391.0M	$390.0M	$425.0M	$398.0M	$413.0M	+3.8%	+1.4%
Selling, General & Admin (SG&A)	$432.0M	$440.0M	$500.0M	$530.0M	$571.0M	+7.7%	+7.2%
Total Operating Expenses	$836.0M	$737.0M	$1.1B	$948.0M	$986.0M	+4.0%	+4.2%
Operating Income (EBIT)	$675.0M	$659.0M	$690.0M	$979.0M	$1.1B	+11.1%	+12.7%
Interest Expense	$60.0M	$60.0M	$93.0M	$108.0M	$103.0M	−4.6%	+14.5%
Income Tax Expense	$177.0M	$178.0M	$123.0M	$227.0M	$250.0M	+10.1%	+9.0%
GAAP Net Income	$435.0M	$423.0M	$488.0M	$646.0M	$735.0M	+13.8%	+14.0%
Diluted EPS	$4.96	$4.85	$5.72	$8.04	$9.55	+18.8%	+17.8%
Diluted Shares	87.7M	87.2M	85.2M	80.4M	76.9M	−4.4%	−3.2%
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalents	$969.0M	$594.0M	$498.0M	$330.0M	$604.0M	+83.0%	−11.1%
Inventory	$777.0M	$969.0M	$1.0B	$921.0M	$992.0M	+7.7%	+6.3%
Total Current Assets	$3.7B	$3.7B	$4.0B	$3.5B	$4.1B	+17.7%	+2.8%
Total Assets	$7.5B	$7.7B	$8.3B	$7.8B	$8.6B	+10.8%	+3.5%
Total Current Liabilities	$2.8B	$3.6B	$4.0B	$3.6B	$3.9B	+8.0%	+8.6%
Total Debt (Short + Long Term)	$1.9B	$1.3B	$1.5B	$1.7B	$2.0B	+12.2%	+0.9%
Stockholders' Equity	$2.6B	$2.6B	$2.6B	$2.3B	$2.6B	+13.0%	−0.6%
Net Cash / (Net Debt)	$-912.0M	$-679.0M	$-1.0B	$-1.4B	$-1.3B	+4.4%	—
Invested Capital	$3.6B	$3.3B	$3.6B	$3.7B	$3.9B	+6.4%	+2.5%
Cash Flow & Capital Allocation
Operating Cash Flow (OCF)	$754.0M	$713.0M	$982.0M	$1.1B	$1.2B	+9.3%	+11.3%
Depreciation & Amortization (D&A)	$394.0M	$363.0M	$378.0M	$387.0M	$407.0M	+5.2%	+0.8%
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)	—	—	—	—	$8.5M	—	—
Capital Expenditures (CapEx)	$458.0M	$585.0M	$573.0M	$579.0M	$441.0M	−23.8%	−0.9%
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	$296.0M	$128.0M	$409.0M	$480.0M	$716.0M	+49.2%	+24.7%
True FCF (ex-SBC Owner Cash)	$296.0M	$128.0M	$409.0M	$480.0M	$707.5M	+47.4%	+24.3%
Share Repurchases (Buybacks)	—	—	—	—	$157.0M	—	—
Dividends Paid	$165.0M	$224.0M	$225.0M	$219.0M	$238.0M	+8.7%	+9.6%

Fundamentals, income distribution and multi-year statements from SEC EDGAR filings (public domain). Valuation multiples, performance and technicals computed from Databento 1D EOD closes. For information only, not investment advice.

On the Wire

what ALV did at the next close after each story

No Wire story has named ALV yet.

What happened · big days

16 big days in a year, and what we hold on each

A big day is a close more than 3.54% from the one before, three times ALV’s median day (1.18%). On 12 of the 16, its peer group moved the same way at least half as far. We show what we hold. We never name a cause.

every other trading daya big day, numbered in the list below±3.54%Hover a bar for its day. Click a big day to open it.

Shaded: since our stories began, Jun 10. Tap a bar for its day.

#DayALVWhat we hold that dayGroup (median of 4) · each

1 Jan 30, 2026−4.11%
Resultsgroup −3.1%, moved with ALV
1Jan 30, 2026−4.11%
ResultsFirst close after the Jan 30 results filing
−3.1% moved with ALVAPTV −3.9 · MGA −3.1 · BWA −3.1 · ALSN −2.6
2 Mar 12, 2026−3.63%
Before our storiesgroup −0.6%, did not move with it
2Mar 12, 2026−3.63%
Before our stories
−0.6% did not move with itMGA −2.4 · BWA −0.9 · APTV −0.4 · ALSN −0.1
3 Mar 23, 2026+4.01%
Before our storiesgroup +3.6%, moved with ALV
3Mar 23, 2026+4.01%
Before our stories
+3.6% moved with ALVAPTV +4.2 · BWA +3.6 · ALSN +3.6 · MGA +3.0
4 Mar 31, 2026+4.15%
Before our storiesgroup +4.1%, moved with ALV
4Mar 31, 2026+4.15%
Before our stories
+4.1% moved with ALVMGA +4.5 · APTV +4.2 · ALSN +4.0 · BWA +3.3
5 Apr 8, 2026+6.13%
Before our storiesgroup +5.4%, moved with ALV
5Apr 8, 2026+6.13%
Before our stories
+5.4% moved with ALVALSN +6.6 · MGA +5.9 · BWA +4.9 · APTV +4.3
6 Apr 17, 2026+6.82%
Resultsgroup +4.0%, moved with ALV
6Apr 17, 2026+6.82%
ResultsFirst close after the Apr 17 results filing
+4.0% moved with ALVMGA +6.7 · BWA +4.4 · APTV +3.6 · ALSN +2.2
7 May 15, 2026−4.80%
Before our storiesgroup −5.1%, moved with ALV
7May 15, 2026−4.80%
Before our stories
−5.1% moved with ALVBWA −6.2 · APTV −5.6 · MGA −4.6 · ALSN −4.4
8 May 26, 2026+3.69%
Before our storiesgroup +3.1%, moved with ALV
8May 26, 2026+3.69%
Before our stories
+3.1% moved with ALVALSN +3.8 · BWA +3.7 · APTV +2.4 · MGA +1.0
9 Jun 11, 2026+4.08%
Nothing on ALVgroup +3.5%, moved with ALV
9Jun 11, 2026+4.08%
Nothing on ALVNo ALV story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+3.5% moved with ALVBWA +5.0 · APTV +4.2 · MGA +2.7 · ALSN +1.5
10 Jun 17, 2026−4.62%
Nothing on ALVgroup −2.3%, moved with ALV
10Jun 17, 2026−4.62%
Nothing on ALVNo ALV story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−2.3% moved with ALVAPTV −4.3 · BWA −2.8 · ALSN −1.8 · MGA −0.9
11 Jul 17, 2026−3.78%
Resultsgroup −1.6%, did not move with it
11Jul 17, 2026−3.78%
ResultsFirst close after the Jul 17 results filing
−1.6% did not move with itAPTV −3.0 · ALSN −1.6 · MGA −1.6 · BWA −0.5
12 Jul 28, 2026+3.75%
Nothing on ALVgroup +1.1%, did not move with it
12Jul 28, 2026+3.75%
Nothing on ALVNo ALV story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+1.1% did not move with itAPTV +3.4 · MGA +2.8 · ALSN −0.7 · BWA −0.7
13 Sep 8, 2026−3.95%
Nothing on ALVgroup −2.6%, moved with ALV
13Sep 8, 2026−3.95%
Nothing on ALVNo ALV story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−2.6% moved with ALVAPTV −4.6 · MGA −3.4 · BWA −1.9 · ALSN −0.5
14 Oct 23, 2026−3.54%
Resultsgroup −1.9%, moved with ALV
14Oct 23, 2026−3.54%
ResultsFirst close after the Oct 23 results filing
−1.9% moved with ALVALSN −3.0 · APTV −2.6 · MGA −1.2 · BWA −0.9
15 Nov 2, 2026+4.39%
Nothing on ALVgroup +1.7%, did not move with it
15Nov 2, 2026+4.39%
Nothing on ALVNo ALV story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+1.7% did not move with itALSN +4.7 · MGA +2.7 · APTV +0.7 · BWA +0.2
16 Nov 4, 2026+5.29%
Nothing on ALVgroup +2.8%, moved with ALV
16Nov 4, 2026+5.29%
Nothing on ALVNo ALV story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+2.8% moved with ALVAPTV +4.6 · MGA +4.2 · ALSN +1.4 · BWA −2.5

A story on the same day is not a cause, and a group move is not proof either. Group: the median of MGA, BWA, ALSN and APTV that day, the largest companies in ALV’s SEC industry; “moved with ALV” means the same direction and at least half the size.

What’s next · results

Before the next report: what the first day after the last four did

Six trading days after each results filing (SEC 8-K, Item 2.02). ALV reports before the open, so day 1 is that day’s close. Each time, day 6 ended on the same side as day 1.

Reported Jan 30, 2026

day 1−4.11%day 6−0.51%

Reported Apr 17, 2026

day 1+6.82%day 6+5.82%

Reported Jul 17, 2026

day 1−3.78%day 6−6.00%

Reported Oct 23, 2026

day 1−3.54%day 6−1.13%

Next report: expected late JanuaryEstimated from the dates of its last four results filings. Not announced. Since the Oct 23 report: +5.72%. Four reports is a small sample.

Every report since 2023 →

Each line is ALV’s close against its close before the filing, on licensed end-of-day closes. What happened after each report, not a forecast; a move on the day is not a cause.

Same industry

ALV against four same-industry peers, a year at 100

ALV is up 3.2% in a year. Allison Transmission is up 47.1%, Magna International 31.6% and Borgwarner 12.2%. Of these four, only Aptiv (−48.3%) did less. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, on a log scale, so the same percentage move is the same height on every line.

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ALV +3.2%. Allison Transmission +47.1%, Magna International +31.6%, Borgwarner +12.2%, Aptiv −48.3%. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, log scale.

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End-of-day closes (Databento EOD), the last close of each week. The four peers are the largest US-listed companies by market value in ALV’s SEC industry (Motor Vehicle Parts & Accessories) with a year of closes. It shows what the closes did; a move here is not a cause, a forecast or a call.

The Wire at 7 AM ET, free. Top stories with a bull and a bear case on each, every morning. No account needed.

MGA	Magna International	$18.4B	−4.30%
BWA	Borgwarner	$10.3B	−5.69%
ALSN	Allison Transmission	$10.0B	−3.38%
APTV	Aptiv	$9.0B	−5.57%
LEA	Lear	$5.9B	−3.88%
MOD	Modine Manufacturing	$5.2B	−7.27%
GNTX	Gentex	$4.4B	−2.93%
DORM	Dorman Products	$4.2B	−2.06%