TXN Wire Story Reactions & EOD Technical StudyDaily closes (Databento EOD) pinned with every AlgoThesis Wire story (dot colour = next trading day close) and SEC filing
Nov 5, 2026CLOSE $278.151D −10.70%3M −0.82%SMA20 $291.36SMA50 $278.84RSI(14) 42.9
Data provided by Databento (end of day). Next close = the first close after a story against the close before it; official daily closes only, not a call, not advice.
The numbers
fiscal 2025, as filed with the SEC · 66-metric EOD snapshot via Databento
Market cap$284.5B
EV / True FCF135.4x
Revenue$17.7B +13.0%
True FCF (ex-SBC)$2.2B +73.8%
Rule of 4027.7%
ROIC19.1%
True FCF Yield0.8%
EPS, diluted$5.45 +4.8%
Modern Valuation (EOD)
Market Cap$284.5B
Enterprise Value$295.8B
EV / True FCF135.44
EV / FCF113.63
EV / Gross Profit29.34
EV / EBIT49.11
EV / Sales16.73
P / E (GAAP)56.88
P / FCF109.28
P / Oper. CF39.77
P / Book17.48
Owner & Cash Yields
True FCF Yield0.8%
FCF Yield0.9%
Owner Earn. Yield0.7%
Earnings Yield1.8%
Shareholder Yield+2.1%
Buyback Yield0.5%
Dividend Yield1.98%
Dividend / sh$5.50
Payout Ratio100%
FCF / sh$2.85
EPS (diluted)$5.45
Compounder & Returns
Rule of 4027.7%
ROIC19.1%
Cash ROIC (CROIC)9.4%
GP / Assets29.2%
ROE30.7%
ROA14.5%
Gross Margin57.0%
Oper. Margin34.1%
Net Margin28.3%
FCF Margin14.7%
True FCF Margin12.4%
Quality & Dilution
Cash Conversion52%
Accrual Ratio−6.2%
SBC % of FCF16.1%
SBC % of Rev2.4%
Reinvest. Rate93%
Sales Growth Y/Y+13.0%
Sales 3Y CAGR−4.1%
EPS Growth Y/Y+4.8%
FCF Growth Y/Y+73.8%
FCF 3Y CAGR−24.0%
Share Change Y/Y−0.7%
Balance Sheet & Scale
Revenue (FY)$17.7B
Gross Profit (FY)$10.1B
Oper. Income (FY)$6.0B
GAAP Net Income$5.0B
True FCF (ex-SBC)$2.2B
Cash & Equiv$3.2B
Total Debt$14.5B
Net Cash (Debt)$-11.3B
Net Cash % MCap−4.0%
Debt / FCF (yrs)5.6y
Current Ratio4.35913.77M sh
Price & Technicals (EOD)
Perf Week−11.12%
Perf Month−3.75%
Perf Quarter−2.77%
Perf Half Y−2.49%
Perf YTD+19.02%
SMA 20 Dist−4.53%$291.36
SMA 50 Dist−0.25%$278.84
SMA 100 Dist−1.78%$283.19
Window High−16.29%$332.28
Window Low+19.30%$233.15
RSI (14) · Vol42.954%v
Income Distribution & Cash Flow ConversionHow every dollar of TXN revenue flows through cost of goods, operating expenses, taxes, GAAP net income, and dilution-adjusted free cash flow
Less: Stock-Based Comp (SBC)−$419.0M(16.1% of FCF)
True FCF (Owner Cash ex-SBC)$2.2B(12.4% of rev)
Revenue by fiscal year
$18.3BFY21
$20.0BFY22
$17.5BFY23
$15.6BFY24
$17.7BFY25
Operating leverage — margins
GrossOperatingNet
Unlocked SEC EDGAR Accounting Statements (USD)All 3 statements · Common-size (% of Revenue / Assets) · YoY growth · Tap any core row to explain
Line Item (USD)
FY2021
FY2022
FY2023
FY2024
FY2025
YoY Δ
4Y CAGR
Trend
Income Statement
Revenue ▸
$18.3B
$20.0B
$17.5B
$15.6B
$17.7B
+13.0%
−0.9%
Cost of Revenue (COGS)
$6.0B
$6.3B
$6.5B
$6.5B
$7.6B
+16.1%
+6.2%
Gross Profit ▸
$12.4B
$13.8B
$11.0B
$9.1B
$10.1B
+10.9%
−5.0%
Research & Development (R&D)
$1.6B
$1.7B
$1.9B
$2.0B
$2.1B
+6.3%
+7.6%
Selling, General & Admin (SG&A)
$1.7B
$1.7B
$1.8B
$1.8B
$1.9B
+3.7%
+2.8%
Total Operating Expenses
$3.4B
$3.6B
$3.7B
$3.6B
$4.1B
+11.9%
+4.4%
Operating Income (EBIT) ▸
$9.0B
$10.1B
$7.3B
$5.5B
$6.0B
+10.2%
−9.5%
Income Tax Expense
$1.1B
$1.3B
$908.0M
$654.0M
$709.0M
+8.4%
−11.4%
GAAP Net Income ▸
$7.8B
$8.7B
$6.5B
$4.8B
$5.0B
+4.2%
−10.4%
Diluted EPS ▸
$8.26
$9.41
$7.07
$5.20
$5.45
+4.8%
−9.9%
Diluted Shares
936.0M
926.0M
916.0M
919.0M
913.0M
−0.7%
−0.6%
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalents
$4.6B
$3.0B
$3.0B
$3.2B
$3.2B
+0.8%
−8.6%
Inventory
$1.9B
$2.8B
$4.0B
$4.5B
$4.8B
+6.1%
+25.9%
Total Current Assets
$13.7B
$14.0B
$15.1B
$15.0B
$13.8B
−8.5%
+0.1%
Total Assets
$24.7B
$27.2B
$32.3B
$35.5B
$34.6B
−2.6%
+8.8%
Total Current Liabilities
$2.6B
$3.0B
$3.3B
$3.6B
$3.2B
−13.3%
+5.3%
Total Debt (Short + Long Term)
$8.2B
$9.2B
$11.8B
$14.3B
$14.5B
+1.4%
+15.3%
Total Liabilities
$11.3B
$12.6B
$15.5B
$18.6B
$18.3B
−1.6%
+12.7%
Stockholders' Equity
$13.3B
$14.6B
$16.9B
$16.9B
$16.3B
−3.7%
+5.1%
Net Cash / (Net Debt)
$-3.6B
$-6.2B
$-8.9B
$-11.1B
$-11.3B
−1.6%
—
Invested Capital
$16.9B
$20.8B
$25.8B
$28.0B
$27.6B
−1.6%
+13.0%
Cash Flow & Capital Allocation
Operating Cash Flow (OCF) ▸
$8.8B
$8.7B
$6.4B
$6.3B
$7.2B
+13.2%
−4.9%
Depreciation & Amortization (D&A)
$755.0M
$925.0M
$1.2B
$1.5B
$1.9B
+27.2%
+26.2%
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)
$230.0M
$289.0M
$362.0M
$387.0M
$419.0M
+8.3%
+16.2%
Capital Expenditures (CapEx)
$2.5B
$2.8B
$5.1B
$4.8B
$4.5B
−5.6%
+16.6%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) ▸
$6.3B
$5.9B
$1.3B
$1.5B
$2.6B
+73.8%
−19.8%
True FCF (ex-SBC Owner Cash)
$6.1B
$5.6B
$987.0M
$1.1B
$2.2B
+96.6%
−22.5%
Share Repurchases (Buybacks)
$527.0M
$3.6B
$293.0M
$929.0M
$1.5B
+59.0%
+29.4%
Dividends Paid
$3.9B
$4.3B
$4.6B
$4.8B
$5.0B
+4.3%
+6.5%
Fundamentals, income distribution and multi-year statements from SEC EDGAR filings (public domain). Valuation multiples, performance and technicals computed from Databento 1D EOD closes. For information only, not investment advice.
On the Wire
what TXN did at the next close after each story
No Wire story has named TXN yet.
The Wire at 7 AM ET, free. Top stories with a bull and a bear case on each, every morning. No account needed.
What happened · big days
24 big days in a year, and what we hold on each
A big day is a close more than 4.06% from the one before, three times TXN’s median day (1.35%). On 11 of the 24, its peer group moved the same way at least half as far. We show what we hold. We never name a cause.
every other trading daya big day, numbered in the list below±4.06%Hover a bar for its day. Click a big day to open it.
Shaded: since our stories began, Jun 10. Tap a bar for its day.
#DayTXNWhat we hold that dayGroup (median of 4) · each
1 Dec 2, 2025+4.22%
Before our storiesgroup −0.8%, did not move with it
1Dec 2, 2025+4.22%
Before our stories
−0.8% did not move with itNVDA +0.9 · MU −0.4 · AVGO −1.2 · AMD −2.1
2 Dec 3, 2025+4.19%
Before our storiesgroup −0.6%, did not move with it
2Dec 3, 2025+4.19%
Before our stories
−0.6% did not move with itAMD +1.1 · AVGO −0.3 · NVDA −1.0 · MU −2.2
3 Jan 6, 2026+8.43%
Before our storiesgroup −0.2%, did not move with it
3Jan 6, 2026+8.43%
Before our stories
−0.2% did not move with itMU +10.0 · AVGO +0.1 · NVDA −0.5 · AMD −3.0
4 Jan 28, 2026+9.94%
Resultsgroup +0.9%, did not move with it
4Jan 28, 2026+9.94%
ResultsFirst close after the Jan 27 results filing
+0.9% did not move with itMU +6.1 · NVDA +1.6 · AMD +0.3 · AVGO +0.1
5 Feb 2, 2026+4.39%
Before our storiesgroup +2.0%, did not move with it
5Feb 2, 2026+4.39%
Before our stories
+2.0% did not move with itMU +5.5 · AMD +4.0 · AVGO −0.1 · NVDA −2.9
6 Mar 12, 2026−4.34%
Before our storiesgroup −2.4%, moved with TXN
6Mar 12, 2026−4.34%
Before our stories
−2.4% moved with TXNAMD −3.5 · MU −3.2 · AVGO −1.6 · NVDA −1.6
7 Mar 31, 2026+4.14%
Before our storiesgroup +5.2%, moved with TXN
7Mar 31, 2026+4.14%
Before our stories
+5.2% moved with TXNNVDA +5.6 · AVGO +5.5 · MU +5.0 · AMD +3.8
8 Apr 8, 2026+4.59%
Before our storiesgroup +4.8%, moved with TXN
8Apr 8, 2026+4.59%
Before our stories
+4.8% moved with TXNMU +7.7 · AVGO +5.0 · AMD +4.6 · NVDA +2.2
9 Apr 23, 2026+19.43%
Resultsgroup −0.9%, did not move with it
9Apr 23, 2026+19.43%
ResultsFirst close after the Apr 22 results filing
−0.9% did not move with itAMD +0.6 · AVGO −0.6 · MU −1.2 · NVDA −1.4
10 Apr 30, 2026+4.41%
Before our storiesgroup +1.4%, did not move with it
10Apr 30, 2026+4.41%
Before our stories
+1.4% did not move with itAMD +5.2 · AVGO +3.0 · MU −0.3 · NVDA −4.6
11 May 26, 2026+5.07%
Before our storiesgroup +4.8%, moved with TXN
11May 26, 2026+5.07%
Before our stories
+4.8% moved with TXNMU +19.3 · AMD +7.8 · AVGO +1.9 · NVDA −0.2
12 Jun 1, 2026−4.08%
Before our storiesgroup +4.6%, did not move with it
12Jun 1, 2026−4.08%
Before our stories
+4.6% did not move with itAMD −1.2 · AVGO +3.0 · NVDA +6.3 · MU +6.6
13 Jun 2, 2026+5.09%
Before our storiesgroup +2.5%, did not move with it
13Jun 2, 2026+5.09%
Before our stories
+2.5% did not move with itAVGO +4.7 · MU +2.8 · AMD +2.2 · NVDA −0.7
14 Jun 5, 2026−6.65%
Before our storiesgroup −9.4%, moved with TXN
14Jun 5, 2026−6.65%
Before our stories
−9.4% moved with TXNMU −13.3 · AMD −10.9 · AVGO −7.9 · NVDA −6.2
15 Jun 11, 2026+5.35%
Nothing on TXNgroup +5.8%, moved with TXN
15Jun 11, 2026+5.35%
Nothing on TXNNo TXN story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+5.8% moved with TXNMU +11.7 · AMD +8.0 · AVGO +3.6 · NVDA +2.2
16 Jun 18, 2026+6.95%
Nothing on TXNgroup +4.8%, moved with TXN
16Jun 18, 2026+6.95%
Nothing on TXNNo TXN story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+4.8% moved with TXNMU +8.7 · AMD +4.9 · AVGO +4.7 · NVDA +3.0
17 Jun 23, 2026−8.40%
Nothing on TXNgroup −5.0%, moved with TXN
17Jun 23, 2026−8.40%
Nothing on TXNNo TXN story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−5.0% moved with TXNMU −13.2 · AMD −5.8 · NVDA −4.1 · AVGO −3.1
18 Jun 26, 2026−8.46%
Nothing on TXNgroup −2.9%, did not move with it
18Jun 26, 2026−8.46%
Nothing on TXNNo TXN story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−2.9% did not move with itMU −6.7 · AVGO −3.7 · AMD −2.1 · NVDA −1.6
19 Jun 30, 2026+4.41%
Nothing on TXNgroup +2.0%, did not move with it
19Jun 30, 2026+4.41%
Nothing on TXNNo TXN story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+2.0% did not move with itAMD +7.7 · NVDA +2.6 · AVGO +1.4 · MU +0.8
20 Jul 13, 2026−4.14%
Nothing on TXNgroup −4.1%, moved with TXN
20Jul 13, 2026−4.14%
Nothing on TXNNo TXN story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−4.1% moved with TXNMU −4.3 · AMD −4.2 · AVGO −4.0 · NVDA −3.5
21 Aug 4, 2026+5.42%
Nothing on TXNgroup +6.8%, moved with TXN
21Aug 4, 2026+5.42%
Nothing on TXNNo TXN story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+6.8% moved with TXNMU +7.6 · AMD +7.0 · AVGO +6.6 · NVDA +2.6
22 Oct 2, 2026+4.44%
Nothing on TXNgroup +2.1%, did not move with it
22Oct 2, 2026+4.44%
Nothing on TXNNo TXN story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+2.1% did not move with itAVGO +3.4 · AMD +3.0 · NVDA +1.3 · MU −2.0
23 Oct 26, 2026+4.72%
Nothing on TXNgroup +2.6%, moved with TXN
23Oct 26, 2026+4.72%
Nothing on TXNNo TXN story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+2.6% moved with TXNMU +3.0 · AMD +2.8 · NVDA +2.4 · AVGO +2.3
24 Nov 5, 2026−10.70%
Nothing on TXN
24Nov 5, 2026−10.70%
Nothing on TXNNo TXN story, brief or results filing in our record that day
No group that day
A story on the same day is not a cause, and a group move is not proof either. Group: the median of NVDA, AVGO, MU and AMD that day, the largest companies in TXN’s SEC industry; “moved with TXN” means the same direction and at least half the size.
What’s next · results
Before the next report: what the first day after the last four did
Six trading days after each results filing (SEC 8-K, Item 2.02). TXN reports after the close, so day 1 is the next close. 3 of 4 times, day 6 ended on the same side as day 1.
Reported Jan 27, 2026
day 1+9.94%day 6+13.37%
Reported Apr 22, 2026
day 1+19.43%day 6+18.95%
Reported Jul 22, 2026
day 1−3.13%day 6−5.24%
Reported Oct 21, 2026
day 1−1.81%day 6+9.94%
Next report: expected mid-to-late JanuaryEstimated from the dates of its last four results filings. Not announced. Since the Oct 21 report: −2.28%. Four reports is a small sample.
Each line is TXN’s close against its close before the filing, on licensed end-of-day closes. What happened after each report, not a forecast; a move on the day is not a cause.
Same industry
TXN against four chip peers, a year at 100
TXN is up 73.3% in a year. Micron is up 2.8 times. Of these four, Advanced Micro Devices (+73.2%), NVIDIA (+6.4%) and Broadcom (−6.8%) did less. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, on a log scale so a 2.8-fold rise and a 6.8% fall both read honestly.
End-of-day closes (Databento EOD), the last close of each week. The four peers are the largest US-listed companies by market value in TXN’s SEC industry (Semiconductors & Related Devices) with a year of closes. It shows what the closes did; a move here is not a cause, a forecast or a call.