MDLN Wire Story Reactions & EOD Technical StudyDaily closes (Databento EOD) pinned with every AlgoThesis Wire story (dot colour = next trading day close) and SEC filing
Nov 5, 2026CLOSE $39.761D −1.46%3M +17.60%SMA20 $35.08SMA50 $34.68RSI(14) 69.8
Data provided by Databento (end of day). Next close = the first close after a story against the close before it; official daily closes only, not a call, not advice.
The numbers
fiscal 2025, as filed with the SEC · 66-metric EOD snapshot via Databento
Market cap$32.7B
EV / True FCF35.5x
Revenue$28.4B +11.5%
True FCF (ex-SBC)$1.2B −8.3%
Rule of 4016.1%
ROIC6.9%
True FCF Yield3.7%
EPS, diluted$-0.01
Modern Valuation (EOD)
Market Cap$32.7B
Enterprise Value$43.3B
EV / True FCF35.46
EV / FCF33.39
EV / Gross Profit5.76
EV / EBIT19.58
EV / Sales1.52
P / E (GAAP)0.03
P / FCF25.20
P / Oper. CF18.74
P / Book1.69
Owner & Cash Yields
True FCF Yield3.7%
FCF Yield4.0%
Owner Earn. Yield3541.5%
Earnings Yield3540.0%
Shareholder Yield−0.1%
Buyback Yield0.1%
Dividend Yield—
Dividend / sh—
Payout Ratio—
FCF / sh—
EPS (diluted)$-0.01
Compounder & Returns
Rule of 4016.1%
ROIC6.9%
Cash ROIC (CROIC)4.3%
GP / Assets19.5%
ROE5999.2%
ROA3006.4%
Gross Margin26.4%
Oper. Margin7.8%
Net Margin4069.4%
FCF Margin4.6%
True FCF Margin4.3%
Quality & Dilution
Cash Conversion0%
Accrual Ratio+3001.9%
SBC % of FCF5.9%
SBC % of Rev0.3%
Reinvest. Rate30%
Sales Growth Y/Y+11.5%
Sales 3Y CAGR—
EPS Growth Y/Y—
FCF Growth Y/Y−8.3%
FCF 3Y CAGR—
Share Change Y/Y—
Balance Sheet & Scale
Revenue (FY)$28.4B
Gross Profit (FY)$7.5B
Oper. Income (FY)$2.2B
GAAP Net Income$1,157B
True FCF (ex-SBC)$1.2B
Cash & Equiv$1.9B
Total Debt$12.6B
Net Cash (Debt)$-10.6B
Net Cash % MCap−32.5%
Debt / FCF (yrs)9.7y
Current Ratio4.29
Price & Technicals (EOD)
Perf Week+24.25%
Perf Month+12.16%
Perf Quarter+12.86%
Perf Half Y−5.02%
Perf YTD−16.31%
SMA 20 Dist+13.36%$35.08
SMA 50 Dist+14.64%$34.68
SMA 100 Dist+9.62%$36.27
Window High−16.31%$47.51
Window Low+25.66%$31.64
RSI (14) · Vol69.868%v
Income Distribution & Cash Flow ConversionHow every dollar of MDLN revenue flows through cost of goods, operating expenses, taxes, GAAP net income, and dilution-adjusted free cash flow
Unlocked SEC EDGAR Accounting Statements (USD)All 3 statements · Common-size (% of Revenue / Assets) · YoY growth · Tap any core row to explain
Line Item (USD)
FY2023
FY2024
FY2025
YoY Δ
CAGR
Trend
Income Statement
Revenue ▸
$23.2B
$25.5B
$28.4B
+11.5%
+10.6%
Cost of Revenue (COGS)
$17.3B
$18.5B
$20.9B
+12.9%
+9.8%
Gross Profit ▸
$5.9B
$7.0B
$7.5B
+7.8%
+13.0%
Research & Development (R&D)
$60.0M
$67.0M
$80.0M
+19.4%
+15.5%
Selling, General & Admin (SG&A)
$3.9B
$4.1B
$4.5B
+10.1%
+8.2%
Total Operating Expenses
$4.6B
$4.8B
$5.3B
+9.9%
+7.0%
Operating Income (EBIT) ▸
$1.3B
$2.1B
$2.2B
+3.1%
+33.0%
Interest Expense
$1.2B
$1.1B
$945.0M
−17.4%
−11.7%
Income Tax Expense
$30.0M
$46.0M
$91.0M
+97.8%
+74.2%
GAAP Net Income ▸
$234.0M
$1.2B
$1,157B
+99384.1%
+6931.7%
Diluted EPS ▸
—
—
$-0.01
—
—
Diluted Shares
—
—
810.0M
—
—
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalents
$1.6B
$250.0M
$1.9B
+676.8%
+10.7%
Inventory
$4.8B
$4.5B
$4.8B
+7.0%
−0.4%
Total Current Assets
$12.7B
$8.3B
$10.7B
+29.1%
−8.1%
Total Assets
$40.2B
$36.0B
$38.5B
+7.0%
−2.1%
Total Current Liabilities
$3.1B
$2.4B
$2.5B
+2.0%
−10.8%
Total Debt (Short + Long Term)
$12.6B
$16.5B
$12.6B
−23.8%
−0.1%
Total Liabilities
$20.8B
$19.5B
$19.2B
−1.3%
−3.9%
Stockholders' Equity
$19.4B
$19.4B
$19.3B
−0.5%
−0.3%
Net Cash / (Net Debt)
$-11.0B
$-16.2B
$-10.6B
+34.6%
—
Invested Capital
$30.4B
$35.6B
$29.9B
−16.1%
−0.8%
Cash Flow & Capital Allocation
Operating Cash Flow (OCF) ▸
$1.7B
$1.8B
$1.7B
−1.4%
+1.7%
Depreciation & Amortization (D&A)
$951.0M
$977.0M
$1.0B
+3.5%
+3.1%
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)
$78.0M
$61.0M
$76.0M
+24.6%
−1.3%
Capital Expenditures (CapEx)
$275.0M
$354.0M
$447.0M
+26.3%
+27.5%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) ▸
$1.4B
$1.4B
$1.3B
−8.3%
−4.1%
True FCF (ex-SBC Owner Cash)
$1.3B
$1.4B
$1.2B
−9.8%
−4.3%
Share Repurchases (Buybacks)
$0
$20.0M
$33.0M
+65.0%
—
Fundamentals, income distribution and multi-year statements from SEC EDGAR filings (public domain). Valuation multiples, performance and technicals computed from Databento 1D EOD closes. For information only, not investment advice.
On the Wire
what MDLN did at the next close after each story
No Wire story has named MDLN yet.
The Wire at 7 AM ET, free. Top stories with a bull and a bear case on each, every morning. No account needed.
What happened · big days
16 big days in a year, and what we hold on each
A big day is a close more than 4.91% from the one before, three times MDLN’s median day (1.64%). On 1 of the 16, its peer group moved the same way at least half as far. We show what we hold. We never name a cause.
every other trading daya big day, numbered in the list below±4.91%Hover a bar for its day. Click a big day to open it.
Shaded: since our stories began, Jun 10. Tap a bar for its day.
#DayMDLNWhat we hold that dayGroup (median of 4) · each
1 Dec 19, 2025+5.44%
Before our storiesgroup +0.3%, did not move with it
1Dec 19, 2025+5.44%
Before our stories
+0.3% did not move with itSYK +0.6 · BDX +0.5 · MMM +0.1 · BSX −0.5
2 Jan 12, 2026+5.43%
Before our storiesgroup −0.8%, did not move with it
2Jan 12, 2026+5.43%
Before our stories
−0.8% did not move with itMMM +1.6 · BDX 0.0 · SYK −1.7 · BSX −2.0
3 Jan 22, 2026+6.14%
Before our storiesgroup −0.3%, did not move with it
3Jan 22, 2026+6.14%
Before our stories
−0.3% did not move with itMMM +3.0 · BDX −0.1 · BSX −0.5 · SYK −1.2
4 May 6, 2026−7.30%
Resultsgroup +0.2%, did not move with it
4May 6, 2026−7.30%
ResultsFirst close after the May 6 results filing
+0.2% did not move with itSYK −1.0 · BSX +0.0 · BDX +0.4 · MMM +2.6
5 May 8, 2026−5.59%
Before our storiesgroup −2.7%, did not move with it
5May 8, 2026−5.59%
Before our stories
−2.7% did not move with itBSX −4.7 · SYK −3.0 · BDX −2.5 · MMM −0.3
6 May 15, 2026−6.97%
Before our storiesgroup −0.1%, did not move with it
6May 15, 2026−6.97%
Before our stories
−0.1% did not move with itBSX −1.6 · BDX −0.7 · SYK +0.4 · MMM +0.8
7 Jun 2, 2026−7.16%
Before our storiesgroup −0.6%, did not move with it
7Jun 2, 2026−7.16%
Before our stories
−0.6% did not move with itSYK −2.1 · BSX −0.6 · BDX −0.6 · MMM +1.3
8 Jun 9, 2026+6.54%
Before our storiesgroup +1.5%, did not move with it
8Jun 9, 2026+6.54%
Before our stories
+1.5% did not move with itSYK +4.1 · MMM +1.6 · BDX +1.4 · BSX +0.5
9 Jul 1, 2026+5.81%
Nothing on MDLNgroup +0.2%, did not move with it
9Jul 1, 2026+5.81%
Nothing on MDLNNo MDLN story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+0.2% did not move with itBDX +1.0 · BSX +0.9 · SYK −0.5 · MMM −1.2
10 Jul 8, 2026−6.30%
Nothing on MDLNgroup −1.6%, did not move with it
10Jul 8, 2026−6.30%
Nothing on MDLNNo MDLN story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−1.6% did not move with itBDX −3.7 · MMM −2.1 · BSX −1.1 · SYK −0.9
11 Aug 5, 2026−12.79%
Resultsgroup +0.3%, did not move with it
11Aug 5, 2026−12.79%
ResultsFirst close after the Aug 5 results filing
+0.3% did not move with itBSX −2.8 · SYK +0.3 · BDX +0.3 · MMM +0.3
12 Aug 6, 2026−5.88%
Nothing on MDLNgroup +1.7%, did not move with it
12Aug 6, 2026−5.88%
Nothing on MDLNNo MDLN story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+1.7% did not move with itMMM −0.8 · SYK +0.1 · BSX +3.3 · BDX +3.8
13 Aug 21, 2026+5.16%
Nothing on MDLNgroup +1.3%, did not move with it
13Aug 21, 2026+5.16%
Nothing on MDLNNo MDLN story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+1.3% did not move with itBDX +2.3 · BSX +2.0 · SYK +0.5 · MMM +0.5
14 Sep 8, 2026−5.19%
Nothing on MDLNgroup −4.5%, moved with MDLN
14Sep 8, 2026−5.19%
Nothing on MDLNNo MDLN story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−4.5% moved with MDLNSYK −8.8 · BSX −5.9 · BDX −3.0 · MMM −0.6
15 Sep 22, 2026+7.73%
Nothing on MDLNgroup +1.9%, did not move with it
15Sep 22, 2026+7.73%
Nothing on MDLNNo MDLN story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+1.9% did not move with itBSX +2.7 · MMM +2.6 · BDX +1.3 · SYK +0.3
16 Nov 4, 2026+18.36%
Resultsgroup +7.5%, did not move with it
16Nov 4, 2026+18.36%
ResultsFirst close after the Nov 4 results filing
+7.5% did not move with itMMM +9.6 · SYK +9.4 · BDX +5.6 · BSX +5.3
A story on the same day is not a cause, and a group move is not proof either. Group: the median of SYK, MMM, BSX and BDX that day, the largest companies in MDLN’s SEC industry; “moved with MDLN” means the same direction and at least half the size.
What’s next · results
Before the next report: what the first day after the last three did
Six trading days after each results filing (SEC 8-K, Item 2.02). MDLN reports before the open, so day 1 is that day’s close. Each time, day 6 ended on the same side as day 1.
Reported Feb 25, 2026
day 1−3.62%day 6−14.22%
Reported May 6, 2026
day 1−7.30%day 6−14.59%
Reported Aug 5, 2026
day 1−12.79%day 6−15.56%
Next report: expected early-to-late FebruaryEstimated from the dates of its last four results filings. Not announced. Since the Nov 4 report: +16.63%. Three reports is a small sample.
Each line is MDLN’s close against its close before the filing, on licensed end-of-day closes. What happened after each report, not a forecast; a move on the day is not a cause.