Shopify SHOP

Nasdaq · Services-Prepackaged Software · $199.7B

$143.75−6.06%Nov 5 close · Databento

Every report since 2025 →

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SHOP Wire Story Reactions & EOD Technical StudyDaily closes (Databento EOD) pinned with every AlgoThesis Wire story (dot colour = next trading day close) and SEC filing

Nov 5, 2026CLOSE $143.751D −6.06%3M −7.37%SMA20 $166.26SMA50 $152.62RSI(14) 38.2

143.75

RSI (14, Wilder EOD) · 70 Overbought / 30 OversoldRSI 38.2

Data provided by Databento (end of day). Next close = the first close after a story against the close before it; official daily closes only, not a call, not advice.

1 story has a settled next close so far (1 on the Wire). The record starts speaking at three.

The numbers

fiscal 2025, as filed with the SEC · 66-metric EOD snapshot via Databento

Market cap$199.7B

EV / True FCF127.2x

Revenue$11.6B +30.1%

True FCF (ex-SBC)$1.6B +25.7%

Rule of 4047.5%

ROIC10.0%

True FCF Yield0.8%

EPS, diluted$0.94 −39.4%

Modern Valuation (EOD)

Market Cap$199.7B

Enterprise Value$198.2B

EV / True FCF127.18

EV / FCF98.73

EV / Gross Profit35.67

EV / EBIT134.98

EV / Sales17.15

P / E (GAAP)162.22

P / FCF99.50

P / Oper. CF98.23

P / Book14.82

Owner & Cash Yields

True FCF Yield0.8%

FCF Yield1.0%

Owner Earn. Yield0.4%

Earnings Yield0.6%

Shareholder Yield—

Buyback Yield—

Dividend Yield—

Dividend / sh—

Payout Ratio—

FCF / sh—

EPS (diluted)$0.94

Compounder & Returns

Rule of 4047.5%

ROIC10.0%

Cash ROIC (CROIC)16.8%

GP / Assets36.6%

ROE9.1%

ROA8.1%

Gross Margin48.1%

Oper. Margin12.7%

Net Margin10.7%

FCF Margin17.4%

True FCF Margin13.5%

Quality & Dilution

Cash Conversion163%

Accrual Ratio−5.3%

SBC % of FCF22.4%

SBC % of Rev3.9%

Reinvest. Rate77%

Sales Growth Y/Y+30.1%

Sales 3Y CAGR+27.3%

EPS Growth Y/Y−39.4%

FCF Growth Y/Y+25.7%

FCF 3Y CAGR—

Share Change Y/Y+0.3%

Balance Sheet & Scale

Revenue (FY)$11.6B

Gross Profit (FY)$5.6B

Oper. Income (FY)$1.5B

GAAP Net Income$1.2B

True FCF (ex-SBC)$1.6B

Cash & Equiv$1.5B

Total Debt—

Net Cash (Debt)$1.5B

Net Cash % MCap+0.8%

Debt / FCF (yrs)—

Current Ratio5.96

Price & Technicals (EOD)

Perf Week−13.87%

Perf Month−13.42%

Perf Quarter−5.16%

Perf Half Y+28.65%

Perf YTD+6.37%

SMA 20 Dist−13.54%$166.26

SMA 50 Dist−5.81%$152.62

SMA 100 Dist+2.07%$140.83

Window High−19.79%$179.22

Window Low+50.68%$95.40

RSI (14) · Vol38.263%v

Income Distribution & Cash Flow ConversionHow every dollar of SHOP revenue flows through cost of goods, operating expenses, taxes, GAAP net income, and dilution-adjusted free cash flow

Where Every $100 of Revenue Goes (FY2025)

Cost of Revenue (COGS)$6.0B ($51.9 / $100)

R&D Reinvestment$1.5B ($13.3 / $100)

Operating Expenses$2.6B ($22.1 / $100)

Tax & Non-Operating$237.0M ($2.1 / $100)

Net Profit Kept$1.2B ($10.7 / $100)

Earnings Quality: GAAP Profit → True Owner Cash (FY2025)

GAAP Net Income$1.2B (10.7% margin)

Operating Cash Flow (OCF)$2.0B(17.6% of rev)

Less: Capital Expenditures−$26.0M(0.2% of rev)

Standard Free Cash Flow (FCF)$2.0B(17.4% margin)

Less: Stock-Based Comp (SBC)−$449.0M(22.4% of FCF)

True FCF (Owner Cash ex-SBC)$1.6B(13.5% of rev)

Revenue by fiscal year

Operating leverage — margins

GrossOperatingNet

Line Item (USD)	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	YoY Δ	4Y CAGR
Income Statement
Revenue	$4.6B	$5.6B	$7.1B	$8.9B	$11.6B	+30.1%	+25.8%
Cost of Revenue (COGS)	$2.1B	$2.8B	$3.5B	$4.4B	$6.0B	+36.1%	+29.5%
Gross Profit	$2.5B	$2.8B	$3.5B	$4.5B	$5.6B	+24.2%	+22.3%
Research & Development (R&D)	$854.4M	$1.5B	$1.7B	$1.4B	$1.5B	+12.4%	+15.8%
Total Operating Expenses	$2.2B	$3.6B	$4.9B	$3.4B	$4.1B	+20.3%	+16.6%
Operating Income (EBIT)	$268.6M	$-822.0M	$-1.4B	$1.1B	$1.5B	+36.6%	+52.9%
Interest Expense	$3.5M	$3.5M	—	—	$3.5M	—	+0.0%
Income Tax Expense	$225.9M	$-163.0M	$53.0M	$209.0M	$278.0M	+33.0%	+5.3%
GAAP Net Income	$2.9B	$-3.5B	$132.0M	$2.0B	$1.2B	−39.0%	−19.4%
Diluted EPS	$2.29	$-2.73	$0.10	$1.55	$0.94	−39.4%	−20.0%
Diluted Shares	1.27B	1.27B	1.30B	1.30B	1.30B	+0.3%	+0.6%
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalents	$2.5B	$1.6B	$1.4B	$1.5B	$1.5B	+3.1%	−11.4%
Inventory	$1.6M	$1.6M	$19.0M	$26.0M	$21.0M	−19.2%	+89.9%
Total Current Assets	$8.5B	$6.0B	$6.3B	$7.3B	$8.3B	+14.4%	−0.7%
Total Assets	$13.3B	$10.8B	$11.3B	$13.9B	$15.2B	+9.1%	+3.3%
Total Current Liabilities	$702.7M	$856.0M	$898.0M	$2.0B	$1.4B	−28.8%	+18.6%
Stockholders' Equity	$11.1B	$8.2B	$9.1B	$11.6B	$13.5B	+16.6%	+4.9%
Net Cash / (Net Debt)	$2.5B	$1.6B	$1.4B	$1.5B	$1.5B	+3.1%	−11.4%
Invested Capital	$8.6B	$6.6B	$7.7B	$10.1B	$11.9B	+18.6%	+8.4%
Cash Flow & Capital Allocation
Operating Cash Flow (OCF)	$535.7M	$-136.0M	$944.0M	$1.6B	$2.0B	+25.8%	+39.6%
Depreciation & Amortization (D&A)	$66.3M	$93.0M	$70.0M	$36.0M	$31.0M	−13.9%	−17.3%
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)	$330.8M	$549.0M	$615.0M	$430.0M	$449.0M	+4.4%	+7.9%
Capital Expenditures (CapEx)	$50.8M	$50.0M	$39.0M	$19.0M	$26.0M	+36.8%	−15.4%
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	$484.9M	$-186.0M	$905.0M	$1.6B	$2.0B	+25.7%	+42.6%
True FCF (ex-SBC Owner Cash)	$154.2M	$-735.0M	$290.0M	$1.2B	$1.6B	+33.5%	+78.3%

Fundamentals, income distribution and multi-year statements from SEC EDGAR filings (public domain). Valuation multiples, performance and technicals computed from Databento 1D EOD closes. For information only, not investment advice.

On the Wire

what SHOP did at the next close after each story

Nov 3

Shopify misses revenue expectations as tech market turns less forgiving

MarketWatch · 7:59 AM ET

−8.74%

What happened · big days

23 big days in a year, and what we hold on each

A big day is a close more than 6.29% from the one before, three times SHOP’s median day (2.10%). On 5 of the 23, its peer group moved the same way at least half as far. We show what we hold. We never name a cause.

every other trading daya big day, numbered in the list below±6.29%Hover a bar for its day. Click a big day to open it.

Shaded: since our stories began, Jun 10. Tap a bar for its day.

#DaySHOPWhat we hold that dayGroup (median of 4) · each

1 Nov 13, 2025−6.55%
Before our storiesgroup −3.2%, did not move with it
1Nov 13, 2025−6.55%
Before our stories
−3.2% did not move with itPLTR −6.5 · ORCL −4.2 · CRM −2.3 · MSFT −1.5
2 Jan 20, 2026−7.26%
Before our storiesgroup −2.3%, did not move with it
2Jan 20, 2026−7.26%
Before our stories
−2.3% did not move with itORCL −5.8 · CRM −3.1 · PLTR −1.4 · MSFT −1.2
3 Jan 30, 2026−8.64%
Before our storiesgroup −1.7%, did not move with it
3Jan 30, 2026−8.64%
Before our stories
−1.7% did not move with itPLTR −3.5 · ORCL −2.6 · CRM −0.8 · MSFT −0.7
4 Feb 3, 2026−9.77%
Before our storiesgroup −3.1%, did not move with it
4Feb 3, 2026−9.77%
Before our stories
−3.1% did not move with itCRM −6.8 · ORCL −3.4 · MSFT −2.9 · PLTR +6.8
5 Feb 10, 2026+7.47%
Before our storiesgroup −0.2%, did not move with it
5Feb 10, 2026+7.47%
Before our stories
−0.2% did not move with itORCL +2.1 · MSFT −0.1 · CRM −0.3 · PLTR −2.4
6 Feb 11, 2026−6.70%
Resultsgroup −2.5%, did not move with it
6Feb 11, 2026−6.70%
ResultsFirst close after the Feb 11 results filing
−2.5% did not move with itCRM −4.4 · PLTR −2.8 · MSFT −2.1 · ORCL −1.7
7 Feb 12, 2026−6.78%
Before our storiesgroup −0.5%, did not move with it
7Feb 12, 2026−6.78%
Before our stories
−0.5% did not move with itPLTR −4.8 · MSFT −0.6 · ORCL −0.4 · CRM +0.2
8 Feb 18, 2026+7.13%
Before our storiesgroup +1.6%, did not move with it
8Feb 18, 2026+7.13%
Before our stories
+1.6% did not move with itCRM +1.9 · PLTR +1.8 · ORCL +1.4 · MSFT +0.7
9 Feb 23, 2026−7.07%
Before our storiesgroup −3.6%, moved with SHOP
9Feb 23, 2026−7.07%
Before our stories
−3.6% moved with SHOPORCL −4.6 · CRM −3.8 · PLTR −3.4 · MSFT −3.2
10 Mar 4, 2026+6.38%
Before our storiesgroup +1.3%, did not move with it
10Mar 4, 2026+6.38%
Before our stories
+1.3% did not move with itPLTR +4.1 · ORCL +2.3 · MSFT +0.3 · CRM −1.5
11 Apr 9, 2026−6.43%
Before our storiesgroup −3.6%, moved with SHOP
11Apr 9, 2026−6.43%
Before our stories
−3.6% moved with SHOPPLTR −7.3 · ORCL −4.0 · CRM −3.1 · MSFT −0.3
12 Apr 15, 2026+8.30%
Before our storiesgroup +4.4%, moved with SHOP
12Apr 15, 2026+8.30%
Before our stories
+4.4% moved with SHOPPLTR +4.8 · MSFT +4.6 · ORCL +4.2 · CRM +3.7
13 May 5, 2026−15.62%
Resultsgroup +0.1%, did not move with it
13May 5, 2026−15.62%
ResultsFirst close after the May 5 results filing
+0.1% did not move with itPLTR −6.9 · MSFT −0.5 · CRM +0.8 · ORCL +2.8
14 May 11, 2026−7.13%
Before our storiesgroup −0.9%, did not move with it
14May 11, 2026−7.13%
Before our stories
−0.9% did not move with itCRM −2.4 · ORCL −1.1 · PLTR −0.7 · MSFT −0.6
15 May 28, 2026+7.91%
Before our storiesgroup +5.1%, moved with SHOP
15May 28, 2026+7.91%
Before our stories
+5.1% moved with SHOPPLTR +8.2 · ORCL +6.7 · MSFT +3.5 · CRM −0.8
16 Jul 1, 2026+6.52%
Nothing on SHOPgroup +3.6%, moved with SHOP
16Jul 1, 2026+6.52%
Nothing on SHOPNo SHOP story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+3.6% moved with SHOPPLTR +7.8 · CRM +4.2 · MSFT +3.0 · ORCL −2.8
17 Jul 27, 2026+11.54%
Nothing on SHOPgroup +5.2%, did not move with it
17Jul 27, 2026+11.54%
Nothing on SHOPNo SHOP story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+5.2% did not move with itPLTR +7.0 · CRM +6.1 · ORCL +4.3 · MSFT +1.9
18 Aug 5, 2026+16.98%
Resultsgroup −1.0%, did not move with it
18Aug 5, 2026+16.98%
ResultsFirst close after the Aug 5 results filing
−1.0% did not move with itCRM +1.0 · ORCL −0.9 · MSFT −1.1 · PLTR −2.6
19 Sep 8, 2026−7.57%
Nothing on SHOPgroup −1.7%, did not move with it
19Sep 8, 2026−7.57%
Nothing on SHOPNo SHOP story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−1.7% did not move with itCRM −3.9 · PLTR −2.3 · MSFT −1.1 · ORCL +2.4
20 Sep 21, 2026+7.33%
Nothing on SHOPgroup +1.1%, did not move with it
20Sep 21, 2026+7.33%
Nothing on SHOPNo SHOP story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+1.1% did not move with itPLTR +3.1 · MSFT +1.6 · ORCL +0.6 · CRM −0.6
21 Sep 22, 2026+7.12%
Nothing on SHOPgroup −0.1%, did not move with it
21Sep 22, 2026+7.12%
Nothing on SHOPNo SHOP story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−0.1% did not move with itPLTR +1.0 · ORCL +0.4 · MSFT −0.7 · CRM −1.3
22 Nov 3, 2026−8.74%
Results · 1 storygroup +0.6%, did not move with it
22Nov 3, 2026−8.74%
Results · 1 storyFirst close after the Nov 3 results filing
+0.6% did not move with itCRM −1.8 · PLTR −1.6 · MSFT +2.7 · ORCL +5.8
23 Nov 4, 2026+7.34%
Nothing on SHOPgroup +0.1%, did not move with it
23Nov 4, 2026+7.34%
Nothing on SHOPNo SHOP story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+0.1% did not move with itMSFT +6.7 · CRM +2.2 · ORCL −1.9 · PLTR −2.1

A story on the same day is not a cause, and a group move is not proof either. Group: the median of MSFT, PLTR, ORCL and CRM that day, the largest companies in SHOP’s SEC industry; “moved with SHOP” means the same direction and at least half the size.

What’s next · results

Before the next report: what the first day after the last four did

Six trading days after each results filing (SEC 8-K, Item 2.02). SHOP reports before the open, so day 1 is that day’s close. Each time, day 6 ended on the same side as day 1.

Reported Nov 4, 2025

day 1−6.94%day 6−8.10%

Reported Feb 11, 2026

day 1−6.70%day 6−2.70%

Reported May 5, 2026

day 1−15.62%day 6−21.72%

Reported Aug 5, 2026

day 1+16.98%day 6+21.99%

Next report: expected early-to-mid FebruaryEstimated from the dates of its last four results filings. Not announced. Since the Nov 3 report: −7.98%. Four reports is a small sample.

Every report since 2025 →

Each line is SHOP’s close against its close before the filing, on licensed end-of-day closes. What happened after each report, not a forecast; a move on the day is not a cause.

Same industry

SHOP against four software peers, a year at 100

SHOP is down 5.7% in a year. Microsoft is up 11.9%. Of these four, Salesforce (−7.3%), Palantir (−12.9%) and Oracle (−48.3%) did less. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, on a log scale, so the same percentage move is the same height on every line.

Share this chart

SHOP −5.7%. Microsoft +11.9%, Salesforce −7.3%, Palantir −12.9%, Oracle −48.3%. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, log scale.

Share this chart

End-of-day closes (Databento EOD), the last close of each week. The four peers are the largest US-listed companies by market value in SHOP’s SEC industry (Services-Prepackaged Software) with a year of closes. It shows what the closes did; a move here is not a cause, a forecast or a call.

The Wire at 7 AM ET, free. Top stories with a bull and a bear case on each, every morning. No account needed.

MSFT	Microsoft	$4.13T	—
PLTR	Palantir	$440.4B	—
ORCL	Oracle	$356.4B	—
CRM	Salesforce	$186.0B	—
NOW	ServiceNow	$112.5B	—
SNOW	Snowflake	$100.5B	—
ADBE	Adobe	$98.8B	—
INTU	Intuit	$98.6B	—