BOJ seen lifting rates to 1.50% in December on quarterly schedule
The Bank of Japan is expected to raise rates to 1.50% in December while maintaining its quarterly pace, according to a Reuters poll. That would extend the policy-normalization path and keep the yen and Japan’s rate-sensitive assets tied to the BOJ’s next decisions.
File photo · The Bank of Japan’s head office, Tokyo · Aug 2026 · Syced · CC0 · Source & licenseThe story
Economists expect the Bank of Japan to lift its policy rate to 1.50% in December, with the move forming part of a quarterly sequence of increases, according to a Reuters poll.
The expected decision would continue the BOJ’s gradual normalization rather than mark a shift to a faster schedule. The key change for markets is the projected endpoint and the persistence of the quarterly cadence.
The policy path directly concerns the BOJ and the yen, while Japanese bonds and equities remain exposed to changes in the expected pace of tightening. Its broader transmission will depend on how markets price future BOJ decisions alongside global rates.
The poll-based expectation is not itself a policy decision, so the December meeting remains the next formal test. The BOJ’s rate decision and accompanying guidance will determine whether the 1.50% projection and quarterly pace hold.
Our read · Tue, Oct 20
A Reuters poll puts the BOJ on course for a 1.50% rate in December while retaining quarterly increases.
Why. The market setup turns on the gap between a continued quarterly hiking rhythm and the eventual level at which the BOJ pauses. December’s decision and guidance should determine whether the 1.50% projection becomes the next policy anchor for the yen and Japanese rates.
Both cases
What could change this view: A December decision that departs from the 1.50% projection or quarterly pace would invalidate the expected policy path.
Who reported it · 1
Keep reading
Latest on the Wire
Barkin sees interest rate hikes ahead, but at a gradual paceGoogle could take stake in TeraWulf’s $19 billion AI projectCardinal Health raises fiscal 2027 outlook after $67.5B quarterChina blocks SoftBank’s $5.4 billion purchase of ABB RoboticsBank of England expected to raise rates for first time since 2023Continue on the Wire →Latest on the Wire
Qualcomm shares slump 10% as margin pressure and costs riseRheinmetall cuts sales forecast after Boxer order delay, shares fall 17%2D Fusion declares fusion products commercial, first deliveries due in Q3-2029Qualcomm signs multi-year SpaceX deal for tens of thousands of 5G sitesContinue on the Wire →Top this week
Binance halts withdrawals after apparent $6.3bn security breachDemocrats sweep Congress, setting Trump up for legislative gridlockFutures rebound after blue sweep as dollar slides and gold tops $4,000Amazon burns $33.5 billion in free cash flow as capex surgesTrump’s Republican Party faces a midterm verdict from US voters todayAbout this report
Reported by Investing.com as BOJ to raise rates to 1.50% in December, sticking to quarterly pace: Reuters poll
, . Who answers for this
The only report in this record. Closes are licensed end-of-day data from Databento; the move after a story is its first close against the close before it. How this is decided →
Kept as written · your side, if you take one, is graded privately against licensed closes after 10 trading days · nothing here is advice · How the Wire is made →