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Amazon burns $33.5 billion in free cash flow as capex surges

Amazon burned $33.5 billion in free cash flow during the third quarter as quarterly capex jumped to $77.3 billion and its outlook disappointed. The setup now turns on whether the spending surge converts into growth quickly enough to offset the financing burden.

Amazon’s Spheres, Seattle — file photoFile photo · Amazon’s Spheres, Seattle · May 2022 · Sea Cow · CC BY-SA 4.0 · Source & license

The story

Amazon reported third-quarter free cash flow of negative $33.5 billion, compared with a Bloomberg consensus expectation for an outflow of $7.7 billion, according to the report. Quarterly capital expenditure rose 43% from $54.2 billion in the second quarter to $77.3 billion, while trailing free cash flow deteriorated to negative $42.4 billion from negative $7.6 billion three months earlier.

The figures mark a sharp change from the prior quarter's cash position and frame the company's weaker guidance against an unusually heavy investment cycle. The report also says Amazon raised $48 billion to help fund the spending, linking the cash-flow deterioration to external financing as well as operating investment.

The direct mechanism is Amazon's capital budget: higher infrastructure spending consumes cash immediately, while the expected return depends on future revenue and profitability. Amazon's FY2025 company figures show $716.9 billion in revenue, up 12.4% year over year, and a 10.8% net margin, but those older annual figures do not resolve how quickly the latest capex can produce incremental cash flow.

The report's account is based on the quarterly figures and the comparison with consensus; the durability of the spending and the detail behind the weaker guide remain the central uncertainties. The next key evidence will be Amazon's fourth-quarter results and updated spending and cash-flow figures, particularly whether capex remains near the third-quarter level and whether operating cash generation improves.

Our read · Thu, Oct 29

Amazon (AMZN) burned $33.5 billion in third-quarter free cash flow as capex surged to $77.3 billion.

Why. The immediate consequence is a financing-heavy investment cycle: quarterly capex reached $77.3 billion while free cash flow fell to negative $33.5 billion, and Amazon raised $48 billion to help fund it. FY2025 revenue of $716.9 billion and a 10.8% net margin show an established earnings base, but the next quarterly cash-flow and spending update must demonstrate that this investment can translate into stronger cash generation.

Both cases

The case it holdsAmazon's FY2025 revenue grew 12.4% year over year with a 10.8% net margin, giving the company an operating base that could absorb a temporary investment surge if spending produces faster growth.
The case it breaksThe concrete bear case is the cash-flow shock itself: third-quarter free cash flow of negative $33.5 billion, trailing free cash flow of negative $42.4 billion and $48 billion of new financing alongside weaker guidance.

What could change this view: The read is invalidated if Amazon's next results show capex moderating and free cash flow recovering materially despite the weaker guide.

Amazon stock page →
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Who reported it · 11

ZeroHedgeoriginalThu, Oct 29 · 4:25 PM ETAmazon Craters As Cash Burn Explodes, Weak Guide
Investing.comFri, Oct 30 · 12:56 AM ETAmazon projects fourth quarter sales below estimates
Financial TimesFri, Oct 30 · 1:56 AM ETAmazon shares slide on lower Christmas sales forecast
Investing.comFri, Oct 30 · 4:41 AM ETWhy is Amazon stock plunging today?
SEC EDGARFri, Oct 30 · 6:11 AM ETAMZN files 10-Q — Quarterly Report: 10-Q

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About this report

Reported by ZeroHedge as Amazon Craters As Cash Burn Explodes, Weak Guide, . Who answers for this

11 reports from 6 publishers in this record. Closes are licensed end-of-day data from Databento; the move after a story is its first close against the close before it. How this is decided →

Kept as written · your side, if you take one, is graded privately against licensed closes after 10 trading days · nothing here is advice · How the Wire is made →