Clarida sees Fed hike in December and possibly again in March

Richard Clarida, a former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve, said he expects the central bank to raise interest rates in December and potentially follow that move with another increase in March. He made the forecast during an appearance on Bloomberg Surveillance: The Fed Decides on October 28.

The view comes after the Fed’s latest decision, when policymakers held the federal-funds target range at 3-3/4 to 4 percent in a 10–2 vote. Governors Lisa Cook and Adriana Kugler preferred a 1/4 percentage-point increase, underscoring that the committee already contains officials who favor tighter policy.

For companies, the transmission runs through discount rates, borrowing costs and demand. Meta’s advertising business generated $201.0B of revenue in fiscal 2025, so the direct effect of higher rates would be through valuation and broader economic conditions rather than a specifically identified change to its operations.

Clarida’s forecast is not a Federal Reserve decision, and the March move remains conditional. The path will depend on incoming inflation, employment and financial-conditions data, as well as the views of voting policymakers.

The next scheduled policy decision is the key test for the December call; markets will also need to reassess the March possibility as the Fed publishes new projections and officials update their guidance.