Aebi Schmidt AEBI

Nasdaq · Construction Machinery & Equip · $903M

$11.07−4.82%Nov 5 close · Databento

Every report since 2025 →

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AEBI Wire Story Reactions & EOD Technical StudyDaily closes (Databento EOD) pinned with every AlgoThesis Wire story (dot colour = next trading day close) and SEC filing

Nov 5, 2026CLOSE $11.071D −4.82%3M −13.18%SMA20 $11.24SMA50 $11.55RSI(14) 44.2

11.07

RSI (14, Wilder EOD) · 70 Overbought / 30 OversoldRSI 44.2

Data provided by Databento (end of day). Next close = the first close after a story against the close before it; official daily closes only, not a call, not advice.

The numbers

fiscal 2025, as filed with the SEC · 66-metric EOD snapshot via Databento

Market cap$903M

Enterprise value$1.4B

Revenue$1.5B +40.6%

True FCF (ex-SBC)$-12.4M −109.5%

Rule of 4040.3%

ROIC4.7%

True FCF Yield-1.4%

EPS, diluted$0.17 −77.6%

Modern Valuation (EOD)

Market Cap$903M

Enterprise Value$1.4B

EV / True FCF—

EV / FCF—

EV / Gross Profit4.76

EV / EBIT19.79

EV / Sales0.95

P / E (GAAP)92.67

P / FCF—

P / Oper. CF100.59

P / Book1.11

Owner & Cash Yields

True FCF Yield-1.4%

FCF Yield-0.6%

Owner Earn. Yield3.6%

Earnings Yield1.1%

Shareholder Yield+0.7%

Buyback Yield—

Dividend Yield1.54%

Dividend / sh$0.17

Payout Ratio138%

FCF / sh$-0.07

EPS (diluted)$0.17

Compounder & Returns

Rule of 4040.3%

ROIC4.7%

Cash ROIC (CROIC)-0.4%

GP / Assets15.1%

ROE1.2%

ROA0.5%

Gross Margin19.9%

Oper. Margin4.8%

Net Margin0.6%

FCF Margin-0.3%

True FCF Margin-0.8%

Quality & Dilution

Cash Conversion-54%

Accrual Ratio0.0%

SBC % of FCF—

SBC % of Rev0.5%

Reinvest. Rate454%

Sales Growth Y/Y+40.6%

Sales 3Y CAGR—

EPS Growth Y/Y−77.6%

FCF Growth Y/Y−109.5%

FCF 3Y CAGR—

Share Change Y/Y+45.6%

Balance Sheet & Scale

Revenue (FY)$1.5B

Gross Profit (FY)$304.1M

Oper. Income (FY)$73.1M

GAAP Net Income$9.7M

True FCF (ex-SBC)$-12.4M

Cash & Equiv$98.5M

Total Debt$641.9M

Net Cash (Debt)$-543.4M

Net Cash % MCap−60.2%

Debt / FCF (yrs)—

Current Ratio1.9077.60M sh

Price & Technicals (EOD)

Perf Week−3.15%

Perf Month+1.10%

Perf Quarter−15.56%

Perf Half Y−5.55%

Perf YTD−4.16%

SMA 20 Dist−1.50%$11.24

SMA 50 Dist−4.15%$11.55

SMA 100 Dist−8.38%$12.08

Window High−19.49%$13.75

Window Low+4.63%$10.58

RSI (14) · Vol44.229%v

Income Distribution & Cash Flow ConversionHow every dollar of AEBI revenue flows through cost of goods, operating expenses, taxes, GAAP net income, and dilution-adjusted free cash flow

Where Every $100 of Revenue Goes (FY2025)

Cost of Revenue (COGS)$1.2B ($80.1 / $100)

R&D Reinvestment$26.5M ($1.7 / $100)

SG&A & Other OpEx$204.5M ($13.4 / $100)

Tax & Non-Operating$63.3M ($4.1 / $100)

Net Profit Kept$9.7M ($0.6 / $100)

Earnings Quality: GAAP Profit → True Owner Cash (FY2025)

GAAP Net Income$9.7M (0.6% margin)

Operating Cash Flow (OCF)$9.0M(0.6% of rev)

Less: Capital Expenditures−$14.2M(0.9% of rev)

Standard Free Cash Flow (FCF)$-5.2M(-0.3% margin)

Less: Stock-Based Comp (SBC)−$7.2M

True FCF (Owner Cash ex-SBC)$-12.4M(-0.8% of rev)

Revenue by fiscal year

Operating leverage — margins

GrossOperatingNet

Line Item (USD)	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	YoY Δ	CAGR
Income Statement
Revenue	$1.0B	$1.1B	$1.5B	+40.6%	+22.6%
Cost of Revenue (COGS)	$808.9M	$857.7M	$1.2B	+42.5%	+22.9%
Gross Profit	$206.7M	$228.2M	$304.1M	+33.2%	+21.3%
Research & Development (R&D)	$17.1M	$19.6M	$26.5M	+35.5%	+24.4%
Selling, General & Admin (SG&A)	$117.1M	$124.7M	$180.6M	+44.9%	+24.2%
Total Operating Expenses	$147.6M	$159.7M	$231.0M	+44.6%	+25.1%
Operating Income (EBIT)	$59.0M	$68.5M	$73.1M	+6.7%	+11.3%
Interest Expense	$38.0M	$34.1M	$41.8M	+22.5%	+4.8%
Income Tax Expense	$6.1M	$10.9M	$1.5M	−86.4%	−50.8%
GAAP Net Income	$11.2M	$30.7M	$9.7M	−68.3%	−6.7%
Diluted EPS	$0.28	$0.76	$0.17	−77.6%	−22.1%
Diluted Shares	40.3M	40.4M	58.8M	+45.6%	+20.7%
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalents	$42.7M	$65.2M	$98.5M	+51.2%	+51.9%
Inventory	$380.2M	$231.4M	$346.4M	+49.7%	−4.5%
Total Current Assets	$897.0M	$518.2M	$877.7M	+69.4%	−1.1%
Total Assets	$2.0B	$1.1B	$2.0B	+84.6%	−0.2%
Total Current Liabilities	$452.6M	$267.2M	$461.3M	+72.6%	+1.0%
Total Debt (Short + Long Term)	$684.0M	$423.1M	$641.9M	+51.7%	−3.1%
Total Liabilities	$1.2B	$722.9M	$1.2B	+65.1%	+0.1%
Stockholders' Equity	$338.0M	$365.2M	$815.0M	+123.2%	+55.3%
Net Cash / (Net Debt)	$-641.3M	$-357.9M	$-543.4M	−51.8%	—
Invested Capital	$979.3M	$723.1M	$1.4B	+87.8%	+17.8%
Cash Flow & Capital Allocation
Operating Cash Flow (OCF)	$30.1M	$68.8M	$9.0M	−87.0%	−45.4%
Depreciation & Amortization (D&A)	$27.2M	$26.4M	$44.2M	+67.3%	+27.6%
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)	$0	$0	$7.2M	—	—
Capital Expenditures (CapEx)	$11.7M	$13.6M	$14.2M	+4.5%	+10.1%
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	$18.4M	$55.2M	$-5.2M	−109.5%	—
True FCF (ex-SBC Owner Cash)	$18.4M	$55.2M	$-12.4M	−122.5%	—
Dividends Paid	$2.1M	$3.2M	$13.4M	+316.6%	+154.8%

Fundamentals, income distribution and multi-year statements from SEC EDGAR filings (public domain). Valuation multiples, performance and technicals computed from Databento 1D EOD closes. For information only, not investment advice.

On the Wire

what AEBI did at the next close after each story

No Wire story has named AEBI yet.

What happened · big days

18 big days in a year, and what we hold on each

A big day is a close more than 5.49% from the one before, three times AEBI’s median day (1.83%). On 3 of the 18, its peer group moved the same way at least half as far. We show what we hold. We never name a cause.

every other trading daya big day, numbered in the list below±5.49%Hover a bar for its day. Click a big day to open it.

Shaded: since our stories began, Jun 10. Tap a bar for its day.

#DayAEBIWhat we hold that dayGroup (median of 4) · each

1 Nov 21, 2025+7.69%
Before our storiesgroup +3.0%, did not move with it
1Nov 21, 2025+7.69%
Before our stories
+3.0% did not move with itPLOW +3.2 · CNH +3.1 · ASTE +2.9 · CAT +0.8
2 Feb 6, 2026+6.84%
Before our storiesgroup +4.3%, moved with AEBI
2Feb 6, 2026+6.84%
Before our stories
+4.3% moved with AEBICAT +7.1 · ASTE +5.0 · CNH +3.6 · PLOW +2.3
3 Mar 5, 2026−5.93%
Before our storiesgroup −3.5%, moved with AEBI
3Mar 5, 2026−5.93%
Before our stories
−3.5% moved with AEBICNH −4.2 · CAT −3.5 · ASTE −3.4 · PLOW −2.8
4 Mar 19, 2026−11.99%
Resultsgroup −0.6%, did not move with it
4Mar 19, 2026−11.99%
ResultsFirst close after the Mar 19 results filing
−0.6% did not move with itASTE −2.5 · CAT −0.7 · CNH −0.4 · PLOW +0.2
5 Mar 20, 2026−12.30%
Before our storiesgroup −1.3%, did not move with it
5Mar 20, 2026−12.30%
Before our stories
−1.3% did not move with itASTE −3.2 · CNH −1.4 · CAT −1.1 · PLOW −1.1
6 Apr 8, 2026+10.24%
Before our storiesgroup +6.5%, moved with AEBI
6Apr 8, 2026+10.24%
Before our stories
+6.5% moved with AEBICNH +6.8 · CAT +6.5 · ASTE +6.5 · PLOW +6.3
7 Apr 9, 2026+6.78%
Before our storiesgroup +2.5%, did not move with it
7Apr 9, 2026+6.78%
Before our stories
+2.5% did not move with itASTE +3.8 · PLOW +2.9 · CAT +2.0 · CNH +1.8
8 Apr 13, 2026+7.20%
Before our storiesgroup +0.1%, did not move with it
8Apr 13, 2026+7.20%
Before our stories
+0.1% did not move with itPLOW +0.8 · CAT +0.1 · CNH +0.1 · ASTE −0.2
9 Apr 16, 2026−5.98%
Before our storiesgroup −1.0%, did not move with it
9Apr 16, 2026−5.98%
Before our stories
−1.0% did not move with itASTE −2.6 · CNH −2.2 · PLOW +0.1 · CAT +0.3
10 May 4, 2026−6.34%
Before our storiesgroup −2.9%, did not move with it
10May 4, 2026−6.34%
Before our stories
−2.9% did not move with itASTE −4.1 · PLOW −3.3 · CNH −2.5 · CAT −1.7
11 May 11, 2026+6.52%
Before our storiesgroup +0.6%, did not move with it
11May 11, 2026+6.52%
Before our stories
+0.6% did not move with itCAT +3.3 · PLOW +1.1 · CNH +0.1 · ASTE −1.0
12 May 12, 2026−6.20%
Before our storiesgroup −2.0%, did not move with it
12May 12, 2026−6.20%
Before our stories
−2.0% did not move with itASTE −5.2 · CNH −2.1 · PLOW −1.8 · CAT −1.6
13 May 13, 2026−6.35%
Before our storiesgroup −0.7%, did not move with it
13May 13, 2026−6.35%
Before our stories
−0.7% did not move with itASTE −2.0 · CAT −1.1 · PLOW −0.3 · CNH +0.2
14 May 15, 2026+7.53%
Before our storiesgroup −3.0%, did not move with it
14May 15, 2026+7.53%
Before our stories
−3.0% did not move with itCNH −2.3 · PLOW −2.5 · CAT −3.5 · ASTE −5.7
15 May 19, 2026−9.09%
Before our storiesgroup −1.9%, did not move with it
15May 19, 2026−9.09%
Before our stories
−1.9% did not move with itPLOW −3.0 · CNH −2.6 · ASTE −1.2 · CAT −0.4
16 May 20, 2026+8.50%
Before our storiesgroup +2.3%, did not move with it
16May 20, 2026+8.50%
Before our stories
+2.3% did not move with itASTE +3.8 · PLOW +2.3 · CNH +2.3 · CAT +1.4
17 Aug 14, 2026−7.16%
Nothing on AEBIgroup +0.7%, did not move with it
17Aug 14, 2026−7.16%
Nothing on AEBINo AEBI story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+0.7% did not move with itCAT +0.2 · CNH +0.5 · PLOW +0.9 · ASTE +2.2
18 Sep 2, 2026+6.22%
Nothing on AEBIgroup +2.5%, did not move with it
18Sep 2, 2026+6.22%
Nothing on AEBINo AEBI story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+2.5% did not move with itCNH +9.2 · ASTE +2.8 · PLOW +2.3 · CAT +1.7

A story on the same day is not a cause, and a group move is not proof either. Group: the median of CAT, CNH, ASTE and PLOW that day, the largest companies in AEBI’s SEC industry; “moved with AEBI” means the same direction and at least half the size.

What’s next · results

Before the next report: what the first day after the last four did

Six trading days after each results filing (SEC 8-K, Item 2.02). AEBI reports before the open, so day 1 is that day’s close. 2 of 4 times, day 6 ended on the same side as day 1.

Reported Nov 13, 2025

day 1+4.38%day 6−1.86%

Reported Mar 19, 2026

day 1−11.99%day 6−28.04%

Reported May 14, 2026

day 1+3.53%day 6+10.12%

Reported Aug 13, 2026

day 1+5.39%day 6−8.31%

Next report: expected mid NovemberEstimated from the dates of its last four results filings. Not announced. Since the Aug 13 report: −14.78%. Four reports is a small sample.

Every report since 2025 →

Each line is AEBI’s close against its close before the filing, on licensed end-of-day closes. What happened after each report, not a forecast; a move on the day is not a cause.

Same industry

AEBI against four same-industry peers, a year at 100

AEBI is up 0.6% in a year. Douglas Dynamics is up 19.7%, CNH Industrial 16.5% and Caterpillar 5.0%. Of these four, only Astec Industries (−21.4%) did less. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, on a log scale, so the same percentage move is the same height on every line.

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AEBI +0.6%. Douglas Dynamics +19.7%, CNH Industrial +16.5%, Caterpillar +5.0%, Astec Industries −21.4%. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, log scale.

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End-of-day closes (Databento EOD), the last close of each week. The four peers are the largest US-listed companies by market value in AEBI’s SEC industry (Construction Machinery & Equip) with a year of closes. It shows what the closes did; a move here is not a cause, a forecast or a call.

The Wire at 7 AM ET, free. Top stories with a bull and a bear case on each, every morning. No account needed.

CAT	Caterpillar	$271.8B	−6.37%
CNH	CNH Industrial	$14.5B	−3.93%
ASTE	Astec Industries	$905M	−10.03%
PLOW	Douglas Dynamics	$880M	−3.38%
MTW	Manitowoc	$837M	−6.59%
CMCO	Columbus Mckinnon	$536M	−11.08%
GENC	Gencor Industries	$257M	−4.73%