Caterpillar CAT

NYSE · Construction Machinery & Equip · $271.8B

$553.64−6.37%Nov 5 close · Databento

Every report since 2023 →

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CAT Wire Story Reactions & EOD Technical StudyDaily closes (Databento EOD) pinned with every AlgoThesis Wire story (dot colour = next trading day close) and SEC filing

Nov 5, 2026CLOSE $553.641D −6.37%3M −33.90%SMA20 $697.09SMA50 $765.51RSI(14) 19.5

553.64

RSI (14, Wilder EOD) · 70 Overbought / 30 OversoldRSI 19.5

Data provided by Databento (end of day). Next close = the first close after a story against the close before it; official daily closes only, not a call, not advice.

The numbers

fiscal 2025, as filed with the SEC · 66-metric EOD snapshot via Databento

Market cap$271.8B

EV / True FCF33.7x

Revenue$67.6B +4.3%

True FCF (ex-SBC)$8.7B −11.2%

Rule of 4017.5%

ROIC20.2%

True FCF Yield3.2%

EPS, diluted$18.81 −14.7%

Modern Valuation (EOD)

Market Cap$271.8B

Enterprise Value$292.5B

EV / True FCF33.72

EV / FCF32.80

EV / Gross Profit—

EV / EBIT26.23

EV / Sales4.33

P / E (GAAP)30.59

P / FCF30.48

P / Oper. CF23.15

P / Book12.75

Owner & Cash Yields

True FCF Yield3.2%

FCF Yield3.3%

Owner Earn. Yield3.0%

Earnings Yield3.3%

Shareholder Yield+2.8%

Buyback Yield1.9%

Dividend Yield1.07%

Dividend / sh$5.94

Payout Ratio31%

FCF / sh$19.49

EPS (diluted)$18.81

Compounder & Returns

Rule of 4017.5%

ROIC20.2%

Cash ROIC (CROIC)21.2%

GP / Assets—

ROE41.7%

ROA9.0%

Gross Margin—

Oper. Margin16.5%

Net Margin13.1%

FCF Margin13.2%

True FCF Margin12.8%

Quality & Dilution

Cash Conversion100%

Accrual Ratio−2.9%

SBC % of FCF2.7%

SBC % of Rev0.4%

Reinvest. Rate42%

Sales Growth Y/Y+4.3%

Sales 3Y CAGR+4.4%

EPS Growth Y/Y−14.7%

FCF Growth Y/Y−11.2%

FCF 3Y CAGR+11.3%

Share Change Y/Y−3.5%

Balance Sheet & Scale

Revenue (FY)$67.6B

Gross Profit (FY)—

Oper. Income (FY)$11.2B

GAAP Net Income$8.9B

True FCF (ex-SBC)$8.7B

Cash & Equiv$10.0B

Total Debt$30.7B

Net Cash (Debt)$-20.7B

Net Cash % MCap−7.6%

Debt / FCF (yrs)3.4y

Current Ratio1.44457.59M sh

Price & Technicals (EOD)

Perf Week−14.48%

Perf Month−31.97%

Perf Quarter−34.26%

Perf Half Y−38.19%

Perf YTD−30.66%

SMA 20 Dist−20.58%$697.09

SMA 50 Dist−27.68%$765.51

SMA 100 Dist−33.50%$832.55

Window High−48.01%$1,064.90

Window Low0.00%$553.64

RSI (14) · Vol19.550%v

Income Distribution & Cash Flow ConversionHow every dollar of CAT revenue flows through cost of goods, operating expenses, taxes, GAAP net income, and dilution-adjusted free cash flow

Where Every $100 of Revenue Goes (FY2025)

Cost of Revenue (COGS)$49.0M ($0.1 / $100)

R&D Reinvestment$2.1B ($3.2 / $100)

SG&A & Other OpEx$54.2B ($80.3 / $100)

Tax & Non-Operating$2.3B ($3.4 / $100)

Net Profit Kept$8.9B ($13.1 / $100)

Earnings Quality: GAAP Profit → True Owner Cash (FY2025)

GAAP Net Income$8.9B (13.1% margin)

Operating Cash Flow (OCF)$11.7B(17.4% of rev)

Less: Capital Expenditures−$2.8B(4.2% of rev)

Standard Free Cash Flow (FCF)$8.9B(13.2% margin)

Less: Stock-Based Comp (SBC)−$242.0M(2.7% of FCF)

True FCF (Owner Cash ex-SBC)$8.7B(12.8% of rev)

Revenue by fiscal year

Operating leverage — margins

GrossOperatingNet

Line Item (USD)	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	YoY Δ	4Y CAGR
Income Statement
Revenue	$51.0B	$59.4B	$67.1B	$64.8B	$67.6B	+4.3%	+7.3%
Cost of Revenue (COGS)	$35.5B	$413.0M	$160.0M	$33.0M	$49.0M	+48.5%	−80.7%
Research & Development (R&D)	$1.7B	$1.8B	$2.1B	$2.1B	$2.1B	+1.9%	+6.2%
Selling, General & Admin (SG&A)	$5.4B	$5.7B	$6.4B	$6.7B	$7.0B	+4.8%	+6.8%
Operating Income (EBIT)	$6.9B	$7.9B	$13.0B	$13.1B	$11.2B	−14.7%	+12.8%
Income Tax Expense	$1.7B	$2.1B	$2.8B	$2.6B	$2.8B	+5.3%	+12.3%
GAAP Net Income	$6.5B	$6.7B	$10.3B	$10.8B	$8.9B	−17.7%	+8.2%
Diluted EPS	$11.83	$12.64	$20.12	$22.05	$18.81	−14.7%	+12.3%
Diluted Shares	548.5M	530.4M	513.6M	489.4M	472.3M	−3.5%	−3.7%
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalents	$9.3B	$7.0B	$7.0B	$6.9B	$10.0B	+44.8%	+1.9%
Inventory	$14.0B	$16.3B	$16.6B	$16.8B	$18.1B	+7.8%	+6.6%
Total Current Assets	$43.5B	$43.8B	$46.9B	$45.7B	$52.5B	+14.9%	+4.8%
Total Assets	$82.8B	$81.9B	$87.5B	$87.8B	$98.6B	+12.3%	+4.5%
Total Current Liabilities	$29.8B	$31.5B	$34.7B	$32.3B	$36.6B	+13.3%	+5.2%
Total Debt (Short + Long Term)	$26.0B	$25.7B	$24.5B	$27.4B	$30.7B	+12.2%	+4.2%
Total Liabilities	$66.3B	$66.1B	$68.0B	$68.3B	$77.3B	+13.2%	+3.9%
Stockholders' Equity	$16.5B	$15.9B	$19.5B	$19.5B	$21.3B	+9.4%	+6.6%
Net Cash / (Net Debt)	$-16.8B	$-18.7B	$-17.5B	$-20.5B	$-20.7B	−1.2%	—
Invested Capital	$33.3B	$34.6B	$37.0B	$39.9B	$42.0B	+5.2%	+6.0%
Cash Flow & Capital Allocation
Operating Cash Flow (OCF)	$7.2B	$7.8B	$12.9B	$12.0B	$11.7B	−2.5%	+13.0%
Depreciation & Amortization (D&A)	$2.4B	$2.2B	$2.1B	$2.2B	$2.3B	+5.1%	−1.0%
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)	$200.0M	$193.0M	$208.0M	$223.0M	$242.0M	+8.5%	+4.9%
Capital Expenditures (CapEx)	$1.1B	$1.3B	$1.6B	$2.0B	$2.8B	+41.9%	+26.7%
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	$6.1B	$6.5B	$11.3B	$10.0B	$8.9B	−11.2%	+9.9%
True FCF (ex-SBC Owner Cash)	$5.9B	$6.3B	$11.1B	$9.8B	$8.7B	−11.7%	+10.1%
Share Repurchases (Buybacks)	$2.7B	$4.2B	$5.0B	$7.7B	$5.2B	−32.6%	+18.1%
Dividends Paid	$2.3B	$2.4B	$2.6B	$2.6B	$2.7B	+3.9%	+4.2%

Fundamentals, income distribution and multi-year statements from SEC EDGAR filings (public domain). Valuation multiples, performance and technicals computed from Databento 1D EOD closes. For information only, not investment advice.

On the Wire

what CAT did at the next close after each story

No Wire story has named CAT yet.

What happened · big days

22 big days in a year, and what we hold on each

A big day is a close more than 4.37% from the one before, three times CAT’s median day (1.46%). On 12 of the 22, its peer group moved the same way at least half as far. We show what we hold. We never name a cause.

every other trading daya big day, numbered in the list below±4.37%Hover a bar for its day. Click a big day to open it.

Shaded: since our stories began, Jun 10. Tap a bar for its day.

#DayCATWhat we hold that dayGroup (median of 4) · each

1 Dec 12, 2025−4.43%
Before our storiesgroup −0.3%, did not move with it
1Dec 12, 2025−4.43%
Before our stories
−0.3% did not move with itASTE −1.3 · PLOW −0.4 · CNH −0.2 · AEBI −0.1
2 Dec 17, 2025−4.59%
Before our storiesgroup −0.7%, did not move with it
2Dec 17, 2025−4.59%
Before our stories
−0.7% did not move with itAEBI −0.9 · ASTE −0.7 · PLOW −0.6 · CNH −0.5
3 Jan 2, 2026+4.46%
Before our storiesgroup +1.2%, did not move with it
3Jan 2, 2026+4.46%
Before our stories
+1.2% did not move with itASTE +3.0 · CNH +1.4 · PLOW +1.0 · AEBI −0.5
4 Feb 2, 2026+5.10%
Before our storiesgroup +2.8%, moved with CAT
4Feb 2, 2026+5.10%
Before our stories
+2.8% moved with CATASTE +4.4 · AEBI +3.4 · PLOW +2.2 · CNH +1.9
5 Feb 6, 2026+7.06%
Before our storiesgroup +4.3%, moved with CAT
5Feb 6, 2026+7.06%
Before our stories
+4.3% moved with CATAEBI +6.8 · ASTE +5.0 · CNH +3.6 · PLOW +2.3
6 Feb 11, 2026+4.40%
Before our storiesgroup +2.4%, moved with CAT
6Feb 11, 2026+4.40%
Before our stories
+2.4% moved with CATCNH +3.3 · ASTE +2.9 · PLOW +1.9 · AEBI +1.0
7 Mar 31, 2026+6.15%
Before our storiesgroup +3.8%, moved with CAT
7Mar 31, 2026+6.15%
Before our stories
+3.8% moved with CATCNH +5.8 · ASTE +4.6 · AEBI +3.1 · PLOW +1.7
8 Apr 8, 2026+6.51%
Before our storiesgroup +6.6%, moved with CAT
8Apr 8, 2026+6.51%
Before our stories
+6.6% moved with CATAEBI +10.2 · CNH +6.8 · ASTE +6.5 · PLOW +6.3
9 Apr 30, 2026+9.88%
Resultsgroup +5.2%, moved with CAT
9Apr 30, 2026+9.88%
ResultsFirst close after the Apr 30 results filing
+5.2% moved with CATCNH +6.3 · ASTE +6.0 · PLOW +4.4 · AEBI +4.2
10 Jun 2, 2026+5.14%
Before our storiesgroup +3.8%, moved with CAT
10Jun 2, 2026+5.14%
Before our stories
+3.8% moved with CATCNH +11.2 · ASTE +4.6 · PLOW +3.0 · AEBI −1.7
11 Jun 10, 2026−6.40%
Nothing on CATgroup −3.3%, moved with CAT
11Jun 10, 2026−6.40%
Nothing on CATNo CAT story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−3.3% moved with CATCNH −5.2 · ASTE −4.3 · AEBI −2.3 · PLOW +0.0
12 Jun 11, 2026+4.84%
Nothing on CATgroup +1.7%, did not move with it
12Jun 11, 2026+4.84%
Nothing on CATNo CAT story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+1.7% did not move with itAEBI +2.5 · CNH +1.8 · ASTE +1.7 · PLOW +1.6
13 Jun 25, 2026+6.29%
Nothing on CATgroup +5.3%, moved with CAT
13Jun 25, 2026+6.29%
Nothing on CATNo CAT story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+5.3% moved with CATPLOW +6.4 · CNH +6.0 · ASTE +4.5 · AEBI +3.4
14 Jun 26, 2026−5.63%
Nothing on CATgroup −0.1%, did not move with it
14Jun 26, 2026−5.63%
Nothing on CATNo CAT story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−0.1% did not move with itASTE −1.1 · AEBI −0.9 · PLOW +0.7 · CNH +0.9
15 Jul 1, 2026−6.90%
Nothing on CATgroup −2.3%, did not move with it
15Jul 1, 2026−6.90%
Nothing on CATNo CAT story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−2.3% did not move with itPLOW −3.1 · CNH −2.8 · ASTE −1.8 · AEBI −1.7
16 Jul 29, 2026−6.91%
Nothing on CATgroup −5.5%, moved with CAT
16Jul 29, 2026−6.91%
Nothing on CATNo CAT story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−5.5% moved with CATASTE −7.1 · CNH −5.9 · PLOW −5.0 · AEBI −4.8
17 Aug 4, 2026+5.60%
Resultsgroup +2.2%, did not move with it
17Aug 4, 2026+5.60%
ResultsFirst close after the Aug 4 results filing
+2.2% did not move with itPLOW +6.1 · CNH +3.9 · AEBI +0.5 · ASTE −0.6
18 Aug 18, 2026−4.63%
Nothing on CATgroup −2.5%, moved with CAT
18Aug 18, 2026−4.63%
Nothing on CATNo CAT story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−2.5% moved with CATASTE −4.3 · AEBI −2.6 · CNH −2.5 · PLOW −1.2
19 Oct 7, 2026−5.75%
Nothing on CATgroup −4.1%, moved with CAT
19Oct 7, 2026−5.75%
Nothing on CATNo CAT story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−4.1% moved with CATCNH −6.1 · ASTE −5.0 · AEBI −3.3 · PLOW −2.3
20 Oct 22, 2026−4.89%
Nothing on CATgroup −0.7%, did not move with it
20Oct 22, 2026−4.89%
Nothing on CATNo CAT story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−0.7% did not move with itASTE −1.7 · PLOW −1.1 · AEBI −0.4 · CNH +0.5
21 Oct 29, 2026−9.25%
Resultsgroup +1.4%, did not move with it
21Oct 29, 2026−9.25%
ResultsFirst close after the Oct 29 results filing
+1.4% did not move with itPLOW +0.3 · AEBI +0.3 · ASTE +2.4 · CNH +2.6
22 Nov 4, 2026−5.23%
Nothing on CATgroup +0.3%, did not move with it
22Nov 4, 2026−5.23%
Nothing on CATNo CAT story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+0.3% did not move with itASTE −1.9 · CNH −0.2 · AEBI +0.7 · PLOW +4.0

A story on the same day is not a cause, and a group move is not proof either. Group: the median of CNH, ASTE, AEBI and PLOW that day, the largest companies in CAT’s SEC industry; “moved with CAT” means the same direction and at least half the size.

What’s next · results

Before the next report: what the first day after the last four did

Six trading days after each results filing (SEC 8-K, Item 2.02). CAT reports before the open, so day 1 is that day’s close. Each time, day 6 ended on the same side as day 1.

Reported Oct 29, 2025

day 1+11.63%day 6+8.52%

Reported Jan 29, 2026

day 1+3.41%day 6+5.45%

Reported Apr 30, 2026

day 1+9.88%day 6+10.57%

Reported Aug 4, 2026

day 1+5.60%day 6+1.61%

Next report: expected late JanuaryEstimated from the dates of its last four results filings. Not announced. Since the Oct 29 report: −17.11%. Four reports is a small sample.

Every report since 2023 →

Each line is CAT’s close against its close before the filing, on licensed end-of-day closes. What happened after each report, not a forecast; a move on the day is not a cause.

Same industry

CAT against four same-industry peers, a year at 100

CAT is up 5.0% in a year. Douglas Dynamics is up 23.9%, CNH Industrial 21.2% and Aebi Schmidt 5.7%. Of these four, only Astec Industries (−12.7%) did less. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, on a log scale, so the same percentage move is the same height on every line.

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CAT +5.0%. Douglas Dynamics +23.9%, CNH Industrial +21.2%, Aebi Schmidt +5.7%, Astec Industries −12.7%. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, log scale.

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End-of-day closes (Databento EOD), the last close of each week. The four peers are the largest US-listed companies by market value in CAT’s SEC industry (Construction Machinery & Equip) with a year of closes. It shows what the closes did; a move here is not a cause, a forecast or a call.

The Wire at 7 AM ET, free. Top stories with a bull and a bear case on each, every morning. No account needed.

CNH	CNH Industrial	$14.5B	−3.93%
ASTE	Astec Industries	$905M	−10.03%
AEBI	Aebi Schmidt	$903M	−4.82%
PLOW	Douglas Dynamics	$880M	−3.38%
MTW	Manitowoc	$837M	−6.59%
CMCO	Columbus Mckinnon	$536M	−11.08%
GENC	Gencor Industries	$257M	−4.73%