MTW Wire Story Reactions & EOD Technical StudyDaily closes (Databento EOD) pinned with every AlgoThesis Wire story (dot colour = next trading day close) and SEC filing
Nov 5, 2026CLOSE $21.671D −6.59%3M +14.72%SMA20 $22.52SMA50 $21.84RSI(14) 44.6
Data provided by Databento (end of day). Next close = the first close after a story against the close before it; official daily closes only, not a call, not advice.
The numbers
fiscal 2025, as filed with the SEC · 66-metric EOD snapshot via Databento
Market cap$837M
Enterprise value$1.2B
Revenue$2.2B +2.9%
True FCF (ex-SBC)$-24.8M −537.1%
Rule of 402.2%
ROIC2.8%
True FCF Yield-3.0%
EPS, diluted$0.20 −87.2%
Modern Valuation (EOD)
Market Cap$837M
Enterprise Value$1.2B
EV / True FCF—
EV / FCF—
EV / Gross Profit3.06
EV / EBIT23.02
EV / Sales0.55
P / E (GAAP)116.20
P / FCF—
P / Oper. CF37.69
P / Book1.20
Owner & Cash Yields
True FCF Yield-3.0%
FCF Yield-1.8%
Owner Earn. Yield2.4%
Earnings Yield0.9%
Shareholder Yield−1.1%
Buyback Yield0.0%
Dividend Yield—
Dividend / sh$0.00
Payout Ratio0%
FCF / sh$-0.42
EPS (diluted)$0.20
Compounder & Returns
Rule of 402.2%
ROIC2.8%
Cash ROIC (CROIC)-1.4%
GP / Assets22.3%
ROE1.0%
ROA0.4%
Gross Margin18.1%
Oper. Margin2.4%
Net Margin0.3%
FCF Margin-0.7%
True FCF Margin-1.1%
Quality & Dilution
Cash Conversion-213%
Accrual Ratio−0.8%
SBC % of FCF—
SBC % of Rev0.4%
Reinvest. Rate420%
Sales Growth Y/Y+2.9%
Sales 3Y CAGR+3.3%
EPS Growth Y/Y−87.2%
FCF Growth Y/Y−537.1%
FCF 3Y CAGR—
Share Change Y/Y+1.1%
Balance Sheet & Scale
Revenue (FY)$2.2B
Gross Profit (FY)$404.7M
Oper. Income (FY)$53.8M
GAAP Net Income$7.2M
True FCF (ex-SBC)$-24.8M
Cash & Equiv$77.3M
Total Debt$478.9M
Net Cash (Debt)$-401.6M
Net Cash % MCap−48.0%
Debt / FCF (yrs)—
Current Ratio2.2336.11M sh
Price & Technicals (EOD)
Perf Week−8.95%
Perf Month−1.72%
Perf Quarter+15.20%
Perf Half Y+59.10%
Perf YTD+68.11%
SMA 20 Dist−3.79%$22.52
SMA 50 Dist−0.79%$21.84
SMA 100 Dist+17.05%$18.51
Window High−8.95%$23.80
Window Low+90.93%$11.35
RSI (14) · Vol44.642%v
Income Distribution & Cash Flow ConversionHow every dollar of MTW revenue flows through cost of goods, operating expenses, taxes, GAAP net income, and dilution-adjusted free cash flow
Standard Free Cash Flow (FCF)$-15.3M(-0.7% margin)
Less: Stock-Based Comp (SBC)−$9.5M
True FCF (Owner Cash ex-SBC)$-24.8M(-1.1% of rev)
Revenue by fiscal year
$1.7BFY21
$2.0BFY22
$2.2BFY23
$2.2BFY24
$2.2BFY25
Operating leverage — margins
GrossOperatingNet
Unlocked SEC EDGAR Accounting Statements (USD)All 3 statements · Common-size (% of Revenue / Assets) · YoY growth · Tap any core row to explain
Line Item (USD)
FY2021
FY2022
FY2023
FY2024
FY2025
YoY Δ
4Y CAGR
Trend
Income Statement
Revenue ▸
$1.7B
$2.0B
$2.2B
$2.2B
$2.2B
+2.9%
+6.8%
Cost of Revenue (COGS)
$1.4B
$1.7B
$1.8B
$1.8B
$1.8B
+1.8%
+6.8%
Gross Profit ▸
$307.2M
$364.5M
$425.2M
$375.0M
$404.7M
+7.9%
+7.1%
Research & Development (R&D)
$29.1M
$33.5M
$35.3M
$41.1M
$55.8M
+35.8%
+17.7%
Total Operating Expenses
$260.7M
$457.5M
$332.8M
$323.2M
$350.9M
+8.6%
+7.7%
Operating Income (EBIT) ▸
$46.5M
$-93.0M
$92.4M
$51.8M
$53.8M
+3.9%
+3.7%
Interest Expense
—
—
—
—
$39.1M
—
—
Income Tax Expense
$6.1M
$3.4M
$5.0M
$-44.1M
$5.2M
+111.8%
−3.9%
GAAP Net Income ▸
$11.0M
$-123.6M
$39.2M
$55.8M
$7.2M
−87.1%
−10.1%
Diluted EPS ▸
$0.31
$-3.51
$1.09
$1.56
$0.20
−87.2%
−10.4%
Diluted Shares
35.5M
35.2M
36.0M
35.7M
36.1M
+1.1%
+0.4%
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalents
$75.4M
$64.4M
$34.4M
$48.0M
$77.3M
+61.0%
+0.6%
Inventory
$576.8M
$611.9M
$666.5M
$609.4M
$683.9M
+12.2%
+4.3%
Total Current Assets
$941.8M
$998.5M
$1.0B
$958.9M
$1.1B
+14.4%
+3.9%
Total Assets
$1.8B
$1.6B
$1.7B
$1.7B
$1.8B
+9.5%
+0.6%
Total Current Liabilities
$521.0M
$547.8M
$563.3M
$474.3M
$491.6M
+3.6%
−1.4%
Total Debt (Short + Long Term)
$417.6M
$394.1M
$387.1M
$408.5M
$478.9M
+17.2%
+3.5%
Stockholders' Equity
$662.4M
$537.8M
$603.3M
$640.1M
$695.2M
+8.6%
+1.2%
Net Cash / (Net Debt)
$-342.2M
$-329.7M
$-352.7M
$-360.5M
$-401.6M
−11.4%
—
Invested Capital
$1.0B
$867.5M
$956.0M
$1.0B
$1.1B
+9.6%
+2.2%
Cash Flow & Capital Allocation
Operating Cash Flow (OCF) ▸
$76.2M
$76.9M
$63.0M
$49.2M
$22.2M
−54.9%
−26.5%
Depreciation & Amortization (D&A)
$45.5M
$57.7M
$56.6M
$59.8M
$59.9M
+0.2%
+7.1%
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)
$7.1M
$8.5M
$11.5M
$10.9M
$9.5M
−12.8%
+7.6%
Capital Expenditures (CapEx)
$40.4M
$61.8M
$77.4M
$45.7M
$37.5M
−17.9%
−1.8%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) ▸
$35.8M
$15.1M
$-14.4M
$3.5M
$-15.3M
−537.1%
—
True FCF (ex-SBC Owner Cash)
$28.7M
$6.6M
$-25.9M
$-7.4M
$-24.8M
−235.1%
—
Share Repurchases (Buybacks)
$0
$3.0M
$5.5M
$5.7M
$0
−100.0%
—
Dividends Paid
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
—
—
Fundamentals, income distribution and multi-year statements from SEC EDGAR filings (public domain). Valuation multiples, performance and technicals computed from Databento 1D EOD closes. For information only, not investment advice.
On the Wire
what MTW did at the next close after each story
No Wire story has named MTW yet.
The Wire at 7 AM ET, free. Top stories with a bull and a bear case on each, every morning. No account needed.
What happened · big days
10 big days in a year, and what we hold on each
A big day is a close more than 5.87% from the one before, three times MTW’s median day (1.96%). On 5 of the 10, its peer group moved the same way at least half as far. We show what we hold. We never name a cause.
every other trading daya big day, numbered in the list below±5.87%Hover a bar for its day. Click a big day to open it.
Shaded: since our stories began, Jun 10. Tap a bar for its day.
#DayMTWWhat we hold that dayGroup (median of 4) · each
1 Nov 6, 2025+9.02%
Resultsgroup +0.1%, did not move with it
1Nov 6, 2025+9.02%
ResultsFirst close after the Nov 5 results filing
+0.1% did not move with itASTE +0.5 · AEBI +0.2 · CAT +0.1 · CNH −2.0
2 Nov 17, 2025−5.94%
Before our storiesgroup −2.9%, did not move with it
2Nov 17, 2025−5.94%
Before our stories
−2.9% did not move with itASTE −3.2 · CNH −2.9 · AEBI −2.9 · CAT −0.4
3 Feb 12, 2026−7.52%
Before our storiesgroup −1.7%, did not move with it
3Feb 12, 2026−7.52%
Before our stories
−1.7% did not move with itAEBI −4.1 · CAT −2.2 · ASTE −1.3 · CNH −0.9
4 Apr 8, 2026+8.23%
Before our storiesgroup +6.7%, moved with MTW
4Apr 8, 2026+8.23%
Before our stories
+6.7% moved with MTWAEBI +10.2 · CNH +6.8 · CAT +6.5 · ASTE +6.5
5 May 5, 2026+6.38%
Before our storiesgroup +2.6%, did not move with it
5May 5, 2026+6.38%
Before our stories
+2.6% did not move with itAEBI +5.1 · CAT +3.4 · ASTE +1.9 · CNH +1.0
6 Jun 25, 2026+7.35%
Nothing on MTWgroup +5.3%, moved with MTW
6Jun 25, 2026+7.35%
Nothing on MTWNo MTW story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+5.3% moved with MTWCAT +6.3 · CNH +6.0 · ASTE +4.5 · AEBI +3.4
7 Jul 29, 2026−6.88%
Nothing on MTWgroup −6.4%, moved with MTW
7Jul 29, 2026−6.88%
Nothing on MTWNo MTW story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−6.4% moved with MTWASTE −7.1 · CAT −6.9 · CNH −5.9 · AEBI −4.8
8 Aug 7, 2026+32.37%
Resultsgroup +0.4%, did not move with it
8Aug 7, 2026+32.37%
ResultsFirst close after the Aug 6 results filing
+0.4% did not move with itAEBI +1.4 · CNH +0.6 · ASTE +0.2 · CAT −1.7
9 Sep 2, 2026+6.65%
Nothing on MTWgroup +4.5%, moved with MTW
9Sep 2, 2026+6.65%
Nothing on MTWNo MTW story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+4.5% moved with MTWCNH +9.2 · AEBI +6.2 · ASTE +2.8 · CAT +1.7
10 Nov 5, 2026−6.59%
Nothing on MTWgroup −4.8%, moved with MTW
10Nov 5, 2026−6.59%
Nothing on MTWNo MTW story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−4.8% moved with MTWASTE −10.0 · AEBI −4.8 · CNH −3.9
A story on the same day is not a cause, and a group move is not proof either. Group: the median of CAT, CNH, ASTE and AEBI that day, the largest companies in MTW’s SEC industry; “moved with MTW” means the same direction and at least half the size.
What’s next · results
Before the next report: what the first day after the last four did
Six trading days after each results filing (SEC 8-K, Item 2.02). MTW reports after the close, so day 1 is the next close. 3 of 4 times, day 6 ended on the same side as day 1.
Reported Nov 5, 2025
day 1+9.02%day 6+12.03%
Reported Feb 9, 2026
day 1+1.95%day 6−3.90%
Reported May 5, 2026
day 1−2.85%day 6−7.32%
Reported Aug 6, 2026
day 1+32.37%day 6+45.53%
Next report: expected early FebruaryEstimated from the dates of its last four results filings. Not announced. Since the Nov 3 report: −8.95%. Four reports is a small sample.
Each line is MTW’s close against its close before the filing, on licensed end-of-day closes. What happened after each report, not a forecast; a move on the day is not a cause.
Same industry
MTW against four same-industry peers, a year at 100
MTW is up 98.1% in a year. All four did less: CNH Industrial (+16.5%), Caterpillar (+5.0%), Aebi Schmidt (+0.6%) and Astec Industries (−21.4%). Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, on a log scale, so the same percentage move is the same height on every line.
End-of-day closes (Databento EOD), the last close of each week. The four peers are the largest US-listed companies by market value in MTW’s SEC industry (Construction Machinery & Equip) with a year of closes. It shows what the closes did; a move here is not a cause, a forecast or a call.