American Express AXP

NYSE · Finance Services · $224.6B

$324.97−2.29%Nov 5 close · Databento

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AXP Wire Story Reactions & EOD Technical StudyDaily closes (Databento EOD) pinned with every AlgoThesis Wire story (dot colour = next trading day close) and SEC filing

Nov 5, 2026CLOSE $324.971D −2.29%3M −4.10%SMA20 $318.02SMA50 $316.51RSI(14) 55.6

324.97

RSI (14, Wilder EOD) · 70 Overbought / 30 OversoldRSI 55.6

Data provided by Databento (end of day). Next close = the first close after a story against the close before it; official daily closes only, not a call, not advice.

1 story has a settled next close so far (1 on the Wire). The record starts speaking at three.

The numbers

fiscal 2025, as filed with the SEC · 66-metric EOD snapshot via Databento

Market cap$224.6B

EV / True FCF15.1x

Revenue$72.2B +9.5%

True FCF (ex-SBC)$15.5B +31.8%

Rule of 4031.7%

ROIC5.3%

True FCF Yield6.9%

EPS, diluted$15.38 +9.8%

Modern Valuation (EOD)

Market Cap$224.6B

Enterprise Value$233.2B

EV / True FCF15.09

EV / FCF14.57

EV / Gross Profit—

EV / EBIT82.08

EV / Sales3.23

P / E (GAAP)20.73

P / FCF14.03

P / Oper. CF12.19

P / Book6.71

Owner & Cash Yields

True FCF Yield6.9%

FCF Yield7.1%

Owner Earn. Yield3.5%

Earnings Yield4.8%

Shareholder Yield+3.4%

Buyback Yield2.6%

Dividend Yield1.01%

Dividend / sh$3.28

Payout Ratio21%

FCF / sh$23.87

EPS (diluted)$15.38

Compounder & Returns

Rule of 4031.7%

ROIC5.3%

Cash ROIC (CROIC)38.0%

GP / Assets—

ROE32.4%

ROA3.6%

Gross Margin—

Oper. Margin3.9%

Net Margin15.0%

FCF Margin22.2%

True FCF Margin21.4%

Quality & Dilution

Cash Conversion148%

Accrual Ratio−2.5%

SBC % of FCF3.4%

SBC % of Rev0.8%

Reinvest. Rate13%

Sales Growth Y/Y+9.5%

Sales 3Y CAGR+11.0%

EPS Growth Y/Y+9.8%

FCF Growth Y/Y+31.8%

FCF 3Y CAGR−5.9%

Share Change Y/Y−2.4%

Balance Sheet & Scale

Revenue (FY)$72.2B

Gross Profit (FY)—

Oper. Income (FY)$2.8B

GAAP Net Income$10.8B

True FCF (ex-SBC)$15.5B

Cash & Equiv$47.8B

Total Debt$56.4B

Net Cash (Debt)$-8.6B

Net Cash % MCap−3.8%

Debt / FCF (yrs)3.5y

Current Ratio—670.55M sh

Price & Technicals (EOD)

Perf Week+0.39%

Perf Month+6.81%

Perf Quarter−4.68%

Perf Half Y+1.97%

Perf YTD−1.49%

SMA 20 Dist+2.18%$318.02

SMA 50 Dist+2.67%$316.51

SMA 100 Dist−1.44%$329.70

Window High−10.12%$361.57

Window Low+8.12%$300.57

RSI (14) · Vol55.626%v

Income Distribution & Cash Flow ConversionHow every dollar of AXP revenue flows through cost of goods, operating expenses, taxes, GAAP net income, and dilution-adjusted free cash flow

Where Every $100 of Revenue Goes (FY2025)

Cost of Revenue (COGS)$0 ($0.0 / $100)

Operating Expenses$69.4B ($96.1 / $100)

Tax & Non-Operating$0 ($0.0 / $100)

Net Profit Kept$10.8B ($3.9 / $100)

Earnings Quality: GAAP Profit → True Owner Cash (FY2025)

GAAP Net Income$10.8B (15.0% margin)

Operating Cash Flow (OCF)$18.4B(25.5% of rev)

Less: Capital Expenditures−$2.4B(3.4% of rev)

Standard Free Cash Flow (FCF)$16.0B(22.2% margin)

Less: Stock-Based Comp (SBC)−$551.0M(3.4% of FCF)

True FCF (Owner Cash ex-SBC)$15.5B(21.4% of rev)

Revenue by fiscal year

Operating leverage — margins

GrossOperatingNet

Line Item (USD)	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	YoY Δ	4Y CAGR
Income Statement
Revenue	$42.4B	$52.9B	$60.5B	$65.9B	$72.2B	+9.5%	+14.3%
Operating Income (EBIT)	—	—	—	—	$2.8B	—	—
Interest Expense	$1.3B	$2.8B	$6.8B	—	$6.8B	—	+52.0%
Income Tax Expense	$2.6B	$2.1B	$2.1B	$2.8B	$3.0B	+7.1%	+3.0%
GAAP Net Income	$8.1B	$7.5B	$8.4B	$10.1B	$10.8B	+7.0%	+7.7%
Diluted EPS	$10.02	$9.85	$11.21	$14.01	$15.38	+9.8%	+11.3%
Diluted Shares	790.0M	752.0M	736.0M	713.0M	696.0M	−2.4%	−3.1%
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalents	$22.0B	$33.9B	$46.6B	$40.6B	$47.8B	+17.6%	+21.4%
Total Assets	$189.0B	$228.4B	$261.1B	$271.5B	$300.1B	+10.5%	+12.2%
Total Debt (Short + Long Term)	$38.7B	$42.6B	$47.9B	$49.7B	$56.4B	+13.4%	+9.9%
Total Liabilities	$166.4B	$203.6B	$233.1B	$241.2B	$266.6B	+10.5%	+12.5%
Stockholders' Equity	$22.2B	$24.7B	$28.1B	$30.3B	$33.5B	+10.6%	+10.8%
Net Cash / (Net Debt)	$-16.6B	$-8.7B	$-1.3B	$-9.1B	$-8.6B	+5.3%	—
Invested Capital	$38.8B	$33.4B	$29.3B	$39.3B	$42.1B	+6.9%	+2.0%
Cash Flow & Capital Allocation
Operating Cash Flow (OCF)	$14.6B	$21.1B	$18.6B	$14.1B	$18.4B	+31.2%	+5.9%
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)	$330.0M	$375.0M	$450.0M	$504.0M	$551.0M	+9.3%	+13.7%
Capital Expenditures (CapEx)	$1.6B	$1.9B	$1.6B	$1.9B	$2.4B	+26.9%	+11.8%
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	$13.1B	$19.2B	$17.0B	$12.1B	$16.0B	+31.8%	+5.1%
True FCF (ex-SBC Owner Cash)	$12.8B	$18.8B	$16.5B	$11.6B	$15.5B	+32.8%	+4.9%
Share Repurchases (Buybacks)	$7.7B	$3.5B	$3.6B	$6.0B	$5.8B	−3.4%	−6.6%
Dividends Paid	$1.4B	$1.6B	$1.8B	$2.0B	$2.3B	+13.6%	+11.9%

Fundamentals, income distribution and multi-year statements from SEC EDGAR filings (public domain). Valuation multiples, performance and technicals computed from Databento 1D EOD closes. For information only, not investment advice.

On the Wire

what AXP did at the next close after each story

Oct 8

Fed orders American Express to fix money-laundering control failures

Federal Reserve · 4:30 PM ET

+0.02%

What happened · big days

20 big days in a year, and what we hold on each

A big day is a close more than 2.79% from the one before, three times AXP’s median day (0.93%). On 16 of the 20, its peer group moved the same way at least half as far. We show what we hold. We never name a cause.

every other trading daya big day, numbered in the list below±2.79%Hover a bar for its day. Click a big day to open it.

Shaded: since our stories began, Jun 10. Tap a bar for its day.

#DayAXPWhat we hold that dayGroup (median of 4) · each

1 Nov 17, 2025−4.46%
Before our storiesgroup −3.2%, moved with AXP
1Nov 17, 2025−4.46%
Before our stories
−3.2% moved with AXPCOIN −7.1 · SYF −3.6 · SOFI −2.8 · MSTR −2.2
2 Dec 10, 2025+3.20%
Before our storiesgroup +0.1%, did not move with it
2Dec 10, 2025+3.20%
Before our stories
+0.1% did not move with itSYF +4.4 · SOFI +1.0 · COIN −0.8 · MSTR −2.3
3 Jan 12, 2026−4.27%
Before our storiesgroup −1.0%, did not move with it
3Jan 12, 2026−4.27%
Before our stories
−1.0% did not move with itSYF −8.4 · SOFI −2.9 · COIN +0.9 · MSTR +3.1
4 Jan 20, 2026−3.45%
Before our storiesgroup −5.3%, moved with AXP
4Jan 20, 2026−3.45%
Before our stories
−5.3% moved with AXPMSTR −7.8 · COIN −5.6 · SYF −5.1 · SOFI −2.5
5 Feb 12, 2026−3.14%
Before our storiesgroup −4.3%, moved with AXP
5Feb 12, 2026−3.14%
Before our stories
−4.3% moved with AXPCOIN −7.9 · SOFI −6.1 · SYF −2.5 · MSTR −2.4
6 Feb 23, 2026−7.20%
Before our storiesgroup −5.9%, moved with AXP
6Feb 23, 2026−7.20%
Before our stories
−5.9% moved with AXPCOIN −6.5 · SYF −6.1 · MSTR −5.6 · SOFI −4.2
7 Feb 27, 2026−7.88%
Before our storiesgroup −4.8%, moved with AXP
7Feb 27, 2026−7.88%
Before our stories
−4.8% moved with AXPSOFI −7.0 · SYF −6.6 · MSTR −2.9 · COIN −2.9
8 Apr 8, 2026+3.03%
Before our storiesgroup +3.0%, moved with AXP
8Apr 8, 2026+3.03%
Before our stories
+3.0% moved with AXPSYF +4.5 · MSTR +3.7 · SOFI +2.4 · COIN −0.1
9 Apr 13, 2026+3.29%
Before our storiesgroup +3.4%, moved with AXP
9Apr 13, 2026+3.29%
Before our stories
+3.4% moved with AXPSOFI +5.1 · COIN +4.0 · MSTR +2.9 · SYF +1.9
10 Apr 23, 2026−4.31%
Resultsgroup −3.9%, moved with AXP
10Apr 23, 2026−4.31%
ResultsFirst close after the Apr 23 results filing
−3.9% moved with AXPCOIN −4.0 · SOFI −3.9 · MSTR −3.8 · SYF −2.6
11 Jun 3, 2026−3.34%
Before our storiesgroup −6.1%, moved with AXP
11Jun 3, 2026−3.34%
Before our stories
−6.1% moved with AXPMSTR −7.0 · COIN −6.2 · SOFI −6.0 · SYF −3.2
12 Jun 4, 2026+3.98%
Before our storiesgroup +2.5%, moved with AXP
12Jun 4, 2026+3.98%
Before our stories
+2.5% moved with AXPSYF +3.0 · SOFI +2.8 · MSTR +2.2 · COIN +0.6
13 Jun 15, 2026+3.05%
Nothing on AXPgroup +4.5%, moved with AXP
13Jun 15, 2026+3.05%
Nothing on AXPNo AXP story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+4.5% moved with AXPCOIN +6.2 · MSTR +5.8 · SOFI +3.3 · SYF +1.7
14 Jul 1, 2026+2.88%
Nothing on AXPgroup +5.1%, moved with AXP
14Jul 1, 2026+2.88%
Nothing on AXPNo AXP story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+5.1% moved with AXPCOIN +8.9 · MSTR +7.4 · SOFI +2.8 · SYF +0.9
15 Jul 8, 2026−3.77%
Nothing on AXPgroup −3.1%, moved with AXP
15Jul 8, 2026−3.77%
Nothing on AXPNo AXP story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−3.1% moved with AXPSYF −9.6 · MSTR −3.6 · COIN −2.5 · SOFI −0.1
16 Jul 9, 2026+3.07%
Nothing on AXPgroup +2.4%, moved with AXP
16Jul 9, 2026+3.07%
Nothing on AXPNo AXP story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+2.4% moved with AXPSOFI +5.0 · SYF +4.8 · MSTR +0.0 · COIN −0.6
17 Jul 24, 2026−4.30%
Resultsgroup −1.5%, did not move with it
17Jul 24, 2026−4.30%
ResultsFirst close after the Jul 24 results filing
−1.5% did not move with itMSTR −2.1 · COIN −1.8 · SOFI −1.1 · SYF +1.6
18 Jul 27, 2026+2.83%
Nothing on AXPgroup +4.6%, moved with AXP
18Jul 27, 2026+2.83%
Nothing on AXPNo AXP story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+4.6% moved with AXPMSTR +7.6 · COIN +5.8 · SYF +3.3 · SOFI +2.5
19 Sep 16, 2026−3.70%
Nothing on AXPgroup −2.1%, moved with AXP
19Sep 16, 2026−3.70%
Nothing on AXPNo AXP story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−2.1% moved with AXPCOIN −4.4 · MSTR −2.6 · SYF −1.6 · SOFI −1.4
20 Oct 23, 2026−3.68%
Resultsgroup −1.5%, did not move with it
20Oct 23, 2026−3.68%
ResultsFirst close after the Oct 23 results filing
−1.5% did not move with itCOIN −2.7 · SYF −1.9 · SOFI −1.1 · MSTR +0.1

A story on the same day is not a cause, and a group move is not proof either. Group: the median of COIN, MSTR, SYF and SOFI that day, the largest companies in AXP’s SEC industry; “moved with AXP” means the same direction and at least half the size.

What’s next · results

Before the next report: what the first day after the last four did

Six trading days after each results filing (SEC 8-K, Item 2.02). AXP reports before the open, so day 1 is that day’s close. 3 of 4 times, day 6 ended on the same side as day 1.

Reported Jan 30, 2026

day 1−1.77%day 6+0.18%

Reported Apr 23, 2026

day 1−4.31%day 6−2.96%

Reported Jul 24, 2026

day 1−4.30%day 6−1.35%

Reported Oct 23, 2026

day 1−3.68%day 6−1.86%

Next report: expected late JanuaryEstimated from the dates of its last four results filings. Not announced. Since the Oct 23 report: +2.28%. Four reports is a small sample.

Every report since 2023 →

Each line is AXP’s close against its close before the filing, on licensed end-of-day closes. What happened after each report, not a forecast; a move on the day is not a cause.

Same industry

AXP against four same-industry peers, a year at 100

AXP is down 9.8% in a year. Synchrony Financial is up 1.2%. Of these four, SoFi Technologies (−43.1%), Strategy (−46.5%) and Coinbase Global (−55.7%) did less. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, on a log scale, so the same percentage move is the same height on every line.

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AXP −9.8%. Synchrony Financial +1.2%, SoFi Technologies −43.1%, Strategy −46.5%, Coinbase Global −55.7%. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, log scale.

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End-of-day closes (Databento EOD), the last close of each week. The four peers are the largest US-listed companies by market value in AXP’s SEC industry (Finance Services) with a year of closes. It shows what the closes did; a move here is not a cause, a forecast or a call.

The Wire at 7 AM ET, free. Top stories with a bull and a bear case on each, every morning. No account needed.

COIN	Coinbase Global	$43.5B	−9.69%
MSTR	Strategy	$39.6B	−9.29%
SYF	Synchrony Financial	$24.4B	−1.28%
SOFI	SoFi Technologies	$22.4B	−7.71%
BMNR	Bitmine Immersion Technologies	$13.1B	−12.56%
CRCL	Circle Internet	$12.1B	−8.72%
IREN	IREN	$7.8B	−16.95%
CHYM	Chime Financial	$7.1B	+1.04%