Alibaba Group BABA

NYSE · Services-Business Services, Nec · $253.2B

$108.07+2.64%Nov 5 close · Databento

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BABA Wire Story Reactions & EOD Technical StudyDaily closes (Databento EOD) pinned with every AlgoThesis Wire story (dot colour = next trading day close) and SEC filing

Nov 5, 2026CLOSE $108.071D +2.64%3M −18.33%SMA20 $105.09SMA50 $108.43RSI(14) 55.3

108.07

RSI (14, Wilder EOD) · 70 Overbought / 30 OversoldRSI 55.3

Data provided by Databento (end of day). Next close = the first close after a story against the close before it; official daily closes only, not a call, not advice.

1 story has a settled next close so far (1 on the Wire). The record starts speaking at three.

The numbers

fiscal 2026, as filed with the SEC · 66-metric EOD snapshot via Databento

Market cap$253.2B

Enterprise value$229.0B

Revenue$148.4B +8.1%

ROIC4.1%

EPS, diluted$0.80 −13.0%

Modern Valuation (EOD)

Market Cap$253.2B

Enterprise Value$229.0B

EV / True FCF—

EV / FCF—

EV / Gross Profit—

EV / EBIT31.49

EV / Sales1.54

P / E (GAAP)16.86

P / FCF—

P / Oper. CF22.91

P / Book1.56

Owner & Cash Yields

True FCF Yield—

FCF Yield—

Owner Earn. Yield—

Earnings Yield5.9%

Shareholder Yield+1.7%

Buyback Yield0.4%

Dividend Yield—

Dividend / sh—

Payout Ratio33%

FCF / sh—

EPS (diluted)$0.80

Compounder & Returns

Rule of 40—

ROIC4.1%

Cash ROIC (CROIC)—

GP / Assets—

ROE9.3%

ROA5.4%

Gross Margin—

Oper. Margin4.9%

Net Margin10.1%

FCF Margin—

True FCF Margin—

Quality & Dilution

Cash Conversion—

Accrual Ratio+1.4%

SBC % of FCF—

SBC % of Rev1.1%

Reinvest. Rate87%

Sales Growth Y/Y+8.1%

Sales 3Y CAGR+5.5%

EPS Growth Y/Y−13.0%

FCF Growth Y/Y—

FCF 3Y CAGR—

Share Change Y/Y−0.4%

Balance Sheet & Scale

Revenue (FY)$148.4B

Gross Profit (FY)—

Oper. Income (FY)$7.3B

GAAP Net Income$15.0B

True FCF (ex-SBC)—

Cash & Equiv$25.2B

Total Debt$961.0M

Net Cash (Debt)$24.2B

Net Cash % MCap+9.6%

Debt / FCF (yrs)—

Current Ratio1.281.86B sh

Price & Technicals (EOD)

Perf Week+8.57%

Perf Month+1.00%

Perf Quarter−15.84%

Perf Half Y−23.35%

Perf YTD−22.90%

SMA 20 Dist+2.84%$105.09

SMA 50 Dist−0.33%$108.43

SMA 100 Dist−3.15%$111.59

Window High−25.88%$145.81

Window Low+13.99%$94.81

RSI (14) · Vol55.337%v

Income Distribution & Cash Flow ConversionHow every dollar of BABA revenue flows through cost of goods, operating expenses, taxes, GAAP net income, and dilution-adjusted free cash flow

Where Every $100 of Revenue Goes (FY2026)

Cost of Revenue (COGS)$89.3B ($60.2 / $100)

R&D Reinvestment$9.6B ($6.5 / $100)

Operating Expenses$42.2B ($28.4 / $100)

Tax & Non-Operating$0 ($0.0 / $100)

Net Profit Kept$15.0B ($4.9 / $100)

Earnings Quality: GAAP Profit → True Owner Cash (FY2026)

GAAP Net Income$15.0B (10.1% margin)

Operating Cash Flow (OCF)$11.0B(7.4% of rev)

Less: Capital Expenditures—

Standard Free Cash Flow (FCF)—

Less: Stock-Based Comp (SBC)−$1.6B

True FCF (Owner Cash ex-SBC)—

Revenue by fiscal year

Operating leverage — margins

GrossOperatingNet

Line Item (USD)	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	FY2026	YoY Δ	4Y CAGR
Income Statement
Revenue	$134.6B	$126.5B	$130.3B	$137.3B	$148.4B	+8.1%	+2.5%
Cost of Revenue (COGS)	$85.1B	$80.0B	$81.2B	$82.4B	$89.3B	+8.3%	+1.2%
Research & Development (R&D)	$8.7B	$8.3B	$7.2B	$7.9B	$9.6B	+22.5%	+2.5%
Operating Income (EBIT)	$11.0B	$14.6B	$15.7B	$19.4B	$7.3B	−62.6%	−9.8%
Interest Expense	$774.0M	$862.0M	$1.1B	$1.3B	$1.4B	+7.3%	+16.4%
Income Tax Expense	$4.2B	$2.3B	$3.1B	$4.9B	$4.4B	−10.8%	+0.7%
GAAP Net Income	$9.8B	$10.6B	$11.1B	$17.9B	$15.0B	−16.2%	+11.2%
Diluted EPS	$0.45	$0.50	$0.54	$0.92	$0.80	−13.0%	+15.5%
Diluted Shares	21.79B	21.11B	20.36B	19.32B	19.23B	−0.4%	−3.1%
Balance Sheet
Cash & Equivalents	$33.1B	$31.8B	$39.5B	$27.4B	$25.2B	−8.3%	−6.6%
Total Current Assets	$100.7B	$101.6B	$104.3B	$92.9B	$88.5B	−4.7%	−3.2%
Total Assets	$267.5B	$255.3B	$244.4B	$248.6B	$276.8B	+11.3%	+0.9%
Total Current Liabilities	$60.5B	$56.1B	$58.4B	$60.0B	$69.1B	+15.1%	+3.3%
Total Debt (Short + Long Term)	$961.0M	$961.0M	$961.0M	$961.0M	$961.0M	+0.0%	+0.0%
Total Liabilities	$96.8B	$91.8B	$90.3B	$98.4B	$113.6B	+15.4%	+4.1%
Stockholders' Equity	$169.2B	$162.1B	$152.6B	$148.6B	$162.1B	+9.1%	−1.1%
Net Cash / (Net Debt)	$32.1B	$30.8B	$38.5B	$26.5B	$24.2B	−8.6%	−6.8%
Invested Capital	$137.0B	$131.2B	$114.1B	$122.1B	$137.9B	+12.9%	+0.2%
Cash Flow & Capital Allocation
Operating Cash Flow (OCF)	$22.5B	$29.1B	$25.3B	$22.5B	$11.0B	−51.0%	−16.3%
Stock-Based Compensation (SBC)	$3.8B	$4.5B	$2.6B	$1.9B	$1.6B	−15.8%	−19.1%
Share Repurchases (Buybacks)	$9.7B	$10.9B	$12.3B	$11.9B	$1.1B	−90.7%	−41.8%
Dividends Paid	$0	—	$2.5B	$4.0B	$4.9B	+22.0%	—

Fundamentals, income distribution and multi-year statements from SEC EDGAR filings (public domain). Valuation multiples, performance and technicals computed from Databento 1D EOD closes. For information only, not investment advice.

On the Wire

what BABA did at the next close after each story

Aug 21

Alibaba's cloud revenue rises while AI spending pressures profit

Yahoo Finance · 5:04 AM ET

−8.57%

Jul 8

Alibaba posts best day in 10 months as Chinese tech stocks look to catch up

MarketWatch · 11:49 AM ET

—

What happened · big days

24 big days in a year, and what we hold on each

A big day is a close more than 4.15% from the one before, three times BABA’s median day (1.38%). On 1 of the 24, its peer group moved the same way at least half as far. We show what we hold. We never name a cause.

every other trading daya big day, numbered in the list below±4.15%Hover a bar for its day. Click a big day to open it.

Shaded: since our stories began, Jun 10. Tap a bar for its day.

#DayBABAWhat we hold that dayGroup (median of 4) · each

1 Nov 24, 2025+5.10%
Before our storiesgroup −0.3%, did not move with it
1Nov 24, 2025+5.10%
Before our stories
−0.3% did not move with itV +0.4 · UBER −0.2 · MA −0.5 · ACN −3.3
2 Dec 1, 2025+4.42%
Before our storiesgroup −1.1%, did not move with it
2Dec 1, 2025+4.42%
Before our stories
−1.1% did not move with itACN +3.0 · UBER −1.1 · MA −1.2 · V −1.2
3 Jan 2, 2026+6.25%
Before our storiesgroup −1.3%, did not move with it
3Jan 2, 2026+6.25%
Before our stories
−1.3% did not move with itUBER +1.4 · V −1.2 · MA −1.4 · ACN −3.1
4 Jan 8, 2026+5.26%
Before our storiesgroup +0.8%, did not move with it
4Jan 8, 2026+5.26%
Before our stories
+0.8% did not move with itACN +2.9 · UBER +1.6 · MA +0.0 · V −1.0
5 Jan 12, 2026+10.17%
Before our storiesgroup −1.3%, did not move with it
5Jan 12, 2026+10.17%
Before our stories
−1.3% did not move with itACN +0.1 · UBER −0.9 · MA −1.6 · V −1.9
6 Jan 22, 2026+5.05%
Before our storiesgroup +0.7%, did not move with it
6Jan 22, 2026+5.05%
Before our stories
+0.7% did not move with itACN +1.6 · MA +1.0 · V +0.3 · UBER −2.0
7 Mar 3, 2026−4.89%
Before our storiesgroup +0.6%, did not move with it
7Mar 3, 2026−4.89%
Before our stories
+0.6% did not move with itV +0.1 · UBER +0.5 · MA +0.6 · ACN +1.9
8 Mar 19, 2026−7.09%
Before our storiesgroup +0.4%, did not move with it
8Mar 19, 2026−7.09%
Before our stories
+0.4% did not move with itUBER −1.7 · V +0.2 · MA +0.6 · ACN +4.3
9 Apr 8, 2026+4.68%
Before our storiesgroup +1.3%, did not move with it
9Apr 8, 2026+4.68%
Before our stories
+1.3% did not move with itV +2.1 · MA +1.8 · UBER +0.9 · ACN −1.8
10 May 6, 2026+6.94%
Before our storiesgroup −1.0%, did not move with it
10May 6, 2026+6.94%
Before our stories
−1.0% did not move with itUBER +8.5 · V −1.0 · MA −1.0 · ACN −2.5
11 May 13, 2026+8.18%
Before our storiesgroup −2.0%, did not move with it
11May 13, 2026+8.18%
Before our stories
−2.0% did not move with itMA −1.8 · V −1.9 · UBER −2.2 · ACN −6.0
12 May 15, 2026−6.04%
Before our storiesgroup +0.9%, did not move with it
12May 15, 2026−6.04%
Before our stories
+0.9% did not move with itUBER +0.5 · MA +0.9 · V +1.0 · ACN +3.0
13 Jun 2, 2026+4.32%
Before our storiesgroup −3.2%, did not move with it
13Jun 2, 2026+4.32%
Before our stories
−3.2% did not move with itV −1.7 · UBER −2.9 · MA −3.5 · ACN −5.3
14 Jun 25, 2026−4.74%
Nothing on BABAgroup −1.6%, did not move with it
14Jun 25, 2026−4.74%
Nothing on BABANo BABA story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−1.6% did not move with itACN −2.6 · UBER −2.2 · MA −1.1 · V −0.5
15 Jul 8, 2026+11.05%
1 storygroup −1.8%, did not move with it
15Jul 8, 2026+11.05%
1 story “Alibaba just had its best day in 10 months. Is it time for China techs to catch up?” · MarketWatch
−1.8% did not move with itUBER −1.0 · V −1.3 · MA −2.2 · ACN −3.5
16 Jul 15, 2026+4.78%
Nothing on BABAgroup +0.3%, did not move with it
16Jul 15, 2026+4.78%
Nothing on BABANo BABA story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+0.3% did not move with itACN +1.8 · UBER +0.8 · V −0.3 · MA −0.5
17 Jul 20, 2026+4.67%
Nothing on BABAgroup +0.6%, did not move with it
17Jul 20, 2026+4.67%
Nothing on BABANo BABA story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+0.6% did not move with itACN +0.8 · MA +0.7 · V +0.6 · UBER −0.4
18 Jul 31, 2026+5.10%
Nothing on BABAgroup −0.0%, did not move with it
18Jul 31, 2026+5.10%
Nothing on BABANo BABA story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−0.0% did not move with itACN +1.6 · UBER −0.0 · V −0.0 · MA −0.7
19 Aug 21, 2026−8.57%
1 storygroup +1.3%, did not move with it
19Aug 21, 2026−8.57%
1 story “Alibaba’s (BABA) AI Bet Crushes Profit While Cloud Revenue Soars” · Yahoo Finance
+1.3% did not move with itUBER +0.3 · MA +1.2 · V +1.4 · ACN +2.2
20 Sep 18, 2026+4.33%
Nothing on BABAgroup −0.5%, did not move with it
20Sep 18, 2026+4.33%
Nothing on BABANo BABA story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−0.5% did not move with itMA −0.1 · V −0.4 · UBER −0.5 · ACN −4.7
21 Sep 23, 2026−4.74%
Nothing on BABAgroup −0.1%, did not move with it
21Sep 23, 2026−4.74%
Nothing on BABANo BABA story, brief or results filing in our record that day
−0.1% did not move with itUBER −0.7 · V −0.1 · ACN −0.1 · MA +0.7
22 Oct 5, 2026+4.68%
Nothing on BABAgroup +2.1%, did not move with it
22Oct 5, 2026+4.68%
Nothing on BABANo BABA story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+2.1% did not move with itV +2.5 · MA +2.2 · UBER +2.0 · ACN −1.9
23 Oct 9, 2026+5.36%
Nothing on BABAgroup +2.2%, did not move with it
23Oct 9, 2026+5.36%
Nothing on BABANo BABA story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+2.2% did not move with itV +2.8 · MA +2.5 · UBER +1.8 · ACN +0.3
24 Nov 4, 2026+4.91%
Nothing on BABAgroup +3.9%, moved with BABA
24Nov 4, 2026+4.91%
Nothing on BABANo BABA story, brief or results filing in our record that day
+3.9% moved with BABAUBER +4.9 · MA +3.9 · V +3.8 · ACN +3.8

A story on the same day is not a cause, and a group move is not proof either. Group: the median of V, MA, ACN and UBER that day, the largest companies in BABA’s SEC industry; “moved with BABA” means the same direction and at least half the size.

Same industry

BABA against four same-industry peers, a year at 100

BABA is down 36.7% in a year. Visa is up 25.8%, Mastercard 18.8%, Accenture 7.5% and Uber is down 25.2%. All four did more. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, on a log scale, so the same percentage move is the same height on every line.

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BABA −36.7%. Visa +25.8%, Mastercard +18.8%, Accenture +7.5%, Uber −25.2%. Weekly closes, Nov 7, 2025 = 100, log scale.

Share this chart

End-of-day closes (Databento EOD), the last close of each week. The four peers are the largest US-listed companies by market value in BABA’s SEC industry (Services-Business Services, Nec) with a year of closes. It shows what the closes did; a move here is not a cause, a forecast or a call.

The Wire at 7 AM ET, free. Top stories with a bull and a bear case on each, every morning. No account needed.

V	Visa	$744.0B	−3.20%
MA	Mastercard	$609.4B	−2.49%
ACN	Accenture	$167.1B	+0.34%
UBER	Uber	$142.7B	−1.56%
PDD	PDD Holdings	$121.8B	+2.19%
MELI	Mercadolibre	$88.2B	−12.05%
DASH	DoorDash	$87.3B	−9.40%
EBAY	Ebay	$55.7B	−1.44%